Because most of our readers are "recreational" players and not full-time professionals, I thought it would be interesting to run a series of simulations on various Video Poker games to give you an idea of what may happen in a relatively small amount of play.
For each game covered, I ran 50 simulations of 7200 hands each with the idea that this might represent a year's worth of play for someone who plays eight to fourteen hours each week. If you play at a rate of 600 hands per hour, then this works out to be twelve hours of time on the machine, so one simulation may represent the total play on a weekend visit to Las Vegas, Biloxi, Atlantic City, etc.
Obviously, 50 simulations represent 360,000 hands of play and, if you are betting five quarters at a time, it amounts to $450,000 of total bets. If you're a dollar player, this would be an astonishing $1,800,000 of "action" which should qualify you for a lot of good comps at all but the stingiest of casinos.
As you'll see, a lot can happen to your bankroll in 7200 hands of play. Wild swings can and do occur but knowing that helps, I think, especially if you have any doubts about the "randomness" of a machine, be it in a brick-and-mortar casino, or in a cyber-casino.
The Methodology
All of these simulations were run in the Autoplay mode of WinPoker, version 6.0. The program does not keep track of the highs and lows reached during a simulation, so I had to "eyeball" that as it was running. But, for our purposes here, I believe the accuracy achieved is adequate. All I basically did was to run one 7200-hand simulation after another, record the highs, lows and final result and then compile them into the table you'll see below. I then extracted certain averages, streaks, etc. which I though might be helpful.
Several points to remember about these sims: First, WinPoker plays each hand 'perfectly' and we humans probably don't, so the results here are undoubtedly better than the average player will receive. Secondly, a total simulation of 360,000 hands at any Video Poker game is nowhere near "the long run". It's actually about 10% of "the long run" so it will be surprising to find that the total return for a simulation matches that of the paytable for the game covered.
But, all-in-all, I think these sims have considerable practical use because they represent what may happen to any of us in a given number of hands at our favorite Video Poker game. Just remember: your mileage may vary.
The Games
This series will eventually cover the majority of all Video Poker games out there, such as Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, Joker Poker, etc. which means this may go on for a long time. We'll cover "full-pay" versions, games with progressives and weird variations, if possible, so if there's a game which interests you, please e-mail me at aceten1@mindspring.com and I'll try to do a sim on it.
Part 5: "Illinois" Deuces Wild
The pay schedule for this game offers a long-term return of only 98.91% if played perfectly. Here's what it looks like:
| Royal Flush | 4000 |
| Four Deuces | 1000 |
| Wild Royal | 125 |
| 5 of a Kind | 75 |
| Straight Flush | 45 |
| 4 of a Kind | 20 |
| Full House | 20 |
| Flush | 15 |
| Straight | 10 |
| 3 of a Kind | 5 |
| Simulation Recap |
| Number of hands played: | 360,000 |
| Total Loss: | 30,655 credits ($7663.75 in a $.25 game) |
| Expected Loss: | 19,620 credits ($4905.00 in a $.25 game) |
| Slot Club Cash Back ($.25 game): | $1125 (0.25%)
$1485 (0.33%)
$1800 (0.40%)
$2250 (0.50%) |
| Note: | The slot club cash back has not been added to the "win" amount. |
| Winning sessions: | 17 Average Win: +1525 credits |
| Losing sessions: | 33 Average loss: -1730 credits |
| Biggest win: | +4850 credits (113.47% return) |
| Smallest win: | +120 credits |
| Biggest loss: | -3665 credits (89.85% return) |
| Smallest loss: | -45 credits |
| Royal Flushes received: | 3 (Sessions marked with an "R") |
| Longest losing streak after a new high: | -8030 credits (sessions 27-33) |
Comments: Now you know what pays the electric bill at most of the Midwest riverboat casinos. The rate of loss for this simulation was expected to be 1.09% of all the $$$ bet, but we ended with a 1.70% loss, primarily because we got only 3 Royals instead of the 8 we can expect for this number of hands. I know that a lot of you like to play Deuces games, but you need to find versions better than this. You'd really be much better off by not playing these and saving your $$$ for several trips to Nevada where you can play the full-pay version.
