Because most of our readers are "recreational" players and not full-time professionals, I thought it would be interesting to run a series of simulations on various Video Poker games to give you an idea of what may happen in a relatively small amount of play.
For each game covered, I ran 50 simulations of 7200 hands each with the idea that this might represent a year's worth of play for someone who plays eight to fourteen hours each week. If you play at a rate of 600 hands per hour, then this works out to be twelve hours of time on the machine, so one simulation may represent the total play on a weekend visit to Las Vegas, Biloxi, Atlantic City, etc.
Obviously, 50 simulations represent 360,000 hands of play and, if you are betting five quarters at a time, it amounts to $450,000 of total bets. If you're a dollar player, this would be an astonishing $1,800,000 of "action" which should qualify you for a lot of good comps at all but the stingiest of casinos.
As you'll see, a lot can happen to your bankroll in 7200 hands of play. Wild swings can and do occur but knowing that helps, I think, especially if you have any doubts about the "randomness" of a machine, be it in a brick-and-mortar casino, or in a cyber-casino.
The Methodology
All of these simulations were run in the Autoplay mode of WinPoker, version 6.0. The program does not keep track of the highs and lows reached during a simulation, so I had to "eyeball" that as it was running. But, for our purposes here, I believe the accuracy achieved is adequate. All I basically did was to run one 7200-hand simulation after another, record the highs, lows and final result and then compile them into the table you'll see below. I then extracted certain averages, streaks, etc. which I though might be helpful.
Several points to remember about these sims: First, WinPoker plays each hand 'perfectly' and we humans probably don't, so the results here are undoubtedly better than the average player will receive. Secondly, a total simulation of 360,000 hands at any Video Poker game is nowhere near "the long run". It's actually about 10% of "the long run" so it will be surprising to find that the total return for a simulation matches that of the paytable for the game covered.
But, all-in-all, I think these sims have considerable practical use because they represent what may happen to any of us in a given number of hands at our favorite Video Poker game. Just remember: your mileage may vary.
The Games
This series will eventually cover the majority of all Video Poker games out there, such as Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, Joker Poker, etc. which means this may go on for a long time. We'll cover "full-pay" versions, games with progressives and weird variations, if possible, so if there's a game which interests you, please e-mail me at aceten1@mindspring.com and I'll try to do a sim on it.
Part 4: Full-Pay Deuces Wild
This game returns 100.72% for perfect play, so it's undoubtedly the #1 choice for pros and semi-pros who play mainly in Nevada. I have heard that one casino on the Gulf Coast offers this game, and a handful of casinos on the Internet do as well, but that's about it. While almost every other jurisdiction offers Deuces Wild machines, few, if any, offer a return of over 100% and most are all but unplayable due to their low returns. The full-pay version is the "King" of Video Poker, not only because of its overall payout percentage, but also, as you'll see, because the bankroll swings it generates are relatively small which leads to a fairly consistent income for someone who plays every day. Hitting "the ducks" (four deuces) is worth 1000 coins and that makes the game a lot of fun. I sure wish I had some in my town.
| Simulation Recap |
| Number of hands played: | 360,000 |
| Total Win: | 26,045 credits ($6511.25 in a $.25 game)) |
| Expected Win: | 12,960 credits ($3240.00 in a $.25 game) |
| Slot Club Cash Back ($.25 game): | $1125 (0.25%)
$1485 (0.33%)
$1800 (0.40%)
$2250 (0.50%) |
| Note: | The slot club cash back has not been added to the "win" amount. |
| Winning sessions: | 23 Average Win: +2585 credits |
| Losing sessions: | 27 Average loss: -1240 credits |
| Biggest win: | +5285 credits (114.68% return) |
| Smallest win: | +10 credits |
| Biggest loss: | -3210 credits (91.08% return) |
| Smallest loss: | -20 credits |
| Royal Flushes received: | 9 (Sessions marked with an "R") |
| Longest losing streak after a new high: | -8030 credits (sessions 27-33) |
Comments: This simulation finished with a profit that is about twice of what was expected, but that's no surprise when dealing with such a relatively small sample. The cumulative return was 101.45% and if you add some sort of cash rebate to it, this is a nice sum of $$$ for the time invested. The biggest win for a 7200-hand session is equal to $1321.25 on a quarter game, which is a good piece of change for a weekend's worth of play. The biggest loss amounted to $802.50 and it implies that $1000 should suffice for the average session. For a long-term attack on these machines, a bankroll of $4414 combined with a 0.20% cash rebate will give you a 5% probability of losing it all. (Thanks to TomSki for that calculation).
