I'm certain that all of us enjoy hitting the "big" hands in Video Poker; the four Aces, Five-of-a-Kind and, of course, the Royal. But did you know that some of us get our big hands at a discount? That's right. Not all of us pay the same price for the "thrilling" hands and, since you have a friend in the business (me), I'm going to get you the same deal.

But, as always, I want to be completely honest with you here. I don't actually get a discount. What happens is that I don't overpay for my big hands and that basically amounts to a discount, I suppose. Let me show you what I mean with this hand, which is from a full-pay version of Deuces Wild:

What we have been dealt is a "wild" Royal and that pays 125 coins. The alternative is to hold just the three 2s and go for the fourth deuce and that will pay 1000 coins, should we get it. A 1000-coin pay off is a lot more thrilling than 'just' 125 coins, so what to do?

If you've spent much time here, you'll know that we turn to what's called "expectation" when it comes to answering questions like this. Obviously, no one can predict, with any assurance, that the fourth 2 will show on the draw, so we have to look at this hand from a mathematical point of view. If we hold the wild Royal, we'll be paid 125 coins, so that's our basis of comparison. Should we decide to hold only the three 2s, exactly 1081 different hands will result. Of those 1081 hands, 817 will end as a four-of-a-kind, 119 will end as a Straight Flush, 66 will end as a five-of-a-kind, 33 will end as another wild Royal and 46 will give us the four deuces. If you add up all those possible outcomes, it will work out to an average return of 74.7965 coins. Yes, 46 of those hands will pay 1000, but most of them will pay only 25 coins and the rest will fall somewhere in between.

While you may play Video Poker only once or twice a year, the "long run" still affects you. Obviously not as much as it affects someone who plays 40 hours a week, but right now - today - you have a choice of a guaranteed 125 coins against a "shot" at 1000 coins. Sure, you'll look like a hero if you hit it, but it's a 1035 out of 1081 bet that you won't. So the argument that taking a gamble like this is worth it just doesn't add up.

"Hey, GM", I hear you saying, "that's why it's called gambling."

True, but if you want to make it big and do it quickly, take your entire bankroll and go put it on # 26 at the Roulette table. If you hit, it'll be big and that will only take a few minutes, so it'll be fast. But I know you're not inclined to do that because you want your $$$ to at least last for a while and give you several shots at a big win. If that's true, then you're starting to think as I do and that is to make the time and $$$ you spend in a casino more of an investment and less of a gamble. It won't always pay off - I don't win every time, either - but you'll have a better opportunity to hit the "big" win because you'll simply be able to play more hands. I might not hit as many four deuces as someone who always goes for it, but I'll bet (and I'm not a gambler) that I make more $$$, both short-term and long-term, because most of the thrilling hands require you to bust up a better hand to get it. By keeping the better hand, I'll usually come out ahead in any given period of time. Having said that, I fully recognize that situations like the ones I'm presenting here are actually quite rare. It's not often that you'll be dealt a wild Royal with three deuces, so however you play it won't make a big difference in "the long run"( he's using those words again), but if you're willing to play without a plan, it's like the White Rabbit told Alice: "If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there". Gambling is a very personal activity and we each do it in a way that satisfies us and us alone. But, you're here for a reason and I suspect that it's because you'd like to at least lose less, if not win more, so please keep my thoughts in mind.

So that you'll know the cost of some of the more tempting choices you may come across, here are a few examples, categorized by the type of game:

Full-Pay Deuces Wild

Here we have a five-of-a-kind with three deuces. Hold it or go for the "ducks"?

Hold all: 75.00
Hold three 2s: 74.73

Okay, if you want to "gamble", do it with this one, especially if the version you play has a lower payout on the Straight Flush.

Full-Pay Jacks or Better

This hand offers a 'made' Straight that pays 25 coins, or you can go for the Straight Flush that pays 250 coins.

Hold the Straight: 25.00
Hold 4 spades: 18.51

This is a rare hand and you're not giving up a huge amount to go for the Straight Flush, so let your conscience be your guide.

Full-Pay All American

This game pays 1000 coins for a Straight Flush and 40 coins for a Straight. Draw the right card and your return is multiplied 25 times. Here are the numbers involved:

Hold the Straight: 40.00
Hold 4 diamonds: 29.79

If the 'odd' card was on either end, then you would go for the SF. But, because it's an "inside" draw, holding the Straight is the better play. However, I won't be there to watch you play it, so it's up to you. But don't do it for me, do it for yourself.

Full-Pay Double Bonus Poker

The game pays 800 coins for the four Aces and 50 for the Full House. Here are the numbers:

Hold the Full House: 50.00
Hold three Aces: 50.57

So, now we have one where it's worth "going for it". And keep in mind that this is an even better play if the Full House pays ony 45 coins.

I could easily go on and on with this, but I hope I've given you something to think about. By the way, all the calculations here were performed by the "Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker" software that was developed by Dean Zamzow (www.zamzone.com). I personally think every Video Poker player should have this fabulous program, so check it out.

See you here next time.

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