The Hot Tips Collection: Page 2

Insuring A Blackjack

Virtually every book on Blackjack admonishes you to not take insurance unless you're a card counter; they are correct. Just about every casino employee will tell you that you should always insure if you hold a "natural"; it's the only sure bet in the place. They are right up to a point; it is a sure thing, but in the long run it will cost you $$$$. But if you are a "recreational" player, maybe taking a sure thing is not such a bad idea.

Just what is the cost of insuring a Blackjack? Let's assume your average bet is $10 and you play BJ an average 200 hours a year; either 4 hours a week, or 8 hours a day for five longer stays at a resort casino. Whatever the combination, you will likely play about 10,000 hands of Blackjack in those 200 hours. Statistics show that you will receive a "natural" once every 21 hands, on average, so you will get something like 476 naturals in 10,00 hand of play. The dealer will show an Ace 1/13th of the time, so you'll have to decide to insure or not insure about 476 Ö 13 = 36 times. The dealer will actually have a natural only 4/13ths of those times, for a total of 11. Thus, with a $10 bet , you'll take even money (the net result of insuring a natural) 36 times for a gain of $360. If you do not insure, you'll be paid $15 x 25 or $375. Thus, the cost of insuring a Blackjack will net out to $15 over the course of a year. Considering that you're betting $10 x 10,000 or $100,000 in that time, $15 is small potatoes. My advice is to take even money whenever your bet is above your minimum; make those larger bets 'sure things."

Electronic Keno

Each time I go to a casino, I'm fascinated by the crowds of people who play the electronic keno games. On any given day, virtually every machine is in action with their peculiar bong! bong! resounding in the background. I long ago learned that keno is simply a lottery with a 20-25% house edge, so I'm proud to say that I've never played it in my life. But, the electronic version is different - no, I still don't play it - but the house edge is much lower, simply because the overhead to the casino is lower. A typical casino keno parlor costs a lot of money to run and their percentage of the take reflects that. But, if their only cost is the price of a machine and its maintenance, a keno game can be treated just like a slot machine, so its return will usually reflect that. Don't get me wrong...these are not the bargains of the century, but they are a better deal that the average keno parlor. Much like video poker, electronic keno's house percentage is based on the pay schedule. Understanding that will enable you to cut the house edge to a relative minimum. In a review of local games, it seems that most keno machines return about 92% of the money put into them. Not in the league of video poker, but not out of line for traditional slots.

The mathematics of keno are complicated, but in the November 3, 1995 issue of Card Player magazine, columnist Lee Frome has done the gaming public a big service by providing a matrix which will allow you to evaluate the games in your area. He did that with a machine he found at a major Las Vegas strip casino and what he discovered was very interesting. I won't steal his thunder (back issues are available for $2.95 plus $1 postage from Card Player at 3140 Polaris Ave. Suite 8, Las Vegas, NV 89102), but his numbers have answered a lot of questions for me about electronic keno. If you ever see a bank of these machines in action, you'll probably notice that most people are playing "7-spot" games. I always thought that people chose a 7-spot because 7 is a lucky number. Once again, I have underestimated the inherent "feel" the gaming public has for the machines they play. Most people play 7-spots, not because it has the best percentage payback, nor because it's a "lucky" number; they play it because it's the game which produces the largest frequency of winners! About 1 in every 4 plays will produce some sort of payoff if 7 spots are marked. In contrast, only about 1 play in 10 provides a payoff on an 8-spot play. The casino knows this, of course, so the overall return from a 7-spot play is less than that of an 8-spot, but only by a small percentage.

The best play for frequent hits? The 4-spot. The best play for overall return? The 9-spot (depending upon the play schedule in your area). The worst play? Well, you should get this article and show it to anyone you know who has even thought of playing electronic keno. You'll be doing them a big favor.

Video Poker-Tiny Tip

At "Jacks or Better" video poker, break up a four-card flush if three of the cards are the Jack, Queen and King; otherwise hold all four and go for the flush.

A Craps Tip

At craps, the odds bet you've added to your Come bet (a wise move) does not work on the comeout roll. That's because players hate to lose the entire bet when a winner 7 is rolled. But, the dice don't know you have a bet working, so they're just going to follow the laws of probability. You should tell the dealer: "Odds work on the comeout," and s/he will place an "On" button on your bets. That way, if the shooter throws a point number, you'll be paid even money for your Come bet and true odds on your odds bet. Why give up the extra edge you gain from as odds bet just because you're rooting for a 7?

