We all agree that a 9/6 Jacks with a $1000 Royal returns 99.5% to those who use the proper playing strategy. Since a Royal will occur, on average about once every 40,000 hands, it has a probability of .0000250. With the Royal at 800 for 1 (4000 coins on a quarter machine), the return from a Royal is 800 X .0000250 = .02 or 2%. This means that 2% of the 99.5% return is provided by the Royal. (Helps explain why you lose most of the time.) With a Royal at $1400, we receive 1120 coins for each coin played. That's an increase of 320 coins, so our payback increases by 320 X .0000250 = .008 or .8%. Thus, this machine will return at least 100.3% for expert play until someone hits the Royal. I say 'at least', because the progressive will continue to grow as you play, so the return will increase.

Figuring the return for the 3-way progressive is similar. The probability of a 4K is .002364 and we have an increase of .6 of a coin per coin played ($32 X 4 divided by 5 = 25.6) The gain here is .6 X .002364 = .0014 or .14% -- almost nothing. For the straight flush, the probability is .0001053 and we have an increase of 38 coins per coin paid. Therefore, our increase is 38 X .0001053 = .004 which is .4%. The Royal is 200 coins above the base, so we're gaining 200 X .0000250 = .005 or .5% from that. Add all those increases to the base of 99.5 % (99.5 + .5 + .4 + ..14 = 100.54%. So, this machine is currently a better 'deal' than the Royal progressive. But, if someone hits the straight flush (I watched a guy get two of them within a half-hour the other night at Harrah's), we lose the additional .4% for a while and the Royal progressive-only machine becomes more attractive. Of course, nobody is going to get up and drive to another casino for such a small difference, but my point here is that you've got to keep your eyes open and, if everything else is equal, go for the highest payback.