The Hot Tips Collection: Page 3

Using Match PlayChips

A lot of casinos will use match play chips in a promotion to get you to play there. Sometimes these are coupons, or they may be special chips, like the ones the Admiral uses in St. Louis. The requirement is that you must "match" the chip with a regular one, so your total bet is twice the value of the match play chip. For example, at the Admiral they give away $5 match play chips on a fairly regular basis to members of their slot club. If a Blackjack player places a bet, s/he can use one match play chip along with a regular chip and if the hand is won, the player will receive $10 in payoff and the dealer will pick up the match play chip. This makes the match play chip worth about $2.50, since it's roughly a 50-50 chance that the player will win the hand. At many places, such a bet would be paid only $12.50 if the player gets a "natural"; $7.50 for the "regular" chip and just even money of $5 on the match play chip. Doubling with these chips should, if possible, be done using only regular chips for the extra bet. Let's say you have 5 match play chips, bet one along with a regular chip and get an 11 against the dealer's 6.

Do not put out another regular chip and a match play chip; put out two regular chips, because this gives you the opportunity to double for more money. Since the original bet is worth about $7.50, you're now doubling with $10. Remember, you're doubling because you have a big advantage in doing so; get the most you can from the situation.

Doubling With 11

Many Blackjack players don't understand that a player -- even a card-counter -- will lose more hands than the dealer, but we make our money by winning more bets than the dealer. For example, the dealer pays us 1.5 to 1 when we have a "natural", but we only pay our original bet when the dealer has one. Also, the dealer cannot split pairs or double, so those plays are very important to winning at the game. Receiving a pair is a relatively rare event, but opportunities to double come up fairly often, so it's important to make the right play.

The strategy for doubling with 11 is simple, but I see it misplayed all the time, particularly against a dealer's up card of 10 (or face). A similar situation occurs when the dealer shows an Ace and doesn't have a natural, so let's examine these situations.

Doubling against a 10

A great majority of players are afraid to double their 11 against a dealer's 10, probably because they think the dealer has a 20, but A) that won't always be the case, and B) there will be plenty of times you'll get a 10 and beat that dealer anyway. The statistics here are significant. Just hitting an 11 against a dealer's 10 will return about 11.7% of all the money you bet in that situation. That means that your "expectation" is to win, on average, 11.7% of your bet. While you will win or lose say, $10 on that hand, in the long run, the result of all situations where you double 11 against a 10 will show a profit of 11.7% of the monies bet.

By doubling you are, admittedly, increasing your risk since you must put another bet out there, so you will win or lose twice as much. This has an effect of increasing your bankroll fluctuations, but it's the cost you pay for the chance to make more money. By doubling, you will win on fewer hands (since you can't draw another card, like you can when you just hit), but the total return is higher. Since you should always double for an amount equal to your original bet, you'll now win less often, but on more money. For doubling 11 against a 10, the expectation is to win about 17.6% of the original bet ( 8.8% on the hand, but with two bets out there). In the course of play of 10,000 hands of Blackjack, the dealer will have an up card of 10 an average 4/13 of the time, or 30%. (No, that doesn't happen only to you!)

Of those times, you will have an 11 about one time in twenty. So, in the course of that 10,000 hands, a chance to double will appear (to be more accurate) about 136 times. At an average bet of $10, the total "action" in those situations will be $1360. By hitting, your expectation is $1360 X .117 = $159. By doubling, your expectation is $1360 X .176 = $239. That's an $80 difference.

As a woman said once at a table "I hate to gamble with this hand". The dealer wisely answered "M'am, if you don't double, then you're gambling."

Doubling Against an Ace

In this situation, a whole new set of problems come up. Many players think that, because the dealer has checked to see if s/he has a "natural " and doesn't find it, they can now double anything and expect to win. Well, here's a newsflash: The dealer will break with an Ace up only 17% of the time! The other 83% of hands, s/he will end with a 17 or higher, so don't feel you can double with impunity in that situation. I see many players double a hand of ten against a dealer's Ace, but basic strategy says to hit. By hitting, you have an expectation of winning about 8%; by doubling you drop that down to just below zero. The players who do that are taking a winning hand and turning it into a loser!

