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Sitting at Third Base, Winning at Video Blackjack and Blackjack in Australia

GameMaster,
I read much of your Blackjack strategy lessons on the web, but I didn't notice anything there that directly addresses two techniques I have tried, nor in any other resources I have looked into on the web. I haven't played enough to really say I've fully tested the success or failure of these techniques, but I'd be interested in your thoughts.

As intro, I should add that I currently do not count cards and also that my aim is to have fun and come out ahead in the long run, but not necessarily to win big. And of course, I only use money I can afford to lose.

First, I try only to play in games where the dealer does not deal the hole card before every other player has stayed or busted, and I ALWAYS play the left-most seat, even if I have to wait for it. As such, I know that when I stand, the card I would have received will go to the dealer. I haven't seen any materials specifically analyzing this sort of game where the left-most player seems to have different odds in a given hand than the others (since, for example, with 14 and the dealer showing 9, the player knows that any bust would be a win for the dealer, but other seats don't get that knowledge.) In this circumstance, I tend to be conservative, so I only hit at 12 or over if any bust is a sure dealer win. I could ratchet that to bust+1, bust+2 or whatever, but currently I play very conservative. My objective in this technique is to reduce the effects of chance in determining the best play. Statistically, I suspect bust+1 would be better than my current level (so take on 15 with a dealer 9 showing), but I haven't done the analysis to risk it.

The second thing is how I manage money. Since I don't count, I instead play versus the standard deviation and commit a variation of the heinous gambler's sin of increasing my bet when losing hands. Specifically, one venue I play has a $2 minimum and $20 max bet. I prefer a larger spread, but I seem to do OK (so far - but statistically not a huge sample yet - maybe 1000 hands). I always start at the minimum bet. As long as I get wins mixed with any losses, my bet doesn't change, though I do split and double based on the cards (not identical to your charts, but similar enough.) If I have 3 losses with no intervening wins (pushes are not counted either way), I then switch my betting mode. The next hand I bet the minimum $2, then double with each consecutive loss (again pushes ignored) until $16. Since the max at this venue is $20, a loss at $16 I then move up to $20. If I lose at $20, I will drop back to $2 and start over as if I had just had a win (with a loss for the bad streak of $56). Using this technique, as long as the house odds are no greater than 51% to my 49% per hand, which I consider poor if my play is reasonable, I have calculated the net odds to me to be positive. Where a larger spread exists allowing more doubling of the bet, I will continue to the max. However, due to the larger $'s at risk, I have not chosen to reduce the number of non-doubled losing bets before going into the doubling.

I'd be interested both in any statistical flaws you see with these approaches (including the left-most hand implications) as well as any thoughts on the concept behind my money management. Since I tend to expect winning streaks to be percentage-wise only a reasonably few percentage points less frequent then losing streaks, the non-statistical view of the concept behind my approach is that the winning streaks are where I make the money and I am all but eliminating the effect of losing streaks except in the extremely small % case where I lose 7 or 8 consecutive hands. Though the effect of 8 consecutive losses offsets 28 winning hands, the occurrence of moving that far out the probability curve seems to me to favor me over the long haul. (The effect of 7 consecutive losses followed by a win is down $16, or 8 winning $2 hands, but still, the frequency of moving that far out the curve should be very low over the long run).

Ed

Dear Ed,

Whether the dealer takes a hole card before or after you play your hand makes no difference. Trying to 'psyche' the play by trying to figure the card the dealer will get is no different than trying to figure what the dealer already has. This could work if you were at a single-deck game dealt to the last few cards, but no such game exists. In short, there's no advantage for you to sit at 'third base'. You should play proper basic strategy, since your 'conservative' play is just giving the house a bigger edge over you.

As for your money management technique, you're correct in saying that the sample is too small. If you were to run a simulation of your technique for several million hands, you'd discover that your losses would be a function of your average bet times the house edge (about .5%) times the number of hands played. I'd guess that your average bet is probably $6 a hand, so at a rate of 60 hands/hour, you're playing with an expectation of about -$1.80/hr. And that's if you stop the conservative play and use only proper basic strategy. Remember, no money management technique alone will allow you to overcome the house edge for very long.

Trust me, you are obviously intelligent and can easily learn how to count cards. Do that, and you'll become a long-term winner.

GameMaster,
I have a few questions for you they may be silly but a was just wondering: Does this system work with counting cards and all?

Yes, card counting does work. If it didn't, the casinos wouldn't spend so much time trying to identify counters.

Are you a professional?

I pay taxes as a professional Blackjack and video poker player, but that is not my sole source of income.

Do the pros use that system?

Many pros use the hi/lo system that I teach; I did not invent it.

I asked if the system worked because this is on the Internet, and I never hear anybody winning much on blackjack, do people know about this?

Card counting by various methods has been around for about 35 years. Few people actually make $$$ at it, because most people don't want to put in the time it takes to learn it and/or are under funded, impatient, or a combination of the two. It's not easy, but it can be done.

GameMaster,
I have been studying blackjack for some time now and believe winning can be done. Presently I don't have the cash to gamble at a $5 table.

I have, however, started playing video blackjack and found I can often do win using basic strategy only. I was looking for any advice you might have to maximize my winnings.

Michael

Dear Michael,
The most important issue you have to deal with is rather or not the video BJ machine you play pays 3 to 2 for a 'Blackjack.' If it doesn't, the casino has an edge over you of 2% or so and your results to this point can be attributed to luck. If the game does pay 3 to 2 on a 'natural', card counting won't work, but the game may be beatable in the long run.

