One of the challenges of video poker is evaluating new games in a casino enviornment. If you're on a trip somewhere and you see a game with a large progressive jackpot, how can you quickly tell if you should invest some $$$ in the game? It's not likely that you'll have a laptop computer with evaluation software with you and the machine may be a new version which isn't covered by any of the video poker books which are available. This is the time to do what I call a 'field evaluation'. My goal is to first determine whether the machine provides a reasonable return and then I want to play it as accurately as possible. Opportunities arise all the time, yet most players ignore them if the pay schedule is unfamiliar. But a recent experience of mine may convince you otherwise. I was at a local casino where I saw a machine whose pay schedule was only vaguely familiar, but I did a quick evaluation which convinced me the long term return made the play attractive and, as luck would have it, I hit the Royal for over $4900. Did I know the exact return of the machine? No. Did I know the exact strategy for playing the game? No. But I knew the total return was high enough to make up for any playing mistakes I might make, so the venture was a reasonable 'gamble'.

So, how do I quickly figure the return on a machine? For most, it's very easy, because what usually attracts my attention is a large progressive Royal. I know, for most Jacks or Better-style games that a Royal will occur about once every 40,000 hands and from that, it's easy to figure that a 4000-coin Royal adds 2% to the total return of the game. Thus, if the Royal is at 5000-coins, it's 25% larger, so its contribution to the overall return of the game has gone up to 2.5%. Put another way, a 1000-coin ($250 in a quarter game and $1000 in a dollar game) increase in a Royal ups the total return by .5%. But remember, this applies only to Jacks or Better-type games where two-pair pays 2 for 1, a straight pays 4 for 1 and a flush pays no more than 6 for 1. Other games, such as Deuces Wild, have a different rate of occurance for Royals, so different numbers apply and I'll handle those in future articles. Back to our example. If the game is a 9/6 Jacks, I know the base return is 99.54%, so a 5000-coin Royal moves the total return to 100+%. But what if the machine isn't a 9/6 format? For example, if it's an 8/5 format, how big must the Royal be to return 100%? Rather than supply a simple answer which one can easily memorize, let me show you the complete process.

The total return on the game has been reduced because the Full House and Flush pay less. Just like the Royal, changes in the payout of any hand will add or subtract from the total payback. Since a player utilizing proper playing strategy can expect to receive a Full House once every 90 hands on average, it has a probability of 1 divided by 90 or .011. It follows then that a reduction of the payout from 9 for 1 to 8 for 1 will reduce the overall return by 1.1%. A Flush will occur once every 87 hands which gives us a probability of .0114, so a reduction of 1 subtracts 1.14% from the overall return. If a 9/6 Jacks or Better game has a long term return of 99.54 %, an 8/5 game has a return of 99.54 minus 1.1, minus 1.14 = 97.3%. So now we know we need 2.7% from the progressive Royal to get the return up to 100%. Since each 1000 coins over the 4000 'reset' level adds .5% and we need 2.7%, it will take 5.4 'units' (2.7 divided by .5) or 5400 more coins to give us a 100% return. Thus, on a quarter game a Royal of 9400 coins or $2350 is needed to get the long term return on an 8/5 Jacks game to 100%.

What I've detailed above is the way I do a field evaluation of a game. On the Jacks or Better games, the payouts which have the most effect are the Full House and Flush, so you need to remember that a 1-coin change in each adds or subtracts 1.1%. However, you might find machines where the Straight Flush and 4-of-a-Kind are also progressive. I usually ignore the increased return on a SF, since it's such a rare hand that massive increases in the progressive are necessary to add significantly to the overall return. But for you number-crunchers out there, each 50 coins adds .1% to the return. If you find a machine with a progressive 4K, each 25 coins adds 1.1%, so a 4K progressive which is reset at 125 coins adds 1.1% at 150 coins.

