GameMasters Secret's Page
The GameMaster's Secrets
Betting Football

I've got to start by saying that I don't bet sports, simply because the house "edge", to me, is much too large. But judging by the traffic we get at our sports betting page -- The Real Ralphie-- a lot of you do bet or are considering it,especially on football, so I thought I'd give the "newbies" some thoughts and mathematics on just how it all works.

In football, most bets are made, not as "odds" bets (3 to 1, etc.), but are based on a "point spread". The favorite team must win by a certain number of points for those who bet on that team to collect. For example, if the Rams are expected to win against Jacksonville, the spread may be Rams at Jacksonville + 3 1/2. That means that the Rams must win by 4 points or more in order for those who bet on them to collect. If the game ends at Rams 14, Jacksonville 12, those who bet on the Rams will LOSE, even though the team won outright. By the same token, those who bet on the Jaguars would win, since they get a 3 1/2 point "handicap".

The object of the spread is not to predict who will win, but to keep the betting even on both sides so the bookmaker can take his cut with little, if any, risk. Imagine a game where your local junior college was going to play the Dallas Cowboys. There's no doubt that Dallas will win; the question here is, by how much? A bookmaker may set the line as Dallas at Podunk Tech +77. This means that if dear ol' Podunk can hold Dallas to just 11 touchdowns, those who bet on the hometown squad can win some $$$. Well, with 77 points on your side, you might be tempted to bet a few shekels on the kids and that helps the bookmaker to "square" his book. This market-style action is why the "line" will move during the week; it's an effort to keep the betting equal.

A bet in football is usually $11, or some multiple thereof (most are $110.) If you win, you get your $110 back along with a $100 profit. If you lose, you just kiss the $110 goodbye. From this, we can determine that the "house edge" is 4.55%. The math is simple: two bets of $110 are made --one on the favorite and one on the opponent -- and one will win. The winner gets $110 + $100 = $220 and the "house" keeps $10. For the total "action" of $220, $10 is 4.55%.

The only way you can overcome this edge is by being right on more games than you were wrong. The math here is equally simple. If you bet 1000 games and were right 50% of the time, you would have bet $110,000 and would have received back 500 x $100 + 500 X $110 = $105,000 which reflects the 4.55% edge. But, if you won 524 games and lost 476, your bankroll would be 524 X $100 + 524 X $110 = $110,040. That's because the break-even point to overcome the house edge is 52.4%.

Now, take a look at the "scorecard" for some of the advisors which we have doing football picks in "Real Ralphie"(HOTLINK). If they are above 52.4%, they're making money with their picks. Let's say one has 8 wins and 4 losses (66%) for the season, thus far. At $110 a game, they have won $800 and have lost $440, so the net gain is $360 on 12 X $110 = $1320 total action. That's a 27% return on the total funds wagered. An advisor who is 7 and 5 (58%) has won $700 and lost $550, so the net win is $150 on $1320 action which gives an 11% return. An advisor who is 6 and 6 has won $600, lost $660 and has a net loss of $60. That works out to -- you guessed it -- a loss of 4.55% on the total bets.

So, am I saying this is a good deal or a bad deal? Well, it's not for me to say. If you have a specific bankroll set aside for betting football and it's money which won't alter your lifestyle in any way if you lose it, then go ahead and give it a try. But I think you've got to treat this as a business venture; make a plan and follow your plan. Don't over bet and don't chase your losses, because that edge is chipping away at your funds. I know some old, rich bookmakers, but I've never met an old, rich sports bettor. Just as it is in the casino, sports betting isn't a test of your luck or your skill; it's a test of your discipline.