Because most of our readers are "recreational" players and not full-time professionals, I thought it would be interesting to run a series of simulations on various Video Poker games to give you an idea of what may happen in a relatively small amount of play.
For each game covered, I ran 50 simulations of 7200 hands each with the idea that this might represent a year's worth of play for someone who plays eight to fourteen hours each week. If you play at a rate of 600 hands per hour, then this works out to be twelve hours of time on the machine, so one simulation may represent the total play on a weekend visit to Las Vegas, Biloxi, Atlantic City, etc.
Obviously, 50 simulations represent 360,000 hands of play and, if you are betting five quarters at a time, it amounts to $450,000 of total bets. If you're a dollar player, this would be an astonishing $1,800,000 of "action" which should qualify you for a lot of good comps at all but the stingiest of casinos.
As you'll see, a lot can happen to your bankroll in 7200 hands of play. Wild swings can and do occur but knowing that helps, I think, especially if you have any doubts about the "randomness" of a machine, be it in a brick-and-mortar casino, or in a cyber-casino.
The Methodology
All of these simulations were run in the Autoplay mode of WinPoker, version 6.0. The program does not keep track of the highs and lows reached during a simulation, so I had to "eyeball" that as it was running. But, for our purposes here, I believe the accuracy achieved is adequate. All I basically did was to run one 7200-hand simulation after another, record the highs, lows and final result and then compile them into the table you'll see below. I then extracted certain averages, streaks, etc. which I though might be helpful.
Several points to remember about these sims: First, WinPoker plays each hand 'perfectly' and we humans probably don't, so the results here are undoubtedly better than the average player will receive. Secondly, a total simulation of 360,000 hands at any Video Poker game is nowhere near "the long run". It's actually about 10% of "the long run" so it will be surprising to find that the total return for a simulation matches that of the paytable for the game covered.
But, all-in-all, I think these sims have considerable practical use because they represent what may happen to any of us in a given number of hands at our favorite Video Poker game. Just remember: your mileage may vary.
The Games
This series will eventually cover the majority of all Video Poker games out there, such as Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, Joker Poker, etc. which means this may go on for a long time. We'll cover "full-pay" versions, games with progressives and weird variations, if possible, so if there's a game which interests you, please e-mail me at aceten1@mindspring.com and I'll try to do a sim on it.
Part 7: 15/8 Loose Deuces
The pay schedule for this game offers a long-term return of 100.15% if played perfectly. Here's what it looks like:
| Royal Flush | 4000 |
| Four Deuces | 2500 |
| Wild Royal | 125 |
| 5 of a Kind | 75 |
| Straight Flush | 40 |
| 4 of a Kind | 20 |
| Full House | 15 |
| Flush | 10 |
| Straight | 10 |
| 3 of a Kind | 5 |
| Simulation Recap |
| Number of hands played: | 360,000 |
| Total Win: | 65,935 credits ($16,483.75 in a $.25 game) |
| Expected Win: | 2700 credits ($675.00 in a $.25 game) |
| Slot Club Cash Back ($.25 game): | $1125 (0.25%) |
| Note: | The slot club cash back has not been added to the "win" amount. |
| Winning sessions: | 29 Average Win: +3765 credits |
| Losing sessions: | 21 Average loss: -2195 credits |
| Biggest win: | +15,730credits (143.69% return) |
| Smallest win: | +40 credits |
| Biggest loss: | -54,855 credits (89.85% return) |
| Smallest loss: | -120 credits |
| Royal Flushes received: | 9 (Sessions marked with an "R") |
| Longest losing streak after a new high: | -2845 credits (sessions 22-24) |
Comments: Wow, what a session! This game has a long-term return of 100.15% if played properly, but the simulation had a return of 114.65%, which is about a 2.6 Standard Deviation event. It just shows you how a player can get on a winning streak that lasts for a fairly long time. Because over 10% of the return of the game comes from the 4 deuces, if they show up more than expected (expectation is once every 4664 hands), you can make some serious $$$. Of course, if they don't show, the game is like a vacuum cleaner for your coins. I also got lucky with Royal Flushes, because there were 9 of them and, since we can expect to get one every 45,000 hands or so, that is 1 more than expectation. It all added up nicely. But look at the swings in your bankroll for the individual 7200-hand sessions below. Many times there was a 5000+ coin difference between the high and low, which is bearable in a quarter game, but almost breathtaking in a dollar game. That is a stark illustration of the variance of this game, which is 70.69 (as opposed to 19.51 for a 9/6 Jacks or Better game), so wide swings in the bankroll are to be expected. That high variance is what contributed to the huge win and it's great when things are going your way, but a similar downswing is almost as equally likely to occur. What a fun game for the adequately financed!
