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The GameMaster's Secrets
Recreational Video Poker - Part 2

Video Poker isn't very much fun when you play it with only a profit in mind. The types of games you play are usually limited to one or two, you have to play it perfectly to be sure you'll get the maximum return and you have to play it quite a bit to be assured of getting to the "long run", where the guaranteed profits reside. Add to that all of the training and practice you need to achieve those goals and it's no wonder that few people take the game seriously.

But I want you to know that what I've described above is, to the best of my knowledge, the only way to make a profit at Video Poker. However, if you're willing to risk some of your $$$ (the word is, I believe, "gamble") and can live with the idea of a loss as a cost of entertainment, then I can give you some ideas on how to:

Make your gambling budget, whatever its size, last as long as possible.
Play enough Video Poker to perhaps get some freebies from the casino, be it rooms or food or maybe just a hat or fanny pack.
Enjoy the excitement of gambling, especially if you're with friends.
Have fun.
Perhaps win some $$$.

Learn how to properly play a good game

There's not much sense in learning a game you can't find at your selected destination, so you have to do a little homework first. For example, few casinos outside of Nevada have full-pay Deuces Wild (FPDW) games, so if Atlantic City is where you're headed, you'll need to choose something else. On the other hand, if you're going to Vegas, FPDW is a great choice, but only if you play machines in the $.25 format, because there aren't many dollar FPDW games to be found there.

Ideally, what we'd like to do is choose a game with a high long-term return that's easy to play correctly, has a low "variance" and is available in different denominations. I'll explain those last two points in a bit. Certainly, full-pay Deuces Wild qualifies, except that it's not usually available in denominations above $.25. FPDW has a 100.76% long-term return, a relatively simple strategy and its variance is 25.84 (I promise I'll explain that shortly), so it's a good choice, but the range of bets we can make at the game are limited to basically nickels and quarters, although the multi-line games can help us in that regard.

Another good game is the ubiquitous Jacks or Better. In its 9/6 ( the payout for a one coin bet on the Full House/Flush) format, a 99.5% return is available through proper play, the strategy is a piece of cake and its variance is 19.51. The good thing about 9/6 Jacks is that it can be found in many casinos all over the U.S. and it's typically found in quarter and dollar (or higher) formats. So we'll mark this one as a "possible".

There are many variations of Jacks or Better, such as Bonus Poker, Double Bonus Poker, Double Double Bonus Poker, All American and so on. Forget about All American because it's a game that few casinos offer, probably because it returns 100.7% for perfect play. Bonus Poker, in its full-pay version (8/5 format) has a 99.15% long term return and a variance of 20.90, while Double Bonus Poker in the 10/7 full-pay version has a long-term return of 100.17% and a variance of 28.26. Both of these games can frequently be found in various denominations ranging from $.05 to $1 or more and some even have progressive jackpots for the Royal Flush. Let's mark both of them as "possibles." Joker Poker games can offer some good returns, but I have never seen the full-pay Kings or Better game outside of Nevada and most of the Double Joker games in Atlantic City have terrible pay schedules, so I'm going to skip Joker Poker completely here. The last game I want to put on this list is Pick 'Em Poker. It's not widely available, but I do believe that both Las Vegas and Atlantic City have it in $.25 and $1 versions, it offers a 99.95% long term return and a variance of 15.00, so, even though it's boring as hell to play, I'm going to put it on the list. Just a note of caution: I have heard that there are new versions of this game with a different pay schedule that returns under 99%, so make sure you know what the full-pay version looks like before you play Pick 'Em.

Let's quickly sum up my game choices:

Name	Long-term Return	Variance
Deuces Wild (full-pay)	100.76%	25.84
Jacks or Better (9/6)	99.54%	19.51
Bonus Poker (8/5)	99.15%	20.90
Double Bonus Poker	100.17%	28.26
Pick 'Em Poker	99.95%	15.00

Yes, I know how popular Double Double Bonus Poker is, but the return for perfect play on the 9/6 version is only 98.98% and the variance is a whopping 41.98, so it didn't make the cut. This is a good time to talk about risk of loss.

Bring enough money for the trip

Okay, just how much is "enough"? Well, it all depends. It depends upon the game you play, in which denomination; how long you want to play it and a million other variables. Let's use some averages here. The average visitor to Las Vegas loses $665, according to a show I just saw on the Travel Channel, but let's round that up to $750 and call it our "bankroll." The average visitor stays in Las Vegas for 3 full days and gambles 6 hours a day, which means 18 hours of Video Poker. All of the games listed above can be played very accurately at a rate of 500 hands per hour, give or take, so let's assume you'll play 9000 hands of VP on your trip.

So the trick here is to make that $750 last through 9000 hands of Video Poker and maybe, just maybe, make a profit. The first question we need to answer is: How much can I lose? That's where that variance number comes in. Variance is just a way of measuring what most people call "luck" and I'll spare you the sordid details of the mathematics involved and show you how much you can lose while playing 9000 hands of all the games on our list, if you have a really bad trip (what we call a 3 standard deviation event). I'll assume that you're playing quarters and I'm ignoring any slot club cash rebates.

