THE PERSONAL TRUTH ABOUT ODDS IN CRAPS

A friend of mine has been a professional gambler almost all his life. I once asked him what the best bet was. He answered, “The best bet the is one you win.” That sounded pretty good to me. Unfortunately most people can not find this type of bet often enough to make a living at the tables. As far as I am concerned a good bet is one that pays off as close as possible to the real or “true” odds. Knowing how to figure this out will could make you a better informed and a more effective player.

What are odds and how are they calculated? Some, like the odds in sports or horse betting, are the results of informed opinions of people who’s jobs are to study past performances, the current state of the participants’ health, how they look at practice, etc. There are many different games in a casino. Each has its odds figured in a different way due but primarily figured to make sure the player will lose more times than win; this insures the casino will get a certain percentage of every dollar you bet. To be an effective player you have to compare the odds against winning to the pay off to get the best bets for the money.

I will be using craps to explain how odds are determined. I won’t be explaining the entire game but hopefully by the end of this column you will have a better understanding of odds and some of the bets on the craps table. With one exception there won’t be any display of percentages here. There are plenty of books and articles that have them if you are interested, or you can figure them out.

The odds against winning any bet in craps is determined by comparing the number ways to win a bet compared to the number of ways to lose it. “Ways” in craps refers to the amount of dice combination for any given number. With the two, six sided dice used in craps there are a total of 36 ways or possible combinations. Here is a ways table to display them:

2: 1-1 (1/36)
3: 1-2, 2-1 (2/36)
4: 1-3, 3-1, 2-2 (3/36)
5: 1-4, 4-2, 2-3, 3-2 (4/36)
6: 1-5, 5-1, 4-2, 2-4, 3-3 (5/36)
7: 1-6, 6-1, 2-5, 5-2, 3-4, 4-3 (6/36)
8: 2-6, 6-2, 3-5, 5-3, 4-4 (5/36)
9: 3-6, 6-3, 4-5, 5-4 (4/36)
10: 4-6, 6-4, 5-5 (3/36)
11: 5-6, 6-5 (2/36)
12: 6-6 (1/36)

Now, before you start yelling at your computer screen, “Hey, no fair! Look at the 11. A 5 and 6 are the same as 6 and 5.” If you are getting confused, think of a red die and a blue die (two are dice, one is a die) or any two colors you choose. This should make it easier for your to see the different combinations. If you have nothing else to do for a while, roll a pair of dice a hundred times and keep track of each roll. It will resemble the “ways” table.

On the craps table there are different types of odds: the odds against winning a bet, also known as “true” or real odds, the pay-off odds and bets called laying or taking odds.

In order to better understand the difference between “true” odds and “pay-off” odds we will take a look at some of the proposition bets, those bets in the middle of the table. The pay offs I’m going to use are generally the same as those on the Strip in Las Vegas. Downtown casinos and some off strip properties may have slightly different, even slightly better pay offs.

We will start with the “hard way” bets. A hard way may be bet any time you like. You may remove your hard way bets or move them to different bets any time before you lose. The only way to win is for the dice to come up as shown on the table. The HARD 8(H8) is won if it is thrown hard, that is a 4-4. If easy 8 eight (any other combination adding up to 8, such as 3-5) or a 7 is thrown you will lose your bet on the H8.

By checking the “ways” table we can see that there are six ways to make a 7 and four ways to make an easy 8, so there are ten ways to lose (L). There is only one way to win (W) the H8, 4-4. The odds(10L/1W) are 10 to 1 against winning the H8 bet.

The payoff for the H8 is 10 FOR 1; it says so right on the table under the picture of the dice showing the two fours. However, this is not the same as 10 to 1. In casino-math the word FOR means subtract one from the pay off. For example, if you had $1 bet on the H8 and won, the pay off would be your $1 plus the casino’s $9 for a total of $10. So, while the real or “true” odds against throwing a H8 are ten to one, the pay off is actually nine to one.

How about the ANY 7 bet? You get one roll to make a 7 to win; anything other than a 7, you lose.

Going back to the “ways” table you notice that there are six ways to make a 7, so there are 6 ways to win (W). There are thirty ways to lose (L) (thirty-six total possible combinations minus the six ways to make a 7 = 30). The odds against winning are (30L/6W = 5/1) 5 to 1. However the pay-off indicated on the table says 5 FOR 1, so the pay off is really 4 to 1.