However, doubling with an 11 against an Ace is sometimes the proper play. In those cases where the dealer hits A-6, basic strategy says to double, but the gain is very small for a multi-deck game. However, in a single deck game , it's a large gain and you should always double 11 against an Ace whether the dealer hits A-6 or not.

Joker Poker Strategy

Because this machine only pays for a pair of Kings or better, some strategy adjustments are necessary when playing a hand which has a King or Ace in it as opposed to other "high" cards: a Ten, Jack or Queen. A good example is a hand which has a Joker in it along with 3 other cards of the same suit, one of which is a high card. The natural reaction is to treat it like a four-card flush and draw to that. But, you should only go for the flush if the high card is a King or Ace. If it's a four-card Joker flush with a Ten, Jack or Queen, dump the low cards and hold just the Joker and Ten, Jack or Queen in order to go for a 3, 4 or 5-of-a-kind or a wild Royal. An example is below:

Dealt: 8 Hearts, 2 Hearts, Joker, King (or Ace) Hearts, 9 Clubs
Hold: All but the 9 Clubs and go for the flush
Dealt: 8 Hearts, 2 Hearts, Joker, Jack (or Ten or Queen) Hearts, 9 Clubs
Hold: Joker, Jack (or Ten or Queen) Hearts

Lotteries and the three digit number?

I'm pretty well convinced that lotteries are strictly random (or should be if they want anyone to play) and the various states which offer them go to great lengths to see that they remain that way. Consequently, there's no "system" one can use to increase the chances of winning. I think a more important question to answer is the odds of winning a lottery versus the payout. For example, if we have a lottery where there is one winning number which pays $250 on a $1 bet chosen from 500 possible combinations, that lottery is returning 50%. And a 50% return is terrible; the worst game in a casino gives back 75%! My thoughts? Stay away from lotteries, but if you can't, go to www.shareware.com and down load some lottery management software. Nothing (I repeat: nothing) can predict a random number, in spite of the fact that we humans try to see a pattern where none exists. Some of the software out there will make it seem you can, but I always fall back on the Final Argument: If they really can predict winning numbers in a lottery, they don't need your money.

Practicing Let It Ride

There is a new, inexpensive software version of "Let It Ride" (LIR) available to Windows users which can give you a feel for the game at a risk of just $5; the cost of registering. The program is called "Let It Ride for 95" and it's produced by Silver Disc Software. Available in a .zip file through ZD Net (www.zdnet.com), it sets up quickly and performs exactly like the casino game. Since LIR is a game of skill, a player can cut the house advantage through the proper play of the hands received, but even the best player cannot overcome the built-in edge of 2.8%; fairly large for a table game.

LIR pays only for Tens or better, so you can expect to lose about 65% of all the hands you play. The biggest mistake I see players make is to bet on a pair of 2's through 9's in the hopes of getting two pair or three-of-a-kind. That's a serious error; you should only "Let It Ride" if you have a pair of 10's or better. The other proper plays for LIR are available in a booklet called "Expert Strategy for Let It Ride". It's available for $4.95 (postage paid) from Compu-Flyers, 5025 S. Eastern Ave. (16), Las Vegas, NV 89119.

If you want to play this game, please get the book, learn the basic strategy on your home version and then go into it with your eyes wide open. You're bucking a significant house edge, so do all you can to reduce it.

The Grind System For Craps

Hello again, Gamemaster!
I have devised the following "grind" system for craps:

After the come-out roll, place the 6 & 8 for $24 each. After the first hit, lower your bets on the 6 AND 8 to $6 each (At this point, you have locked in a profit!). Now with each subsequent 6 or 8 that hits, you press whatever number just came in by $6,and you pocket the difference. The only thing that hurts you is if the shooter sevens-out too early before the first 6 or 8. Please tell me what you think of this system.