The Simulation Sessions (all figures are in credits or coins) |
|---|
| Session | High Point | Low Point | End Result | % Return | Net Profit/Loss |
| 1. | +485 | -5100 | -4465 | 87.60% | -4465 |
| 2. | +1300 | -1875 | +155 | 100.43% | -4310 |
| 3. | +250 | -3010 | +1130 | 103.14% | -3180 |
| 4. | +165 | -4115 | -1990 | 94.47% | -5170 |
| 5. (R) | +7475 | -435 | +6795 | 118.88% | +1625 |
| 6. | +170 | -5220 | -3730 | 89.64% | -2105 |
| 7. | +1190 | -2610 | -1725 | 95.29% | -3830 |
| 8. | +6965 | -885 | +6440 | 117.89% | +2610 |
| 9. | +2320 | -410 | +470 | 101.31% | +3080 |
| 10. | +30 | -2645 | -5485 | 84.76% | -2405 |
| 11. (R) | +4675 | -830 | +3735 | 110.38% | +1330 |
| 12. | +30 | -2645 | -325 | 99.10% | +1005 |
| 13. | 0 | -3320 | -1020 | 97.17% | -15 |
| 14. | +1040 | -1710 | +40 | 100.11% | +25 |
| 15. | +4590 | -1260 | +4165 | 111.57% | +4190 |
| 16. | +925 | -2580 | +750 | 102.08% | +4940 |
| 17. | +3875 | -2490 | +3790 | 110.33% | +8790 |
| 18. | +2100 | -460 | +1895 | 105.26% | +10625 |
| 19. | +1445 | -1365 | -1320 | 96.33% | +9305 |
| 20. (R) | +7980 | -440 | +7545 | 120.96% | +16850 |
| 21. (R) | +9650 | -900 | +7385 | 120.51% | +24235 |
| 22. | +110 | -2345 | -1145 | 96.82% | +23090 |
| 23. | 0 | -2805 | -1275 | 96.46% | +21815 |
| 24. | +410 | -2130 | -425 | 98.82% | +21390 |
| 25. (R) | +7935 | -530 | +6965 | 119.35% | +28355 |
| 26. | +5235 | -70 | +4145 | 111.51% | +32500 |
| 27. | +1585 | -1115 | -1000 | 97.22% | +31500 |
| 28. | +10 | -3315 | -3315 | 90.79% | +28185 |
| 29. (2R) | +16320 | -1505 | +15730 | 143.69% | +43915 |
| 30. | +1420 | -2630 | +120 | 100.33% | +44035 |
| 31. | +130 | -4105 | -4060 | 88.72% | +39975 |
| 32. | +255 | -2640 | -120 | 99.67% | +39855 |
| 33. | +645 | -2470 | +220 | 100.61% | +40075 |
| 34. | +15 | -4380 | -4365 | 87.88% | +35710 |
| 35. | +2240 | -2525 | +1215 | 103.38% | +36925 |
| 36. (R) | +10980 | -1350 | +10395 | 128.88% | +47320 |
| 37. | +4865 | -1140 | +4740 | 113.17% | +52060 |
| 38. | +5975 | -985 | +5040 | 114.00% | +57100 |
| 39. | +5685 | -430 | +3575 | 109.93% | +60670 |
| 40. | +25 | -3790 | -1665 | 95.83% | +59010 |
| 41. | +1575 | -2225 | -2135 | 94.08% | +56875 |
| 42. | +7130 | -610 | +4070 | 111.31% | +60945 |
| 43. | +3285 | -1665 | +2785 | 107.74% | +63730 |
| 44. | +3160 | -1355 | +1200 | 103.33% | +64930 |
| 45. | +35 | -3875 | -2605 | 92.76% | +62325 |
| 46.(R) | +5555 | -675 | +5180 | 114.39% | +67505 |
| 47. | 0 | -3825 | -3540 | 90.17% | +63965 |
| 48. | +3065 | -3085 | +2200 | 106.11% | +66165 |
| 49. | +2115 | -1285 | +195 | 100.54% | +66360 |
| 50. | +615 | -1340 | -425 | 98.82% | +65935 |
©copyright, 2002
The GameMaster Online, Inc.