Because most of our readers are "recreational" players and not full-time professionals, I thought it would be interesting to run a series of simulations on various Video Poker games to give you an idea of what may happen in a relatively small amount of play.
For each game covered, I ran 50 simulations of 7200 hands each with the idea that this might represent a year's worth of play for someone who plays eight to fourteen hours each week. If you play at a rate of 600 hands per hour, then this works out to be twelve hours of time on the machine, so one simulation may represent the total play on a weekend visit to Las Vegas, Biloxi, Atlantic City, etc.
Obviously, 50 simulations represent 360,000 hands of play and, if you are betting five quarters at a time, it amounts to $450,000 of total bets. If you're a dollar player, this would be an astonishing $1,800,000 of "action" which should qualify you for a lot of good comps at all but the stingiest of casinos.
As you'll see, a lot can happen to your bankroll in 7200 hands of play. Wild swings can and do occur but knowing that helps, I think, especially if you have any doubts about the "randomness" of a machine, be it in a brick-and-mortar casino, or in a cyber-casino.
The Methodology
All of these simulations were run in the Autoplay mode of WinPoker, version 6.0. The program does not keep track of the highs and lows reached during a simulation, so I had to "eyeball" that as it was running. But, for our purposes here, I believe the accuracy achieved is adequate. All I basically did was to run one 7200-hand simulation after another, record the highs, lows and final result and then compile them into the table you'll see below. I then extracted certain averages, streaks, etc. which I though might be helpful.
Several points to remember about these sims: First, WinPoker plays each hand 'perfectly' and we humans probably don't, so the results here are undoubtedly better than the average player will receive. Secondly, a total simulation of 360,000 hands at any Video Poker game is nowhere near "the long run". It's actually about 10% of "the long run" so it will be surprising to find that the total return for a simulation matches that of the paytable for the game covered.
But, all-in-all, I think these sims have considerable practical use because they represent what may happen to any of us in a given number of hands at our favorite Video Poker game. Just remember: your mileage may vary.
The Games
This series will eventually cover the majority of all Video Poker games out there, such as Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, Joker Poker, etc. which means this may go on for a long time. We'll cover "full-pay" versions, games with progressives and weird variations, if possible, so if there's a game which interests you, please e-mail me at aceten1@mindspring.com and I'll try to do a sim on it.
Part 6: Fortified Jacks: Cryptologic's Double Bonus Poker
The pay schedule for this game offers a long-term return of 99.94% if played perfectly. Here's what it looks like:
| Royal Flush | 4200 |
| Straight Flush | 250 |
| 4 Aces | 750 |
| 4 2s,3s,4s | 450 |
| 4 5-Kings | 250 |
| FullHouse | 40 |
| Flush | 25 |
| Straight | 20 |
| 3 of a Kind | 10 |
| Two Pair | 10 |
| Jacks or Better | 5 |
| Simulation Recap |
|---|
| Number of hands played: | 360,000 |
| Total Loss: | 23,420 credits ($5855.00 in a $.25 game) |
| Expected Loss: | 1080 credits ($270 in a $.25 game) |
| Slot Club Cash Back ($.25 game): | $450 (0.10%)
$675 (0.15%)
|
| Note: | The slot club cash back has not been subtracted from the "loss" amount. |
| Winning sessions: | 19 Average Win: +1770 credits |
| Losing sessions: | 31 Average loss: -1840 credits |
| Biggest win: | +5415 credits (115.04% return) |
| Smallest win: | +20 credits |
| Biggest loss: | -3405 credits (90.54% return) |
| Smallest loss: | -115 credits |
| Royal Flushes received: | 6 (Sessions marked with an "R") |
| Longest losing streak: | -16330 credits (sessions 36-44) |
Comments: Because this game is currently found only on Internet casinos that use Cryptologic software, I included the cash-back percentage that most of those casinos offer; 0.10% or 0.15%. I've written about this game before and call it "Fortified Jacks" because it should be played with a Jacks or Better strategy, rather than a Double Bonus Strategy (see "Fortified Jacks" which is archived on this page for more information.) Although this game returns 99.9% in the long run, you can see from the results of this simulation that significant losses can occur until that magical "long term" point is reached.
In fact, after I completed the runs recorded below, I kept going in order to see how long it would take to get back to about the break-even point. When the first 50 sims were completed, I was down by over 23,000 credits and it took another 187,200 hands to get back to even, if the slot-club cash of 0.15% is included! So, a total of 547,200 hands were played and the final result was just about $0. At a rate of play of 400 hands/hr., which is easily done on the Cryptologic software, over 1350 hours of play was needed to accomplish this. Of course, some players could get ahead right away and stay on the plus side for just as long, but this will illustrate the frustrations of playing a game that offers no player advantage.
