From The Felt Top
LUCK: WHEN PREPARATION MEETS OPPORTUNITY
for 5/3/04
Some players sit dumbfounded the entire time at a table game. The first time you make a big bet on Blackjack and the first card is a ten, the next card is also a ten, the dealer flops over a five and for the first time in a while you breathe easy. It's the largest bet you made all day and it's more out of frustration because you haven't been able to put together three wins in a row. You scan the table worrying about how the other players are going to play their hands. You pray that they don't make a mistake and try to relax knowing you have twenty and the dealer's probably going to bust anyway.
The first player is a girl, maybe 25 years old and she's always asking everyone how to play, so for the first time you jump in before anyone else gives her some bad information, remember just a tap of your finger and you're getting a card no matter what the other players tell you to do. A wave of your hand and your hand's over and if the next card is a four or five you can't get it back.
"Just stay, he's got a five, just stay." You look for reinforcement from the other players and get, "Yeah, he's right" from third base. The next two players have made hands also, so only the guy on third base is left with his pair of nines. He fumbles with his checks thinking whether he should split the nines or not. You think he should leave the cards alone. After all, he's hoping to get two tens on those nines and if he's right, he'll be taking the dealer's bust cards. But splitting the nines is the right move against a five and after all, he's not concerned about your bet anyway; to be sure, he doesn't care whether you win the hand or not, as long as he gets his pay. But when he puts up another fifty to cover the split you just have to say something: "No man, you want two tens and that's the dealer's bust card."
"Hey, shut up and let me play my hand, it's my hundred bucks, man."
And that shuts you up. He's right. Sure enough, the first card is a ten and the players, except the girl on first base, are all shifting in their chairs, rolling their eyes and expelling air from their big mouths. The next hand gets him an Ace and that gets him giving you a stare down with a shit-eating grin. The dealer flips the five over with a deuce, you slam the table saying "See, he would have made a 17" the next two cards gives him a 16 then the final slap in the face is the five that comes out last. The dealer bends over the layout, picking up everyone's checks and cards as the players leer at the guy with the split nines.
The fact of the matter is, had the girl on first base taken a card like she was going to, maybe the dealer would have busted. Maybe if the guy with the soft 18 had just doubled down, maybe the dealer would have busted. And maybe if everyone did talk the guy out of splitting the nines and everything else went right the dealer would have busted, but that's not what happened. You can't get your money back and nobody's going to feel sorry for you or is going to put up with your whining.
So the moral of the story is, if you think you can do better by yourself, then you should play alone. That means going out after midnight to the small casinos and taking quick shots as long as you can play alone. But the fact of the matter is if you were a good player you'd know that if everyone just takes it easy and plays as close as they can to text book play you'd all still have a slight disadvantage to the house simply because you have to make your play first. That's just the way it goes in every game, after all, this is the gaming BUSINESS. Just looking at the work BUSINESS says any business that doesn't show a profit is no longer called a business but an empty building. The unique thing about a casino is that they don't sell a product, they don't do Easter specials on yellow marshmallow eggs and they don't give away free candy canes at Christmas. All they do is feed you, get you drunk and try to take your money. Now what the hell kind of business is that? Well I hate to tell you but it's one of the most successful businesses in the history of mankind (I think the automobile is first) They make phony plastic chips they call money (try cashing their chips in ANYWHERE else) Hand the guy at the Arco a $5 Stardust chip in exchange for $5 worth of gas. Try sending your landlord a stack of black checks from Slots-A-Fun for rent. So if you're going to be successful in Las Vegas at gambling there's three words, practice, study, and lots of luck.
So what is luck? Like Einstein said, luck is the merging of preparation and opportunity; it usually doesn't last long since the two can hardly sustain each other for any length of time. So our problem is not seeing the opportunity or not being prepared when the time comes. You don't take a boat out on the water without a life vest and you don't gamble your money unless you're prepared to play the game. I can't tell you how much time I spend every day teaching each game, whether it's simple Blackjack or Pai Gow Poker, but when you run into something like Roulette it's even more difficult. However, no matter how the other games are played none of them affect the other players like Blackjack and thus the extra preparation.
After ten years I finally had the one player that listened. I suggested after an hour at the game where he couldn't win a fucking hand that he might want to practice a little first. I suggested two books he could buy at the Gamblers book store on Main St. (the most extensive gaming store I've ever seen). That was a month ago. Last week he returned, but this time he was ready. He had bought a computer casino game and in the Blackjack game it not only suggested how to play every hand correctly but there were little pop-ups that told him the rule why the hand is played the way it is and that was the ticket. He spent $18 on the program. When he bought in for $100 he asked if I remembered him, "Sure, how could I forget a face like that?" I said, but I really didn't remember him. He reminded me that I suggested he go home and practice and sure enough he practiced day and night for the last month. At the end of an hour, I was impressed, he played every hand exactly right without telling him once what to do and he was up around $40.
During the day we change tables and games so it wasn't until three hours later that I came back to the table and was stunned to see him with over $700. But now he was making some large bets, as much as $100 and doubling down when he needed to and, although his hands were shaking a bit, he was soon up to $1,100. He was toking me fairly well during play but when I left, he said: "I spent $18 on that program thanks to your advice" and threw me a black and pink $100 check for a toke. "Now I understand everything you were trying to tell me, especially about playing my own game and tuning everyone else out. For me the best thing to do is just go out late and I don't talk to anyone, that way they don't talk to me and I don't have to listen to them complain when they don't like the fact that I'm winning and they're not."
And this is where gaming is going. The better players who have been winning throughout the years aren't interested in mixing it up on a $2 game, they're not interested in making small talk, they don't want to hear about your latest gall bladder operation or your husband's hemorrhoids, and they don't care where you're from or where you're staying. All they want is to be left alone to play their game.
The best advice I can give is to watch these players. They know how to win, they set limits and stick strictly to them. If they're out to win $1,000, it might take a couple thousand to start but as soon as they hit the $1,000 profit mark, they're cashing out. Where most players make their mistake is precisely at this point; their time limits start when they show up and end when it's time to go home. In a typical weekend they start playing Friday night and stop playing sometime on Sunday when it's time to head home. The better players might start early Saturday morning like 2-3am. And will quit at the latest by 9-10am when everyone's waking up. Usually the early shift change to day shift usually marks the end of play for that day. They'll spend the daytime sleeping, then maybe dinner and then they might play the other games like Craps or Baccarat where no one can interfere with their play, but when it comes to Blackjack they won't even look for a table until the casino starts to empty out and once again they can take their own table, free to make their own destiny. The bad part is these are the players that can go from winners to losers, from rich to poor in minutes. They can take a pleasant evening and turn it into something out of the Twilight Zone.
But just like the Twilight Zone, just like the most modern cell phones, the most powerful computers in the world, the one thing they all have in common to protect us completely is one simple thing. It's called the "OFF SWITCH."
Ken Pearlman
©copyright, 2004
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