Let's face it, the only reason to play Video Poker is to win $$$. Sure, it can be fun and maybe even exciting at times, but for the most part, the fun comes when you walk away from a session of play with a profit in your pocket. But the reality is that you'll have more losing sessions than winning sessions, but that's also true with slot machines and, at least with Video Poker, you have the opportunity to realize a long-term profit for your efforts. You just need to understand that a profit in VP doesn't happen on a regular and consistent basis. You may very well have 6 or 7 losing sessions in a row, then see one or two sessions where the $$$ pour out of the machine like it's broken. Successful Video Poker play is something like making periodic contributions to a mutual fund; you pay and pay and pay and then one day (hopefully) you cash in for a profit. VP is a little better than that, because you will get periodic 'dividends' in the form of the occasional winning session, you'll probably make some small amount of $$$ in the form of slot club cash rebates and, while no one can guarantee that a mutual fund will gain in value, you can pretty much guarantee that you'll realize a profit from your Video Poker play, if:

This is like a three-legged stool; lose one leg and the whole thing tips over. The biggest problem most players have in a casino is their lack of discipline. I'll talk more about the psychology of gambling in a future article, but to be successful at Video Poker, you have to almost become a machine yourself. Unemotional, accurate, unswerving, patient and precise are words which come to mind when I think about the successful VP players that I know. Throw in non-drinking, intelligent, and hard-working for good measure, though this seems to be true more when they're sitting at a machine than when they're just hanging out.

That's all philosophy, though and we're here for $$$. Video Poker play requires that we look at money management in three different ways. The first is long-term and the main controlling factor here is the pay schedule of the machines you choose to play. For example, if you always play Jacks or Better games in an 8/5 format, that game has a long-term return of 97.3%, so in the long-term, you'll lose $$$. On the other hand, if you only play at games with a 100+% long term return, you'll eventually show a profit. The second way we must look at money management in Video Poker is medium-term. Keeping with our example of an 8/5 Jacks game, we can certainly expect to have winning sessions occasionally and, if we keep our playing sessions short by establishing fairly low goals, we might have a lot of winning sessions. Let me explain that.

If you go to a casino with $100 to risk and your goal is to get ahead by $200 and then quit, well, that's not going to happen very often. But, if you're willing to quit when you're $25 ahead, you may be successful at that much more often. In fact, with $100 to risk, there's a 50-50 chance that you'll lose the entire amount, but only a 1 in 40 chance that you'll ever be ahead by $200 at some time in the session if that session lasts for 1200 hands of play, which is about 2 hours. On the other hand, if you start with the same $100 and quit when you're up $25, there's only a 40% chance that you'll lose it all and a 50-50 chance that you'll be ahead by $25 at some point in the session. The only problem here is that you're basically fooling yourself by creating these winning sessions. While I won't argue that we all get a mental "lift" from a winning session, it's only what happens in the long-term that ultimately matters and the only way to win in the long-term is to play games that offer a 100+% return and play them properly

Viewing money management for Video Poker from the short-term perspective is much less important, but it has its impact. What I'm referring to here is the difference between games that give a good return on the 'short-term' hands like two pair, flushes, etc, and those that don't. A game that pays only even money (5 for 5) on a hand like two-pair is going to require more risk capital than a game that pays 10 for 5 on the same hand. That's because a hand like two-pair occurs rather frequently and the 'profit' you make from those help keep you in the game, at least for the very short term. These hands are only a consideration if you have a very limited amount of risk capital and are, in effect, 'taking a shot.' Because that's what it really is with just a few bucks; you're hoping to get lucky so that you can play for a while, because at some point in the future, a 'cold' streak is going to suck up your $$$, unless you're very, very lucky. Let me show you an example here.

Let's say you have $50 and you'll play until that's doubled, or it's all gone. At an 8/5 Jacks game, there's a 50-50 chance you'll lose it all before you play 500 hands and only a 1 in 30 chance that you'll be ahead by $100 at some point in that session. At a Double Bonus game that pays even money on two-pair, there's a 50-50 chance you'll bust out by hand #300, but there's a 1 in 7 chance that you'll be up by $100 at some point in the session. This is, of course, due to the fact that in Double Bonus, the 4K hands pay at least $62.50, so if you're lucky, you do well very quickly. But the cost of that is obvious, so if you only have a few $$$, stick to a game with a good short-term pay schedule.

Now you may be wondering where all these numbers and percentages are coming from. They are all from an outstanding web site called "Jeff Lotspiech' s Video Poker Page" http://members.aol.com/lotsie/poker.html and you should check it out. On there, Jeff has graciously installed a "Risk of Ruin Calculator" (you'll find it at the bottom of the page) which is a nifty Java-based program where you can input your risk capital, add a session profit goal and allow the calculator to run for as many hands as you'd like. The program then gives you the probability of success or failure at various games: 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Jacks, Double Bonus, Bonus, Deuces Wild, etc. This is really worth a visit and it will give you more of an insight into the capital required to be successful at Video Poker than anything I can write here. Jeff's fabulous program also does a great job of showing you the importance of proper game selection. Remember our 8/5 Jacks example, with just $50 in starting capital? At a full-pay Deuces Wild game (100.7% payback), the 50-50 point of losing the $50 is at the same 500 hands played but there's a 1 in 10 chance of being ahead by $100 in the session, instead of the 1 in 30 of the Jacks game.

What I'm trying to do with all this mathematics mumbo-jumbo is point out to you that you need to set goals for your VP play; you need to know what you want to accomplish.

"Make money", I hear you say. Well, I understand that, so maybe I need to ask you a question:

"Is making money your only goal?"