The frequency of the Royal Flush is a big factor in how well you'll do at any Video Poker game and, if played perfectly, a player can expect to receive one every 40,144 hands, on average, at this version. In the sim, I got 6 of the "expected" 9, so that had a big effect on the final results. However, there's nothing unusal about getting only 6 in 360,000 hands of play, so it underscores the need for a big bankroll and lots of patience if you want to play this game.
The Simulation Sessions (all figures are in credits or coins) |
|---|
| Session | High Point | Low Point | End Result | % Return | Net Profit/Loss |
| 1. | +3370 | - 560 | +2435 | 106.76% | +2435 |
| 2. | +5 | -3200 | - 2240 | 93.78% | + 195 |
| 3. | 0 | -3615 | -3585 | 90.04% | -3390 |
| 4. | +10 | -2040 | -1880 | 94.78% | -5270 |
| 5. | +170 | -2600 | -2600 | 92.78% | -7870 |
| 6. | +370 | -1065 | -510 | 98.58% | -8380 |
| 7. | (R) +3385 | -1330 | +3085 | 108.57% | -5295 |
| 8. | +150 | 11605 | -1520 | 95.78% | -6815 |
| 9. | +10 | -2240 | -1930 | 94.64% | -8795 |
| 10. | (R) +3865 | -935 | +2660 | 107.39% | -6085 |
| 11. | +75 | -2665 | -2605 | 92.76% | -8690 |
| 12. | +1730 | -375 | -260 | 99.28% | -8950 |
| 13. | (R) +2645 | -1850 | +2515 | 106.99% | -6435 |
| 14. | +25 | -2695 | -2075 | 94.28% | -8510 |
| 15. | 0 | -2240 | -2215 | 93.85% | -10725 |
| 16. | (R) +5380 | -45 | +1825 | 105.07% | -8900 |
| 17. | +2000 | -520 | +1440 | 104.00% | -7460 |
| 18. | +45 | -1410 | -1390 | 96.14% | -8850 |
| 19. | +370 | -2880 | -1370 | 96.19% | -10220 |
| 20. | +120 | -3220 | -3110 | 91.36% | -13330 |
| 21. | +10 | -2760 | -2755 | 92.35% | -16085 |
| 22. | (R) +6565 | -1445 | +4185 | 111.63% | -11900 |
| 23. | +1780 | -575 | +1055 | 103.01% | -10845 |
| 24. | +495 | -1400 | -1355 | 96.24% | -12200 |
| 25. | +1690 | -795 | +1210 | 103.36% | -10990 |
| 26. | +240 | -1995 | -1865 | 94.82% | -12855 |
| 27. | +3020 | -25 | +2110 | 105.86% | -10745 |
| 28. | +2035 | -95 | +1795 | 104.99% | -8950 |
| 29. | +410 | -2300 | -2045 | 94.32% | -10995 |
|
| 30. | +35 | -2015 | -1970 | 94.53% | -12965 |
31. | +1565 | -695 | -655 | 98.18% | -13620 |
| 32. | +330 | -1440 | -1255 | 96.51% | -14875 |
| 33. | +1470 | -975 | +35 | 100.10% | -14840 |
| 34. | +1860 | -10 | +580 | 101.61% | -14260 |
| 35. | +2780 | -40 | +1520 | 104.22% | -12740 |
| 36. | +90 | -3405 | -3405 | 90.54% | -16145 |
| 37. | +75 | -1995 | -1920 | 94.67% | -18065 |
| 38. | +25 | -2595 | -2330 | 93.53% | -20395 |
| 39. | +875 | -2410 | -2285 | 93.65% | -22680 |
| 40. | +2135 | -2375 | -2350 | 93.47% | -25030 |
| 41. | +115 | -1165 | -1085 | 96.99% | -26115 |
| 42. | +1070 | -1670 | -1635 | 95.46% | -27750 |
| 43. | +820 | -400 | -115 | 99.68% | -27865 |
| 44. | +395 | -2070 | -1205 | 96.65% | -29070 |
| 45. | +1035 | -690 | +895 | 102.49% | -28175 |
| 46. | +930 | -895 | +295 | 100.82% | -27880 |
| 47. | +50 | -2110 | -1560 | 95.67% | -29440 |
| 48. | +680 | -875 | +585 | 101.63% | -28855 |
| 49. | +380 | -1570 | +20 | 100.06% | -28835 |
| 50. | (R) +6010 | -60 | +5415 | 115.04% | -23420 |
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The GameMaster Online, Inc.