Thanks,
-Michael

Dear Michael,
Thanks for telling me about your system. Since the odds of a 7 showing before an 8 or 6 are 6 to 5 and a place bet on 6 or 8 pays 7 to 6, the casino's edge is a relatively low 1.52% on those bets. Since a pass line bet has a 1.41% edge, you're giving up a bit, but in return you get the flexibilty of removing or changing your bets and you don't have to deal with the comeout roll; only a 7 hurts you.

It's a pretty good system; I played it for several hours and while I lost about $150 in the beginning, I came back to finish with a $293 profit. Of course, in a sample of many thousands of hands, the result will be that I would lose about 1.5% of all the money I bet, but short term you are at least giving yourself a fair chance to win.

Another advantage of this system is that it puts a fair amount of money in play for comp ratings. I was rated on my play and the "box" had me down as a $25 chip player, even though my average bet was probably about $18 or so. Just throw "greens" at them a lot and they'll think like that. Good if the casino of your choice gives cash back on your action; be sure to ask if they do and make sure you have a player's card so your play is recorded. Comps can play a big part in getting some of the "vig." back and --if you're a Blackjack player -- it looks good on your record that you "gambled" some. The dealers aren't too thrilled with a system like this since they have some work to do, but bet a $1 hard 8 for 'em now and again and they'll smile.

I am in the process of writing a review on a fantastic piece of craps software called the Mini-Casino Planner by International Gaming Software. A shareware version will be available through the "Free Gaming Downloads" section of RGT's "Incredible Link Collection" in about a week. It costs $50. for the registered version but it's worth every penny. It will run simulations like this incredibly fast, so you can get an idea of how your system will do in the long run.

So, thanks for the tip and continued good luck at the tables.

Joker Poker?

I haven't spent much time talking about this version of Video Poker, simply because I have never played it in the casino; it's a game with a confusing set of payouts, so I never know if I'm playing a good machine or not. But, after getting a demo copy of "Three-Way" video poker, I've done a bit of homework and can pass a few tips on to you. After playing this full-pay (100.6% return) version, I can see why these games are now hard to find. With a bit of luck, you can get on one of these and spend days playing! No wonder the casinos are pulling them out. With a decent slot club return, you can make some $$$ at this. Even if things don't go your way, you can hang in there, but it is a volatile game and a fairly large bankroll is required to really go after them.

But the sad part is that few of the full-pay versions have survived. Most casinos have cut the payouts --especially by dropping the Four-of-a-Kind pay from 100 to 75 -- so you have to be careful of which game you play. You can expect, on average, to hit Four-of-a-Kind about once every 125 hands, so that reduced payout is costly. At a rate of 500 hands an hour, it's worth 4 X 25 = 100 coins an hour or $25 for a quarter machine! Using those figures, you will bet $625 an hour and with an edge of .6%, your expected return is $3.75. Take away $25 an hour and now you're at a loss of $21.75, or a return of only 96.5% Ouch!

So, be sure to check the payout of any Joker's Wild machines before you play. As always, should you have a question about the machines in your area, e-mail me the complete pay schedule and I'll get back to you with the expected payout.

Blackjack: Splitting 4's

More often than not, I see players correctly put up another bet when they have a pair of 4's against a dealer's 6, but when it comes time to act they almost invariably do the wrong thing -- they double. If the casino where you are playing allows doubling after splitting pairs, the proper move is to split those fours, no matter if the dealers rolls his eyes to heaven or not. By doubling the hand, you can expect to win 10.3% of all the money bet in that situation. By splitting, your expectation is 16.1%, a considerable improvement.

If doubling after splitting is not permitted, you should just hit.. The expectation for hitting is 12.4%, whereas doubling carries an expected win of just 10.3%. Don't be tempted to split the pair where double after split isn't allowed, since the edge you have is just 3.2%.

All of this also applies if the dealer is showing a 5; the return is a bit less, but it's still best to split those 4's if double after split is allowed. By the way, these statistics allow for the extra bets you're making, so don't think that you're making less of a percentage on more money; that's been figured in.

Video Poker Tips

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