There are a lot of reasons for playing VP and a lot of ways to make $$$ at it. The one which is most important to you will have a considerable effect on what games you play and how you go about it. Let's look at a few reasons for playing Video Poker (besides making $$$, of course).

1. "I just want to pass the time and not lose too much, but I have plenty of $$$ and plenty of time."

It sounds like you're retired with a nice pension or some other source of income and you're slightly bored. Video poker is definitely a good choice for you, so good that I think the AARP ought to have a Video Poker department. Anyway, you need to play a game with a 100+% long term payback and you should exploit all the casino promotions like triple-point day, etc. If you live near some casinos, you can make this little past time a pretty good income-producer. Playing All American Poker, you'll need a total bankroll of about $4000 if you have a .25% cash back slot club available and about $5000 if there is no cash back. There's about a 1 in 8 chance that you'll lose that much if you play 'forever'. But the return here can be substantial. If you play 20 hours a week at a rate of 500 hands/hour, your total 'action' will be $12,500 a week and, with a total return of just under 1%, that's a return of about $100 a week on a $4000 investment. These figures apply to All American Poker that offers a 100.7% long-term return, so should you choose to play Pick 'Em Poker that pays 99.95% long term, a slot club is necessary to get you to the 100% return level and the bankroll requirement is much bigger, $12,000 or so. The return on investment is much, much less, but you're not in this for the money, remember?

2. "I have $500 to risk on my annual trip to Vegas and I want to win as much as possible, BUT the $500 has to last for 5 days' play."

First, you need to learn how to recognize and learn how to play a full-pay Deuces Wild game. Now most 'experts' would say to divide your $$$ into 5 parts and only use $100 per day as your loss limit. But I know you better than they do and you're not going to do it. So my advice is to divide your time, rather than your money. Try to limit your play to 4 hours the first day. At the worst, you're going to lose about $400 ( a 1 in 30 chance) but most likely you'll be somewhere between a win of $50 and a loss of $150. But let me ask you a question here: Will you stop at a $500 profit, because there's a 1 in 12 chance that you'll get there the first day. You probably won't stop, especially if you do it the first day, but keep a profit goal in mind and if you hit it, consider stopping play and go blow the $$$ on something else. Five hundred bucks can buy some pretty good dinners in Las Vegas!! Okay, let's move on to Day 2. Here you want to play another 4 hours, okay? When that session is over, there's a 1 in 10 chance that be be either broke or nearly so. But, there's a 1 in 6 chance that you'll have hit the $500 profit level, too. Most likely you'll be up or down by $200 or so. But you're getting in some good play and I hope you've introduced yourself to a slot host at the casino where you're playing. At 600 hands per hour at $1.25/hand, and 4 hours a day, you're putting through $3000 a day and that's worth breakfast or lunch or something. But you probably won't get it unless you ask, so ask

I hope you get the idea here. It's pretty difficult to lose $500 in 8 hours' play at a good game, although it can happen and it would really suck if that happened during your first two days. But let's just say, for example's sake, that you're able to play 25 hours of VP during your stay; in other words, you don't go Tap City at any point, so how will the 'final' figures look? First, the bad news: There's a 37% chance of losing $500 at a quarter Deuces Wild game in 25 hours' play. The good news? There's a 39% chance that you will have hit the $500 profit. So if you can hang in there (more correctly: if the cards let you hang in there), you have the same chance of hitting your goal as tapping out.

Alternatively, what if you did just risk $100 per day with an eye towards stopping if that's lost and also stopping if you have a $100 profit? If you play 4-5 hours per day, there's a 65% chance that you'll lose the hundred bucks and just a 30% chance of making a $100 profit. See the difference here? By risking only $100 a day, you're just another under-financed player and it's not hard to imagine losing all five days. But look how the play turns around when you don't impose such limits. Sure, you'll be upset with the ol' GameMaster if you lose it all the first day, but I think you need to give yourself the best chance and that is to go for it.

3. "I've got $30 a week to risk and I want the biggest bang for my buck. 'Bang' means a lot of $$$ and I don't care if my risk capital lasts only an hour or so."

Since we're discussing Video Poker here, I'll exclude such possibilities as craps or roulette for your playing options. I have a friend who plays Video Poker on a limited budget and she's the ballsiest double-up player you'll ever see. Do you understand the double-up option on Video Poker? It's basically a 'double or nothing' play that you can make once you've hit a winning hand. What it all boils down to is that you get a winner, let's say a straight, for example and then you can attempt to double that if you wish (assuming, of course, that the machine offers the double-up option because not all do.) What my friend does is to start at a quarter VP game; Jacks or Better, or one like that where two-pair pay 10 for 5 (to keep the swings in her bankroll moderate) and she plays one or two coins at a time. She'll double almost any hand and, if she feels good about it, will double again and maybe even a third time. As (and if) her credits build up, she plays 3, then 4, then 5 coins per hand and uses that to control her play. If she starts losing, she cuts back on the number of coins in, but not on the doubling. I've seen her turn 20 bucks into 200 by using this method of play!

You may not know that the casino has no edge over the player in the double-up bet; it's a straight 50-50 play, so in the long run you'll lose as much as you win. But, you can get ahead of the curve, so to speak and win a bunch of $$$ at a good session and it'll take quite some time for the casino to get back those winnings if you're only risking $30 per visit. In my articles on the double-up option, I talk about probabilities, percentage of return, 'inefficient pay schedules' and stuff like that, but I think a more "WAG" approach is called for here. WAG stands for "Wild-Assed Gambling" and a bold attitude can make you a bunch of $$$ in a short time. But, if you stick to your guns, you can only lose $30 a trip. This isn't very scientific, but it sure is fun. Just ask my friend.

In the next installment of this series, I'll show you how you can invest in Video Poker and maybe turn your play into a nice little business.

See you here then.