Super Sevens Sidebet at Blackjack

If you must play the Super Sevens sidebet at Blackjack (a 10%+ casino edge), bet only when there is an "excess" of sevens left in the deck. Count the number of sevens which appear during play and correlate that to the number of decks which have been played. There are 4 sevens in a deck; if half a deck has been played (practice estimating the number of cards in the discard tray) and no sevens have appeared, there are two "extra" sevens remaining in the decks to be played. With two extra sevens, the casino edge has been brought down to zero, so you can make the Super Sevens bet ($1) with expectation of breaking even in the long run.

How Much Should I Tip

Tipping the dealers in a casino is not likely to be of any advantage, since most dealers can do nothing to help you win and heaven knows that the cards or dice don't even know you're there, so tipping won't have any affect on them. But, we all know that the dealers depend upon tips for a living, so we're going to do it anyway. I've seen Blackjack players betting a $1 on each hand for the dealer, along with a $10 bet for themselves which amounts to an additional 10% edge against them! In my experience, the best session you'll ever have at the Blackjack tables is to win about 15% of all you bet. That is, if you're betting $10 a hand and you're playing 60 hands an hour. If a player is tipping just $1 per hand in that situation, s/he will have tipped $60, or two-thirds of the profit. That's being awfully generous, especially since they won't give you money back if you start to lose. My recommendation is to bet no more than $2 as a tip after you receive a "Blackjack"; since that will occur - on average - about once every 20 hands, you'll restrict yourself to tipping about $3 an hour.

At Craps, a nice way to tip is to make a "hardway" bet for the dealers when you're the shooter and your point is one if the numbers which can be made the hard way (4, 6, 8, 10). By making a $1 bet for the dealers in that manner, they'll make a nice tip if you hit, and yet you won't be overdoing it.

"Dilemma Hands" at Video Poker

Sometimes we are dealt a hand which gives us several choices (none of them great), but like all hands we need to play it in a way to give us the maximum return. What would you do here, assuming this was a 9/6 Jacks or

Here's the mathematical "expectation" of those choices:
Hold all three hearts: 2.234
Hold Ace, 10: 2.219
Hold Ace only: 2.304

The "expectation" is the average return you'll receive on a 5-coin wager. You can see that the highest return comes from holding the Ace alone! The reasons for that are rather complex, but it breaks down to this: The possibility of a Royal from holding the Ace, 10 is so remote that while you eliminate the Royal entirely (by discarding the 10), such a move increases your chances for four Aces, other flushes, etc. by just enough to make holding the Ace alone the better play.

Now, I'll admit that it's a very close call; holding the Ace, 10 would not be a major mistake, (though that's the worst choice up there!) but by doing so, you would be contributing to the casino's edge over you and we both know they don't need any of your money.

Counting Cards at Spanish 21

Double A-8?

Proper basic strategy at Blackjack says to DOUBLE A-8 against a dealer's upcard of 6 where the dealer must hit A-6 and to STAND where the dealer must stand on A-6 .

100.6% Return at "Deuces Wild"

The "Deuces Wild" video poker machine returns 100.6% (long-term) of the money put into it, IF you play proper strategy AND if the pay schedule looks like this:

Royal Flush..............4000
Four Deuces.............1000
Wild Royal.................125
5 of a Kind..................75
Straight Flush............45
4 of a Kind.................25
Full House.................15
Flush.........................10
Straight.....................10
3 of a Kind..................5

Beware of machines which pay 20 for 4-of-a-Kind. The long-term payback is cut to 94%.

Stand or Double with A-7?

At Blackjack, you always stand with a hand of A-7, but you'll make more money if you DOUBLE against a dealer's upcard of 3-6 and HIT against 9 and 10. By standing, you win at a rate of 9.9%, but if you'll do it my way, you'll win 14.13%.

Video Poker Hot Tip

At Jacks or Better video poker, break up a high pair (J,Q,K,A) in order to draw 2 cards to a suited J,Q,K. For any other combination of a 3-card Royal, hold the high pair.

Yet Another Blackjack Hot Tip

Proper basic strategy at Blackjack says to HIT your 11 against a dealer's upward of 6, if the dealer is required to stand on A-6 and to DOUBLE 11 against a 6 if the dealer must hit A-6 .

Hate to see players split 10s?

Did you know that proper basic strategy at Face Up Blackjack says to split 10s (which includes all face cards, whether they match or not) against a dealer's 13, 14, 15 or 16? By the way, the casino edge in this game against a player who uses perfect basic strategy is 2.0% as compared to an edge of 0.4% at their "regular" Blackjack game

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