 |
Video Poker Archive 30,000 hands of video poker This is a continuation of a previous article ("15,000 Hands of Video Poker") and it will give you an idea of what to expect when you play the game for about 60 hours. These hands were all played on a 'practice' game of 9/6 Jacks or Better on my computer and the program keeps track of the results on a cumulative basis. While your results in 60 hours of play may vary significantly, this little exercise will at least give you a feel for what can happen, since my results are, to this point, about average. Sixty hours or 30,000 hands of play is nowhere near what we call 'the long term'. Ten times that amount is more like it, but for many of you, 60 hours of play may represent several months or even a year's worth of video poker. That being the case, this article may help explain why you always seem to lose at the game. For me, 60 hours is about two weeks of play and, during that time, I also lose most sessions. Video poker is a long term endeavor which requires sufficient $$$, an obvious commitment of time and stalwart patience. Back in October or November, 1998, I wrote about how I had dropped $10,000 from my high point of earnings for the year, but vowed to hang in there. To update that story, I kept losing and was down $20,000 from my high point (though still profitable) before things began to turn around. In the last week, I've hit two Royals which totaled over $10,000, so I've made back about half of my downswing. It wasn't easy I can tell you, watching the $$$ flow out session after session, but I believe in what I'm doing and I know I have an edge. But to play 186,000 hands of VP, as I did, without hitting a Royal causes an outflow of cash which is frightening. (A Royal will be hit, on average, once every 40,000 hands....shows you what averages are worth.) I play $1 machines almost exclusively and have a $30,000 bankroll for that purpose, but you can see that a quarter player would have lost $5000 in the same circumstances. The other key point here is that I play only profitable games. By that, I mean that I don't just sit down at any machine; I know when I put that first dollar in that: A) I know the long term return on that game is over 100% and, B) I know the proper playing strategy needed to realize that return. I could spend more time in the casinos, but then I couldn't devote as much time to practice and that would cost me. Let me give you an example of what happened recently. I like to play a 9/7 Double Bonus machine with a progressive Royal and the other day it was at $6200+. The 'general' rule at Double Bonus is to hold any hand of two-pair which is dealt to you, but with the Full House paying just 45 for 5 (instead of 50 for 5 on the full-pay version), it's worthwhile to break two-pair to draw to 10, J, Q suited when the Royal's that high. I was dealt two-pair, 10s and Qs, with a Jack 'kicker' and three of them were suited. I went for the Royal and got it. That is, of course, an arcane hand which most won't see in a lifetime and no one could fault you for holding the two pair. But, it meant the difference to me of $45 versus $6200. Playing beatable games properly will bring you the $$$. I should also point out that my losses were mitigated somewhat by the slot club cash rebates that I received, about $2500 during the period. I say this all the time and I'll say it again: join the slot club and use your card! I get offers of free cash and I accept them; I participate in all the casino 'giveaways' that I can. In fact, I have a 'route' set up so that I'm at casino "X" on triple-point Tuesdays, at casino "Y" on 'Wild Wednesday', etc. The 'extra' $$$ you can get from these situations are simply to important to ignore. I was just reading an article about the slot clubs in Atlantic City and found a beaut. It seems the Claridge has a slot club cash rebate which amounts to .75% of all the $$$ you play. They also have 9/6 Jacks or Better games which return 99.54% for optimal play. That, combined with the rebate, gives the skilled player a 100.29% long term return. At a rate of 600 hands an hour, it's worth almost $9 an hour to play there at dollar machines. A double-points day (if they offer it) would be worth over $30 an hour! Okay, sermon over. I know I get on the pulpit sometimes, but it's from a genuine desire to help you win and winning isn't easy, but it can be done. So, here is an update on my 30,000 hands of VP at a 9/6 Jacks or Better game. Now remember that this game has a long term return of 99.54%, so any serious play must have that return supplemented, either by a good slot club cash rebate, or other promos. In my 'real' play, I have 9/6 Jacks games with progressive Royals available and I only risk my $$$ when the Royal is over $5000. That, combined with the slot club cash and other promos, gives me an expected return of at least 100.3%. I've displayed the numbers here in such a way as to show how many hands of each type I expected to get and how many I actually got, along with the total return to date. Of course, one cannot get .75 of a Royal, but it will give you an idea of probability against reality.
Expected total return (excluding the Royal): 97.56% I'm currently down by 1235 coins (of 150,000 bet) which is not bad at all. Since the Royal adds almost 2% of the total return, the 'effective' payback is 97.56% until the 'ship' comes in. But, primarily through receiving an above-expectation amount of 4Ks, I'm hanging in there quite well. If we add in a .25% slot club, I'd also have $375 in cash rebates, since these 30,000 hands represent $150,000 in total bets at a dollar machine, so I'd be at a net loss of $860 for these 60 hours of play. And each hand brings me closer to the Royal. See you here next time. ©copyright, 1999 The GameMaster Online, Inc. |
