Internet Advantage Play: Blackjack

The GameMaster's Secrets:
Internet Advantage Play: Blackjack

Readers often ask me if all of the card-counting technique I teach here will work at online casinos and, for the most part, my answer is always "no." That's because the vast majority of Internet Blackjack games have the "dealer" shuffling the cards after every round of play. There are some exceptions, such as the multi-player BJ games at Intercasino where two decks (of eight) are dealt before the shuffle and Global Player casino , where 55-75% of the cards are used in their multi-deck games. Such shallow penetration makes these games very difficult to beat, so I don't even try, although they are good for practicing your counting skills in a somewhat realistic casino environment.

Where I make my $$$ at Blackjack is primarily at the single-table Blackjack tournaments offered at Global Player Casino , because the casino doesn't care who wins. They collect a fee ($1 per player; 5 players per table in the $15+$1 matches), which are run as "Sit & Go" (SnG) tournaments. The $75 collected from the five players forms a prize pool that offers the winner $50, with 2nd place earning $25; all the rest get nothing. While there are higher-level SnGs available, probably 95% or more of the action is to be found in the $16 version. Obviously one must develop some skill at BJ tournament play to do well at these, but it's not that difficult to master. On the Blackjack Page here, you'll find a 7-part series on Blackjack Tournament training, which covers mostly multi-table contests (something I'll discuss in a bit), plus if you just download the Global Player Casino software , you can watch actual SnGs that are being played, which will give you a lot of insight to what it takes to be successful at these games. In addition, I've got a secret to share.

I show a profit at these SnGs because I have a bit of an edge over most of my opponents. As I already mentioned, the casino has no interest whatsoever in who wins the match, so they deal out a minimum of 75% of the cards before shuffling the six decks that are used. My secret is that I count the cards, which, in and of itself does not give me a huge edge - I still have to play skillfully - but every little bit helps. Most of the writings you see about BJ tournament play, including my own, will tell you that card counting isn't all that helpful. That's primarily because you're not competing against the dealer - you're competing against the other players. However, if your opponents are as equally skilled as you, but you know the deck is highly plus or minus, you can make adjustments in your bet and/or the play of your hand, which might be enough to gain an edge.

That edge has paid off for me. In the 220 $16 SnGs I played in 2005, I finished first 70 times and second 61 times. The casino ran a promotion in September, 2005 where the $1 was not charged and I played 10 SnGs then, so my total entry fees for the 220 SnGs was $3510. My total winnings were 70 x $50 = $3500 + $25 x 61 = $1525, total $5025, which is a $1515 profit or an average of $6.88 per SnG. Since it takes about half an hour to play one, my results show an hourly rate of maybe $13 per hour. Not too impressive, until you consider the fact that this is being done on a bankroll that never exceeded $619 and was, most of the time, in the $300-$400 range. From a "return on investment" point of view, those are some nice numbers. As an aside, you may realize I keep accurate, detailed records of my play. I think that's absolutely essential for you to do, because you should never kid yourself on whether or not you have a profit from your play.

Back to the SnGs. "GM"...I hear you say, "...how can you count the cards when you don't have a way to measure the discards, which is needed to calculate a True Count?"

While the casino does do a graphic depiction of the discard rack filling up as cards are used, it's true that using the data offered is imprecise, at best. There are two solutions. The first is to use an "unbalanced" count like the KO or Red Seven count, for which you do not need to make a True Count conversion. Or, you can use my other secret, which is simplicity itself. What you'll find below is an Excel worksheet that I devised that tells me how many cards have been used in each round of play. A little-known fact of Blackjack is that each player will use 2.7 cards in each round of play. Because we must also include the dealer's cards in this, you can see that one hand with five players will use 2.7 x 6 = 16.2 cards or roughly a third of a deck. Over the play of 15 hands - the number played in the SnGs I'm talking about - it's actually amazing how accurate that 2.7 cards per player per round is, which implies that using averages is at least close enough. At the conclusion of the first hand, an average of 16.2 cards will have been used (Yes, I know you can't use 0.2 of a card in real life, but we can in this.) Anyway, if 16.2 cards have been used, that means 295.8 cards remain; divide that by 52, the number of cards in a full deck and we get 5.69 decks remaining to be played, which is the number by which we'll divide the running count in order to size our bet for Hand #2. So, if we end Hand #1 with a running count of, say, 6, then we can calculate that the True Count is about 1. Now understand, we may or may not use that information to size our bet, because what our opponents bet will have much more importance, but we certainly can use that information to play our hand.