Deuces Wild:	$1721.00
Jacks or Better:	$1621.00
Bonus Poker:	$1722.00
Double Bonus Poker:	$1876.00
Pick 'Em Poker:	$ 1383.00

Like I said earlier, a loss of this magnitude will happen only if you have a very "unlucky" trip, because there's about a 1 in 20 chance of it being this big. Nonetheless, this is a vivid demonstration of how small a $750 bankroll really is. Therefore, we have to try and improve our situation.

A gambling strategy

You won't find the word "gambling" used a lot around here, because we really don't believe in gambling. But, in this case, it's what we're going to do in order to perhaps - and I want to stress the word, "perhaps" - walk away a winner.

1. Start small - In the early part of your trip, play a nickel or dime machine and see how it goes. If you're lucky and hit some sort of bonus hand like 4 Deuces on a FPDW machine or 4 Aces on a Bonus/Double Bonus machine, sure you'll wish it had been on a quarter machine, but it's still early and you might be showing a profit already! And if you don't hit a bonus-type of hand, think of how much money you saved.

2. Keep track of what's going on - The key to financial survival at most Video Poker games is hitting quads (4-of-a-kind), be it 4 Deuces in FPDW or quad Aces in Bonus or Double Bonus, etc. In 9000 hands of play, you can expect to hit one set of 4 deuces if you're playing FPDW or one set of quad Aces if you're playing Bonus or Double Bonus Poker. Other than the FPDW game, you'll get a set of quads about once every 425 hands and what I want you to do is keep track of what you receive. In the Jacks or Better and its variations, you can expect to hit about 20 sets of quads in your 9000 hands of play, so each time you do, write it down.

3. At about the mid-way point, analyze your results - If you're ahead at this point, great! Keep doing what you're doing. If you're not ahead, but still have some $$$ left, plan your attack. For example, if I were down by $300, had played a lot of Jacks or Better and noticed that I hadn't yet hit many quads (probably why I'm down), I would switch to Double Bonus poker, because a set of quads in that game pays at least 250 coins. Mind you, I'd still play quarters and, while there is no such thing as being "due" for a set of quads, they will eventually come and getting paid 250 is better than the 125 I'll get at the Jacks or Better game. The big risk here is that the quads will still fail to show and your remaining $$$ will disappear even more quickly. Hey, I did say this was gambling!

4. At about the 75% point (somewhere in the beginning of your third day), do another analysis. If you're ahead by a lot, because those quads showed up, decide how important that profit is to you. If it feels good to finally be a winner, then lock some of it up. If you know the $$$ will "burn a hole" in your pocket until you leave, go buy a money order and mail it home to yourself. The amount is up to you, but I guarantee you'll be happy you did that, should the losses start coming. Another approach is to go back to playing nickel or dime games. I know that's difficult, because you've been doing well at a quarter game and now it's tough to get excited about winning $40 for a set of quad Aces. But consider playing a multi-line game, such as five-play where the total bet is $1.25 (5 nickels per hand on 5 lines). While the bet amount is the same as playing a quarter game, your risk is actually somewhat lower because so many of your hands start with pretty good cards.

5. Consider a Martingale "progression" - This really is gambling. A Martingale is where you keep increasing your bet as you lose, with the idea that one win gets you back to even. It's a fool's game in the long run, but it can work for short periods of time. A Martingale in Video Poker can be accomplished by playing a game in a higher denomination. For example, if you've lost $300 at Quarter Double Bonus Poker a set of quad 4s at a dollar game is worth $400 and, voila!, you're even. Oh, if it were only that simple. The risk is big but so are the rewards and only you can decide if this is appropriate, because it's ultimately your $$$.

6. Look for progressives, bonuses, promotions, etc. - Some casinos offer bonuses on various hands of VP at various times. For example, if you haven't hit a lot of quads and the casino next door pays double for quad 7s on Wednesday, go play there, but only if the basic game is halfway decent. An alternative is to find a game that has a nice, fat progressive for quads or a straight flush or some other hand like that and go for it. Yes, games with progressive Royals are great, but I doubt you'll hit one in 9000 hands of play, so I'm leaving them out of the equation. Knowing about these bonuses and progressive takes some advance planning, so do as much of that as you can before you leave home and then check out what's available in your casino of choice as soon as you arrive. As you get near the end of your trip, don't forget to cash in any slot club rebates.

7. There are no guarantees here, but I have turned losing trips into winners by doing what I outlined above. I have also lost doing this. But if you're a casual player, the concept of "the long term" doesn't have a lot of meaning for you and I understand that. However, if you play good games properly, you'll likely do better than taking a shot at some game that can eat you alive in a very short period of time. Most of all, try to have fun.

I'll see you here next time.