The Simulation Sessions (all figures are in credits or coins) |
| Session | High Point | Low Point | End Result | % Return | Net Profit/Loss |
| 1. | +780 | -725 | -615 | 98.29 | -615 |
| 2. | +1010 | -115 | +300 | 100.83 | -315 |
| 3. | 0 | -2100 | -995 | 97.24 | -1310 |
| 4. | +875 | -965 | -445 | 98.74 | -1755 |
| 5. | +850 | -500 | +65 | 100.18 | -1690 |
| 6. | +1145 | -305 | -300 | 99.17 | -1990 |
| 7. | (R) +4415 | -685 | -300 | 111.39 | +2110 |
| 8. | +775 | -3270 | -3210 | 91.08 | -1100 |
| 9. | +25 | -995 | -755 | 97.90 | -1855 |
| 10. | (R) +6500 | -170 | +5285 | 114.68 | +3430 |
| 11. | +3235 | -80 | +2415 | 106.71 | +5845 |
| 12. | (R) +4010 | -1250 | +3780 | 110.50 | +9625 |
| 13. | +1960 | -705 | +1720 | 104.78 | +11,345 |
| 14. | (R) +6065 | -1970 | +5155 | 114.32 | +16,500 |
| 15. | 0 | -3115 | -2980 | 91.72 | +13,520 |
| 16. | +885 | -1110 | +585 | 101.63 | +14,105 |
| 17. | +2400 | -900 | +1425 | 103.96 | +15,530 |
| 18. | +775 | -1980 | -1885 | 94.76 | +13,645 |
| 19. | +1935 | -560 | +1890 | 105.25 | +15,535 |
| 20. | +370 | -3000 | -740 | 97.94 | +14,795 |
| 21. | +1765 | -550 | +1020 | 102.83 | +15,815 |
| 22. | 0 | -2905 | -2890 | 91.97 | +12,925 |
| 23. | +2180 | -515 | +2155 | 105.99 | +15,080 |
| 24. | +3520 | -1685 | +10 | 100.03 | +15,090 |
| 25. | +20 | -3075 | -3060 | 91.50 | +12,030 |
| 26. | (R) +4860 | -685 | +3870 | 110.75 | +15,900 |
| 27. | +805 | -1140 | -505 | 98.60 | +15,395 |
| 28. | +115 | -2740 | -2330 | 93.53 | +13,065 |
| 29. | +2525 | -370 | -370 | 98.97 | +12,695 |
| 30. | 0 | -2280 | -1160 | 96.78 | +11,535 |
| 31. | +215 | -2125 | -1175 | 96.74 | +10,360 |
| 32. | +80 | -1455 | -350 | 99.03 | +10,010 |
| 33. | +85 | -2640 | -2140 | 94.06 | +7870 |
| 34. | (R) +4265 | -335 | +4115 | 111.43 | +11,985 |
| 35. | +965 | -630 | -545 | 98.49 | +11,440 |
| 36. | +295 | -1000 | -635 | 98.24 | +10,805 |
| 37. | +1010 | -1020 | -20 | 99.94 | +10,785 |
| 38. | +900 | -435 | -180 | 99.50 | +10,605 |
| 39. | +70 | -2655 | -2645 | 92.65 | +7960 |
| 40. | +640 | -930 | +540 | 101.50 | +8500 |
| 41. | +5 | -1115 | -995 | 97.24 | +7505 |
| 42. | (R) +4905 | -325 | +4760 | 113.20 | +12,265 |
| 43. | +3980 | 0 | +3830 | 110.64 | +16,095 |
| 44. | +2595 | -10 | +2185 | 106.07 | +18,280 |
| 45. | +1220 | -1090 | +580 | 101.64 | +18,860 |
| 46. | +245 | -835 | -375 | 98.96 | +18,485 |
| 47. | +50 | -1690 | -1620 | 95.50 | +16,865 |
| 48. | (R) +6430 | -80 | +5015 | 113.93 | +21,880 |
| 49. | (R) +6115 | -340 | +4715 | 113.10 | +26,595 |
| 50. | +140 | -685 | -550 | 98.50 | +26,045 |
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