Naturally, if I knew I was going to hit a Royal, this would be a no-brainer. But who "knows" when one is going to hit a Royal? None of us, of course, but if we take the long view of things, all that really matters is we play when we have an edge and it will all come out in the long run. In that regard, at least, one game that returns 100.17% is just like any other game that returns 100.17%. It was actually more like 100.19% on the Bonus Poker Game, because the SF was at about $400 and the quad Aces were at $425, but I didn't know that at the time because I didn't have any analysis software with me, needless to say. But my "field evaluation" told me the two were close, so it was pretty much a coin flip. Or was it?

First of all, the Bonus game had a lot of its return "stored up" in the Royal and we all know how rare they are. Still, a $9000 Royal is nothing to sneeze at and, if you play enough, you'll eventually get your fair share, so why not me? The second consideration was a little more pragmatic: I had only $500 in cash with me. Sure, I could always hit the ATM, pay the $3.50 fee, etc., but I'd rather avoid it, if possible. That also made the Bonus Poker game attractive because it pays 10 for 5 on two-pair, whereas the Double Bonus game pays 5 for 5 on two-pair. Yes, I know we're talking about Royals and quad Aces and other nifty hands like that, but if you have a relatively limited number of $$$, getting paid "extra" on 2-pair is a definite consideration.

Pay schedule differences like that affect something I've written about many times here and that is "variance". Now, before your eyes start glazing over about all this math stuff, give me a chance to make a quick explanation and we'll move on, I promise. Variance is a number that can be calculated very quickly and accurately by that fabulous software program, "Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker" (BDWP), which is available at www.zamzone.com/. If you don't have it, you should get it. Anyway, it's a number that will tell you, in effect, how big the swings - up and down - your bankroll is going to suffer (or enjoy) as you play.

While there's nothing to stop me from hitting a Royal on my very first hand of play, the reality is that I'll probably hit some good hands, hit a lot more losers and generally watch the credits in the machine go up and down, with a definite emphasis on the "down". Hey, it's all a part of the game and I can live with it, but I had plenty of time to play and I'd rather not lose the entire $500 in 30 minutes (which I have done, believe me.) Playing a game with lower variance may not make me a winner on this day, but it should keep me in the game longer. The variance for a 10/7 Double Bonus game is 28.25 and for a 6/5 Bonus Poker game (ignoring the extra-high Royal for the moment), it's in the 20.75 area. To keep this short, let it suffice to say that the Bonus Poker game is less "volatile" than the Double Bonus game, at least in a short-term playing situation and that bodes well for a guy who's going to play dollar VP with only $500 in his pocket. For a good explanation of how variance affects your risk, see the article "Decisions, Decisions, Decisions" that is archived right here on this page.

Okay, back to the action. On one hand, I have available my favorite game, Double Bonus Poker. I truly do love playing this game and have become very good at it lately. The main problem is that the Royal's "only" $4000, as compared to the Bonus Poker where it's $9000, plus Double Bonus machines can suck up cash like a vacuum cleaner if you're having a bad day. However, I can now play it almost perfectly and that would not be the case with the Bonus Poker game because I should be making some strategy changes due to the increased value of the Royal. (Do you know what I mean here? As a Royal climbs in value, you start making plays you normally wouldn't, if it was at the usual $4000. A good example of that is a hand of A,10 suited where the other 3 cards are basically "rags" that do not affect the play. Normally, you'd hold only the single Ace and toss the 10, but with the Royal at $9000 you should hold both.) Well, I knew I'd be missing some plays like that as I went along and it would reduce my "expectation", but probably not really hurt me, because I'm familiar with many of the variations for a situation like this.

So, let's answer the question posed at the beginning: which is better? Honestly, I think they're both about the same. I say that mainly because we cannot predict just what's going to happen in one playing session and, if it's only the long-term that matters - a sentiment with which I completely agree - the two games really are the same. But I had $500, about 5 hours to play and I wanted to win. (I always want to win.) I don't always win, but I always want to win, so I sat down at the Bonus Poker game with the $9000 Royal about an hour before the lady on the other side of the bank of machines hit it for $9050 or thereabouts. That's when I went to play Double Bonus and never saw 3 Aces, let alone 4.

But I'll see you here next time.