Some Basic Strategy variations are more important than others - like 16 vs. a dealer's 10. If the running count is more than zero, we should stand and if it's less than zero, we should hit; what you do when the running count is exactly zero doesn't matter - hit or stand - the "expected value" is the same. Another very important Basic Strategy variation is the Insurance bet and that can make quite a difference in a tournament situation. There will be times when you take Insurance simply because one of your opponents does so - you're just matching their bet. But at other times, it might be the move that'll give you the lead. Whether to split or double can be determined by the count, if what you do doesn't really matter at that point of the match; or, you might want to make a different play because of what your opponents have done - at least by knowing the True Count, other options are open to you.

When you look at my True Count Conversion chart, keep in mind that the number of decks remaining should be used to calculate the True Count for the next hand. However, if you find yourself at "third base", it can be used during the current hand for calculations like Insurance because you don't have to make that decision until it's your turn to act. But most of the time you'll use it to figure the TC for the next hand, so the number 5.69 is really applied to the running count for hand # 2 if you're using Basic Strategy variations . Continuing along, if you're playing Hand # 11 and the running count is 16 when it's your turn to play, you should divide that by 2.88 - the TC conversion number for Hand # 10 - which means the TC is a bit over 5. Trying to be more precise than that is probably a waste of time.

BJ Tournament True Count Conversion Chart - 5 Players

Hand#

TC conv. #

5.69

5.38

5.07

4.75

4.44

4.13

3.82

3.51

3.20

2.88

2.57

2.26

1.95

1.64

1.33

Another tip I'll give you about using this chart is to basically drop counting entirely when you get to Hands 13, 14 and 15. At this point of the match, what you bet in relation to your opponents is much more important. After all, if you're $300 behind the leader and have to bet first, whether or not the count is positive means nothing; you have to get some $$$ out there, period. If you can keep the count all the way through, great. But if you can't, don't worry about it. Oh, and you may be wondering about what to do if a player or two gets knocked out before the last hand. You have to adjust the count because you'll no longer be using 16.2 cards per round. I'll let you do that on your own...can't give away all of my secrets.

Okay, just one more "hint" of a secret. In these matches, you get 30 seconds to act on placing your bet - if time runs out, a minimum bet (typically $10) is automatically placed for you - except for the last hand, where time isn't unlimited, but it's quite long. That's important because it allows you ample opportunity to calculate the ideal bet for your situation. In probably 80% of the matches I play, winning or losing is dependent upon what happens on the last hand. Understand you still have to win the hand (or your opponent still has to lose it, etc., etc.), but making the "perfect" bet can improve your chances quite a bit. Now, here's the hint: If my True Count Conversion chart was created on Excel, can you think of any other uses for that amazing program?

Before I leave this topic, I should mention that Global Player Casino also runs multi-table (MTT) Blackjack tournaments on Wednesdays (when this was being written in February, 2006) and, because it's still five players per table, they're a lot like the SnGs, although in later rounds of competition only one player advances, so second place is no good. But beyond that, pretty much all I've said here applies, except the $$$ are much bigger. With more players, your probability of winning is greatly reduced of course, but the payoff is much larger. I've placed "in the money" only twice in the 14 MTTs that I've played, but show a modest profit, nonetheless.

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, etc., email me at Aceten1@mindspring.comm

The GameMaster's Secrets:
Internet Advantage Play: Blackjack

BJ Tournament True Count Conversion Chart - 5 Players

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The GameMaster's Secrets: Internet Advantage Play: Blackjack