Dear Mark,
A friend and I want to invest in a card counting system that costs $1,500. It comes with a 100% guarantee that I will become an expert counter. First, what exactly is card counting? Should we invest $1,500 in this system? Finally, if not this system, what do you recommend?
Peter T.
Phoenix, AZ

Hang on to your hard-earned money, Peter. Although you did not mention the system by name, it probably comes from one of many self-anointed authorities that have created a cottage industry of seminars, tapes, books and newsletters on card counting. For most of these so-called experts, writing about playing is more lucrative than playing itself.

Card counters, theoretically, gain an advantage of between 0.5 and 1.5 percent against the casino. The premise behind card counting is quite simple. Big cards (10s, aces) favor the player, while small cards (2-6) favor the dealer. All card counting systems, including the one that's beckoning to your $1,500, keep track of the relationship of small cards to big cards remaining in the deck. When the remaining unused deck favors the player (more big cards than small ones) you bet more money. When it favors the dealer (more smalls than bigs), you bet less.

The simplest count to learn is a one level count, a.k.a. the Hi-Lo counting system. It assigns these values to each card.
2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (small cards).......................+1
7, 8, 9 (neutral cards)............................ 0
10, J, Q, K, Ace (big cards)....................-1

Once you get the hang of card counting, plan on many hours in smoke-filled casinos, performing tedious mental calculations while disguising your play, so you won't be thrown out-just for a one-percent edge.

Pit bosses play the cat and mouse game as well. They hassle counters by putting more decks in the game, burying more cards on the shuffle, stopping mid-entry shoe betting, having the dealer shuffle half way through the deck, and when all else fails, back you off the game. When they suspect you of counting, a pit boss may say, "Peter, we appreciate your patronage but we're going to ask you to stop playing blackjack here. Feel free to play any of the other table games we offer." Translation: "If you don't check your brain at the front door, we're going to toss your hind end out." Still gung-ho, Peter? Allow me to suggest two of many good books that have been written on card counting: Playing Blackjack as a Business by Lawrence Revere and Arnold Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack. You can thank me later for saving you $1,470. Nevertheless, before you learn the intricacies of card counting in either of these two books, you first must learn basic strategy.

Why basic strategy? Because blackjack, Peter, is a unique casino game that allows players to make playing decisions that will affect the outcome of their bet. Poor to average play allows the casino a 5-8% edge over the player. If, however, you learn perfect basic strategy, that edge can be reduced to less than 1%, making for terrific wagering odds, almost on a par with the impossible dream-card counting without harassment. And don't forget, Peter, you can really sharpen your play by finding the following combination of rules favorable to the player:

o a single deck game
o surrender, both early and late
o double down allowed on any two cards
o double down allowed after splitting pairs
o multiple pair splitting allowed, plus re-splitting aces
o dealer stands on a soft 17
o deep deck penetration

Finally, Peter, Dr. Edward Thorp, who wrote the classic Beat the Dealer, was a professional in the investment business. Even he conceded it is far easier to make money in the financial markets than at blackjack. That said, my final recommendation is to take the $1,500 and wager it on a Fidelity mutual fund.

Gambling thought of the week: "Better an ounce of luck than a pound of gold." -Yiddish Proverb

Got a question about gambling? E-mail Pilarski at: pilarski@dealmein.org · To order Mark Pilarski's "Hooked on Winning" audio cassettes-laminated win cards package ($12.95 plus $2. S&H) call (800) WINNERS.