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Casino Comps
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Casino Comps: Expected Win (The Casinos, Not Yours)

Walk into any major casino and you'll find an area devoted to player clubs and player cards. I've made the mistake of standing in line only to find out it was the slot club I was about to join. You'll find that a few casinos combine both slot and table play on the same card and some casinos don't have a player card program for table play. Ever wonder why? Read on!

Next time you're in your favorite casino find the slot club player card area and pick up information explaining how their club works. Do the same thing for the table games player card. Compare the information you get on the two clubs and I think you'll find a major difference between the two.

The slot club information will provide you with enough information so you know what you have to do to qualify for their various award levels. For example, the one I'm looking at touts "free" breakfast for two with 2500 points or more. When you realize that to get to 2500 points you have to pump $2500 through the slots you may wonder if it's worth it. If the slot machine is returning 98% (slots vary from lows in the 85% range up to 99.5%) your "free" breakfast for two could cost you $50!

Next, look at the information you were given on the table games player card. What do you have to do get a free (comp) breakfast for two? I'm betting you won't find this information or any other award level information when it comes to table play.

So, why do casinos publish required play levels for slots and not for table games?

First of all, the casinos know exactly how much return they are going to get on slot machines. Based on the settings, a slot machine will return a specific percentage to the house, over and over and over. No individual is going to get "hot" at a slot machine and hit the house for a big score. Over the long haul the slots just keep returning a predetermined percentage to the house.

Casinos provide comps (complementaries) to players based on expected win, their expected win, not yours! (And you thought you could get all those freebies for just being a nice guy. Forget it!)

A casino will normally return somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the house expected win to the player. The percent varies from casino to casino. One host confided in me that the percentage is based on a number of factors but that the major factor was the casino debt. If a casino has just made major upgrades and the debt is high, they may be returning a lower percentage.

For you non-analytical types, stick with me as this may get a bit technical. Let's take an example.

Suppose you're a slot player and have reached the 2500 point level. To achieve this you've pumped through $2500 in the slots. Let's also assume that the slots are set to return (to the player) 98% which means that the casino will retain 2% of every dollar bet. The casino is looking at an expected win of $50 based on your $2500 worth of action (2% times $2500). With slots it's really not expected, it's fairly sure! If the casino is returning 30% of their expected win to the customer, in the form of comps, you can expect $15 in comp value (30% times $50 = $15).

Table games are different. A "Hot" player can hit a crap table or blackjack table for a big score. It has happened in the past, and it will happen again in the future. The house expected win at table games is difficult to determine. It's not like a slot machine where the percentage is preset. Understand that the house has an advantage at all the table games. The following shows just a few.

Blackjack 3% - 5%
Craps (Pass line, single odds) 1.4%
Craps (Pass line, double odds) .6%
Roulette 5.26%
Keno 25%
Baccarat (Player) 1.36

The formula for determining the house expected win at table games is more complex. It's based on average bet, bets per hour, and hours played. For example, assume that you are a $10 blackjack player.

In blackjack the casinos figure between 60 and 100 hands per hour based on the number of players at a table, the players speed, and the speed of the dealer, etc. If you were to bet just $10 a hand and both the players and the dealers were of average speed the computation would look something like the following:

$10 (bet) (times) 75 (hands per hour) = $750 (per hour action)

If the casinos expected win is 4%, then they expect to win $30. (4% X $750=$30). If they use a 40% comp return, the comp value would be $12 ($30 x 40%=$12).

A number of variables can enter the picture. What if the player varies their bet, increasing it when they win and dropping back when they lose? What if the cards are running in favor of the player? The dealer? What happens if the floor person is busy at other tables and doesn't see you place a big bet (or a small one)? What is the skill level of the player(s) being rated? Add in the potential human error in both recording the information, and entering it into a computer, and the process gets even more complicated. Since the comps casinos give are base on expected win (the casinos), what do they do if you win?

The casinos are aware of all the these variables, and more. That's why they don't publish the specifics for table games. But, it's important for you to know, and to check with your host on your hours played and your average bet. Your comps depend on it!

Most casinos will tell you that they require 4 hours of play a day at a $25 per hand bet to qualify for their casino room rate. What they don't tell you is that if you play for more hours at a lower bet per hand you could still qualify. Look at it this way. If they require 4 hours of play at $25 a hand you should still qualify if you and your wife each play for 8 hours a day at an average bet of $10 per hand.

Player A: (4 hours) x (60 hands/hour)= 240 hands (240 hands) x $25 = $6000 action

You and Your Wife: (16 hours) x (60 hands/hour) = 960 hands (960 hands) x $10 = $ $9600 action

Which player is exposing more money for the casino to win? Don't sell your self (your play) short just because you only bet $5 or $10 per hand. If you bet $10 a hand and vary your bet based on winning runs, your average bet should be higher than $10. If your average is only $15 a hand you only have to play for 6 3/4 hours to equal a $25 bettor playing for 4 hours. Don't be afraid to ask the pit personnel what they are using for your average bet and make sure you ask your casino host or a player card representative how you are being rated. Your rating, and your comps, depend on hours played and average bet.

Check on them! Remember, you have to ASK!
Year. And remember, when you know how, it's easy!

About the Author: Paul Enockson is is a teacher, lecturer, author, and computer software developer. He is the author of "Casino Comp Basics - A Casino Comp Manual For The $10 and Up Bettor". For details on his manual, visit his web site at http://www.compbasics.com/compbasics/. His most recent accomplishment is his new Las Vegas web site at http://www.aGlitter.Com, a site containing a wealth of information on Las Vegas Room Deals, Casino specifics, shows, attractions, tournaments, winning tips and much more!






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