The Simulation Sessions (all figures are in credits or coins) |
| Session | High Point | Low Point | End Result | % Return | Net Profit/Loss |
| 1. | 0 | -1895 | -1750 | 95.14 | -1750 |
| 2. | +1375 | -2610 | +1360 | 103.78 | -390 |
| 3. | +110 | -1805 | -1770 | 95.08 | -2160 |
| 4. | 0 | -1995 | -1990 | 94.47 | -4150 |
| 5. | +20 | -2205 | -930 | 97.42 | -5080 |
| 6. | +50 | -2545 | -2525 | 92.99 | -7605 |
| 7. | (R) +5775 | 0 | +4850 | 113.47 | -2755 |
| 8. | +210 | -2430 | -2415 | 93.29 | -5170 |
| 9. | +350 | -3320 | +450 | 101.25 | -4720 |
| 10. | +530 | -650 | -525 | 98.54 | -5245 |
| 11. | +1995 | -510 | +1945 | 105.40 | -3300 |
| 12. | +555 | -1440 | +120 | 100.33 | -3180 |
| 13. | +305 | -790 | -765 | 97.88 | -3945 |
| 14. | +3615 | -10 | +3510 | 109.75 | -435 |
| 15. | (R) +3880 | -1040 | +3870 | 110.75 | +3435 |
| 16. | 0 | -2425 | -2350 | 93.47 | +1085 |
| 17. | +3165 | -510 | +1595 | 104.43 | +2680 |
| 18. | +10 | -2155 | -2035 | 94.35 | +645 |
| 19. | 0 | -2370 | -2155 | 94.01 | -1510 |
| 20. | +170 | -2080 | -1030 | 97.14 | -2540 |
| 21. | +2885 | -430 | +915 | 102.54 | -1625 |
| 22. | +80 | -2290 | -1590 | 95.58 | -3215 |
| 23. | +385 | -1130 | -1100 | 96.94 | -4315 |
| 24. | +1460 | -1315 | +1425 | 103.96 | -2890 |
| 25. | +45 | -2680 | -2675 | 92.51 | -5565 |
| 26. | +1325 | -1625 | -1565 | 95.65 | -7130 |
| 27. | +90 | -2040 | -1875 | 94.79 | -9005 |
| 28. | +860 | -585 | -555 | 98.46 | -9560 |
| 29. | +740 | -900 | +615 | 101.71 | -8390 |
| 30. | +410 | -640 | -145 | 99.60 | -8535 |
| 31. | +1145 | -1490 | -1435 | 96.01 | -9970 |
| 32. | +955 | -310 | +585 | 101.63 | -9385 |
| 33. | +115 | -1770 | -1735 | 95.18 | -11120 |
| 34. | +220 | -2905 | -2635 | 92.68 | -13755 |
| 35. | 0 | -3495 | -3220 | 91.06 | -16975 |
| 36. | +400 | -2440 | -2235 | 93.79 | -19210 |
| 37. | +30 | -1750 | -1750 | 95.14 | -20960 |
| 38. | (R) +2055 | -2400 | +1155 | 103.21 | -19805 |
| 39. | +940 | -1810 | +890 | 102.47 | -18915 |
| 40. | +100 | -2260 | -2150 | 94.03 | -21065 |
| 41. | +1850 | -425 | +840 | 102.33 | -20225 |
| 42. | 0 | -1775 | -1165 | 96.76 | -21390 |
| 43. | +75 | -3900 | -3655 | 89.85 | -25045 |
| 44. | 0 | -2145 | -1945 | 94.60 | -26990 |
| 45. | +30 | -2010 | -1255 | 96.51 | -28245 |
| 46. | +50 | -1780 | -1725 | 95.21 | -29970 |
| 47. | +715 | -15 | +305 | 100.85 | -29665 |
| 48. | +80 | -2705 | -2455 | 93.18 | -32120 |
| 49. | +1985 | -315 | +1510 | 104.18 | -30610 |
| 50. | +1425 | -1990 | -45 | 99.88 | -30655 |
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The GameMaster Online, Inc.