GameMasters Secret's Page
The GameMaster's Secrets
Product Review: Organized Sports Betting

I have never bet sports, primarily because I think the "house" has too big an edge (4.5% or more), but I never really thought about that edge very much. For example, nobody can argue that a single-zero Roulette wheel has a 2.70% edge over the player on every spin (assuming it's honest, of course). Spin after spin, the odds will chip away at your bankroll and, in spite of what some shysters will tell you, the day will come when your $$$ are gone. Every spin in Roulette is an isolated event offering negative expectation. That's easy to understand, so I don't play Roulette.

Sports betting was like that for me, too. I thought the bookies had a built-in edge that applied on every bet, so I couldn't win. But then along came Jerry Bleiman, who wrote a book and created a software program called "Organized Sports Betting" ($39.95 from www.organizedsportsbetting.com) and he told me something I always knew, I suppose, but never really considered: bookmakers are human, too.

I realize that's not a stunning revelation, but it was some sort of epiphany for me. (I've always wanted to use the word "epiphany" in an article on gambling, so now I've done it.) It wasn't exactly a religious experience, but I could see the gates opening and hear the chorus of angel-type music as I read through Jerry's words. I came to understand that sports betting is really no different than when I sit down at a Blackjack table with a bunch of gamblers. They are hoping to win, but will probably lose and I'm there, prepared to win and probably will win. Why am I different than the average Blackjack player? Because I study, do my homework, practice and know that luck doesn't do the job, but counting and money management will.

Jerry figured that out a while back (on sports, not BJ) and he created this program to get, well, organized.

Here's what he said that had such an impact on me:

"The objective of the line or odds is to create random events, actually accelerating the losses for the player. Since most bettors indiscriminately choose which game they play, they unwittingly further randomize their results. Contrast the bookmaker who is very consistent, day after day. In fact, he doesn't know it all and is happy to admit it. He won't put some games up on the board and will take others off the board if some new information about a key player comes to his attention."

Substitute "coin flip" for "random events" in that paragraph and you'll understand a lot about successful sports betting. There are two teams, right? And it's in the best interests of the bookies that a series of games turn out 50-50, because the 'book' basically gets 4.5% of all the $$$ bet when that happens. We all know that team "A" is going to crush Team "B" seven or eight times out of 10, but the line or the odds make that more of a 50-50 proposition. The bookies make the lines and they see the flow of the bets, so they can move the line or just kill all further betting on the match, if they want.

But - and this is a big but - the bookies aren't always right. The average bettor like you and I aren't going to be more right than the bookies for an entire season, but every once in a while, we can catch them napping. Now, the big question: How are you going to do that? With "inside" information? Or maybe you're going to pay someone $25 bucks a pop for his "Lock of the Week".

I've got a better idea and this program is it. The package you get consists of a 55-page book, a CD-ROM plus access to a Website and, while it wasn't easy to get started, once I got into it, well, "epiphany". I installed the CD on my hard drive and then started clicking, with the book in my other hand. I got through it and you will too, I promise. If you're a serious sports bettor or even if you're just thinking about getting involved, you should get this program.

NFL Football, NHL Hockey, Major League Baseball and NBA Basketball are covered and the Website offers plenty of support, especially in terms of databases that are easily downloaded into the program. With that feature, you won't find yourself entering every score of every game, every day. It does, however, take some effort to stay on top of things, but the program simplifies it as much as possible.

Once the data is in, Jerry shows you, step-by-step, how to best use it but you may find an even better way. It's all up to you and honestly, that had me skeptical at first. I don't know anything about the Dallas Cowboys, so how can I rate them in the grand scheme of things? It's true that the analysis is ultimately your own, however, both you and the program will get smarter as the season goes on, so you could very well find yourself in the "wise guy" category come Superbowl time.

To load the program, you need Access 2000 (I had never heard of it, either but it was already in my machine) and MS Excel would be nice to have, although not absolutely necessary. Of course, this is a PC-based program.

Now, back to why I won't be betting football this year. Jerry very adroitly explains that the NFL season is just too short to develop reliable stats, so why bother? That's an interesting concept, especially when you consider the NBA and MLB seasons are so much longer and what you're trying to do is place winning bets, not just bet (right?) But, he goes on to say that opportunities still exist for the NFL bettor, if you have good information. Organized Sports Betting can help you get that good information.

Me? I can't wait for baseball to start next year. I'll be ready.