How about betting on the 12? There is one way to win and thirty-five ways to lose. The odds against rolling a 12 on any one roll are 35 to 1. The pay-off says 30 FOR 1. If you win you should be getting back $35 for every $1 you bet but instead, you get back $29 remember casino-math.

It is exciting to throw a $5 check and yell, “Twelve!” and watch it come in, winning $145 (plus your original $5 bet = $150). Do not count on winning this type of bet with any regularity. The difference between the “true” odds and the pay-off is what gives the casino its built in advantage. Even if everyone played perfectly and the dice landed as statistics indicate they should, the casino would still take a percentage of every dollar played due to this difference.

The “taking odds” bet: This is the best bet in Las Vegas. How can you tell? If for no other reason, because you will never hear a craps stick-man say, “Take the odds,” as part of his chatter. As a dealer you get used to players’ styles of betting. Sometimes they forget a bet they would normally make and appreciate it (sometimes with a nice tip) if they are reminded. For example, a guy who always has a bet on the H8, just lost it and didn’t re-bet it, would get a friendly, “Your hard eight fell, do you want it back up [it lost, do you want to bet it again?]?” This is part of the service offered by a good dealer and encouraged by the casino. The more bets on the table the more $$$ the casino makes. This is even true for the odds bet, to some extent. This bet, however, has the potential to cost the casino’s more money over the long run than any other bet on the table.

A dealer friend of mine told me of an incident when a player didn’t put down his odds bet as he usually did. The pit boss heard the dealer remind him and whispered harshly in my ear, “You tell another @#$!&^ person to bet the %$#@!&* odds, find another ^%$^&$@ place to work.” The bosses would be happy if the odds bet just went away.

The (taking) odds bet is made after a PASS line point is established or with a COME bet after it is moved from the COME line to one of the six numbers (4,5,6,8,9,10) at the top of the playing area. Let’s say I bet $5 on the PASS line on the come out roll (no point yet). I roll a 4 so that becomes the point. I take another $5 and place it behind the PASS line bet as an odds bet. If a 7 shows before a 4, I lose. To win I have to roll another 4 before I roll a 7. I roll another 4 and I win! The $5 bet on the PASS line pays $5, even money. The odds bet pays $10, 2 to 1.

Why does the odds bet pay 2 to 1?. There are six ways to lose (by throwing a 7) and three ways to win (by throwing a 4). The odds against throwing a 4 before a 7 are (6L/3W = 2/1) 2 to 1. You are starting to see it, right? The pay off (2 to 1) is exactly the same as the “true” odds against making a 4 before a 7. That means the odds bet itself has ZERO advantage to the house; of course there is no advantage to you either. It is the only bet in the city where there is no advantage to the casino. However, because a PASS line or COME line bet is required to make an odds bet the overall percentage in favor of the casino on the odds bet is around .8%. That is 8/10ths of a percent! If there is a bet in Las Vegas that has less percentage in favor of the casino I would like to hear about it.

This is why casino’s that advertise multiple X odds on craps do such a good business. Betting in a casino that only allows single odds means you can only take odds up to the amount of your line bet. If you want to take $25 worth of odds you have to have a $25 line bet; conversely, with that line bet the most odds you can have is $25. If you win on a 4 as the point, you win even money ($25) for the line bet and 2 to 1($50) for the odds bet for a total win of $75. Let us roll the same point in a casino that allows 10 times (X) odds on craps with the same $50 to bet. With a $5 PASS line bet you can bet the remaining $45 as odds. If you lose you have lost the same amount of money as if you had bet $25 on the pass line and $25 odds. If you win with a point of 4 you win even money ($5) for the line bet and 2 to 1 ($90) on the odds bet for a total of $95.

I have seen a lot of people bet $100 on the PASS line with no odds when they would have been better off betting a smaller amount on the line and betting what remained of the $100 as odds. The same amount of money is bet but the pay-off would be higher the bet is won. Take all the odds you can but do not bet more than you can afford to lose.

Now you have a way, at least on the craps table, to figure out which are the best bets for the money. Sure, betting the propositions are fun but save them until you are ahead and bet them with the casino’s money. There are no guarantees you will win but making the best bets for the money will make you a more effective player.

Good luck.