To recap, you must first see how the pay schedule differs from a standard 9/6 game. Subtract those payouts which have been lowered, then add back the payouts, like progressives, which are above their reset levels. But remember that an 8/5 game with a 9400-coin progressive Royal (100% long term return) is NOT the same as a 9/6 game which also has a 100% return (5000-coin Royal). It's due to what I call the 'shading effect'. In a strict mathematical comparison of total return, the games are the same, but on the 8/5 version, most of that return is concentrated at the upper end of the payout scale. It will take a lot more $$$ to hit the Royal on an 8/5 machine, because the incremental payouts on the Full House and Flush are lower, so your return is 'shaded' or cut back. You will, however, get it all back when you hit the Royal, simply because it's so much larger. But see how much extra you have to put in? You'll need an additional 4400 coins to get the same return (9400-5000 = 4400). Sure, you could walk up to an 8/5 game with a 9400-coin Royal and hit it on your first hand, but we have to deal with long term return here, so a 9/6 Jacks game with a 5000-coin Royal is a better 'play' than an 8/5 game with a 9400-coin game, UNLESS you have a very large bankroll. If $$$ isn't a problem, the 8/5 game is the way to go, because if you hit the Royal relatively early, the actual money you receive is quite a bit larger and if you don't, at least you'll eventually realize the same return. Working on this same example, we can also factor in time. While each game will return the same in the long run, if you have limited time to play (say, on a 4- day trip to Vegas), you need to figure which is more important: walking away with some $$$ left in your bankroll (in which case, play the 9/6 game) or risking all to win big (the 8/5 with the bigger Royal is the way to go).

The other Jacks or Better game you should be familiar with is Bonus Poker where two-pair pay 2 for 1, the Straight pays 4 for 1 and 4K is divided: four Aces pay 80 for 1, four 2, 3, or 4 pay 40 for 1 and four 5-K pay 25 for 1. The difference here is, again, in the payout on the Flush and Full House. If the Flush pays 5 for 1 and the Full House pays 8 for 1, the long term return on this game is 99.2%. If the Royal is progressive, long term return can be figured just like the 9/6 Jacks game. Here, too, a 1000-coin increase in the Royal adds .5%, so on a quarter machine, a Royal of $1375 ($5500 on a dollar machine) is needed to raise the payback to 100%. One of my local casinos has a bank of these in dollar format, but they are 6/5 versions. The long term return is 99.2% minus 2.2% = 97.0%. They do have a progressive Royal, but we need 3% from that to get up to a 100% return. Thus, the Royal has to be at $10,000 to make this game worth playing! (This worst part about this game is that the payout on the Flush and Full House don't appear on the screen; the only way you know it's paying only 30 on a Full House is to hit one. That simply shouldn't be allowed, but evidently it's legal. To add fuel to the flames, the competing casino next door has an 8/5 Bonus Poker game with a progressive Royal AND an 'Aces Bonus' which adds .2%, though it's very long term. Ya gotta shop around, folks.)

Now, don't confuse Bonus Poker with Double Bonus poker, but there are some similarities. In Double Bonus, changes in the Flush and Full House payouts have a similar effect, but remember that the base for a 10/7 Double Bonus game is 100.1%. So, a 9/7 Double Bonus game returns 99.1% and you'll often find it with a progressive Royal. But here's where a significant difference occurs. Because of the higher-paying Straight and Flush in a Double Bonus game, a Royal occurs less often. Instead of one every 40,000 hands, at a Double Bonus game we expect to see one every 48,000 hands. That being the case, a 1000-coin increase adds just .4% to the total return. Therefore, to get a 9/7 Double Bonus with a progressive Royal up to 100%, a 6200-coin Royal is needed.

Does all this seem very confusing? It really isn't, as long as you remember the cost of a change in the Flush and Full House and remember the payouts of the 'full-pay' versions of each game. And they're all worth remembering, because if you know the proper playing strategy for Jacks or Better and Double Bonus, you'll find a lot of profitable opportunities out there and can use them to your advantage.

Next time I'll give you some insights into Deuces Wild games.

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