GameMaster,
I'm a little confused. I thought the whole point of card counting was to memorize the cards so you know what is left in the deck.

That's virtually impossible in a single-deck game and absolutely impossible in a six-deck game.

How does adding up point values help you? 2 5 K A 3 ok so that's 1 2 1 0 1 SO WHAT! I just don't GET how that helps you.

It identifies when there are a higher proportion of 10s and Aces (which is beneficial to the player) left in the deck.

And if someone is really good at this and wins lots of money? Why would the casinos permit this?

They usually don't.

I think they are screwing with us in a way because they wouldn't let people win that easily!

They don't have to screw with us, because it isn't easy.

And if card counting is so SIMPLE why doesn't EVERYONE learn it and win money?

Because gamblers, by definition, what something for nothing. Secondly, it isn't that easy.

And after one game does the dealer HAVE to discard those cards or does he just put him back in the deck?

In a 'real' casino, they have to put the cards in a discard tray or shuffle the deck(s) after each hand. Casinos don't make any $$$ while the dealer's shuffling.

That would be a very easy solution for the casinos wouldn't it? Just to keep putting the cards back?

They do that at on-line casinos and some R/T casinos use 'continuous-shuffle' machines.

GameMaster,
I have just recently found your website and begun your lessons on Blackjack. Let me say right now your site is a godsend. I begun to play at "Casino Canberra (Australia)" and after having my bankroll go up and down observed the play of other players and realized there was some form of methodology to their play. I have stopped playing for the moment until I have learnt all of your lessons well enough to go back and be a serious contender. In the interim I have a few questions to ask:

1. In Australia the casino's all seem to use 8 decks; am I still able to apply your rules for multitask games where in your lessons it refers to 6 pack games?

Yes, the multi-deck strategy is for two or more decks.

2. I have played at the "Caribbean Sands On-line" and applied the basic principals but lost very quickly. I have read in their description of the game that they use 8 decks but reshuffle after every hand. From what I have read in your lessons (I'm up to lesson 4) this would be a disadvantage to me. Should I stop playing at the online site and just continue with my lessons and then go to Casino Canberra ?

Card counting is ineffective when the deck(s) are shuffled after every hand.

3. In Australia there is always so called experts at the table and are quite outspoken about how other people play their hands at the table and how it affects them in the long run. I have made decisions based on the basic play and had players and even dealers raise their eyebrows at the play i.e. doubling on A, 7 3 thru 6. I have just ignored them. I suppose I just need some reassurance that what I am doing with this particular hand in the long run is correct?

It most definitely is. How others play their hands at the table will not affect the long term, simply because their mistakes will help as often as they hurt. People only think others affect their play because they want to blame someone else for their losses. Play according to Basic Strategy and, if that causes others to complain, don't let it bother you. This happened to me many times and once, after hitting an A-7 against a 10 and busting, another player said to me: "That was the wrong play." My response was: "If you think I played that hand incorrectly, this game is going to cost you a lot of money". A few hands later, he left.

4. Once I have finished up to lesson 4 and if I apply the A, 5 count do you think I would be ready for some play or should I just use the A, 5 count to experiment and learn and wait until I can count properly?

The Ace-5 count is only marginally effective against an 8-deck shoe. Learn the Hi/Lo count instead.

6. In one of the lessons you mentioned a program available on the net that could help with the count. Do you know the website URL for this site?

Unfortunately, that site is now inactive. But just do it at home with 'real' cards and you'll learn just as quickly.

I would appreciate any other input you can offer, I am prepared to spend whatever time is needed to learn properly.
Kind regards

Shane

I have a feeling you're going to do very, very well. Don't hesitate to contact me again if I can help.

GameMaster,
I even hate to ask this question because it is so stupid but I don't know you so here goes: What exactly is the 9/6 video pay, etc?
Thank you

Dear Darlene,
The only 'stupid' question is the one you don't ask. It's never a problem to help our readers. The 9/6 is a kind of shorthand that we use to describe video poker games, in most cases it's for Jacks or Better. It is the pay out for 1 coin played on the Full House (9 for 1) and the Flush (6 for 1). From that pay schedule, we know the long-term payback of the machine. Thus, a 9/6 Jacks or Better machine pays back 99.5% if played properly, whereas an 8/5 Jacks or Better machine only returns 97.3%. We also use these to describe such games as Bonus Poker, where the 8/5 version returns 99.1%, but the 7/5 version only returns 98.0% and Double Bonus where the 10/7 version returns 100.15%, but the 9/7 version returns only 99.1%. Game manufacturers manipulate the pay offs on Full Houses, Flushes and Straights, primarily because those hands occur with similar frequency and, by adding or dropping one coin from the payout, the total return of the game goes up or down about 1%. You should be aware, however, that in games with wild cards, the payout on other hands are usually changed. I did a series of articles, which are called "Pick a Game" parts 1-5, that show you the various pay schedules and total return of many popular VP games. It can be found in the "Video Poker Bible" page of my site.

Hot Tip of the Month:

Did you know the Blackjack dealer's ending hand will average 18.23? That's why you can't sit fat and happy with A-7 when she has a 9, 10 or Ace showing. Proper basic strategy says to hit, but few of you do it.

-the GameMaster

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