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Electronic Keno

Keno has been around a long time; almost all of the older casinos in Las Vegas have, or did have a Keno 'parlor', but some have been replaced by keno machines which is actually a better deal for the player. I'm not saying that keno is a good deal, but at least in the electronic versions, the casino doesn't have to pay for a number caller, keno runners and other personnel. Consequently, the electronic versions usually pay more money back than the 'live' games, but neither is a bargain.

Betting at Keno

Keno is essentially a lottery and most of you know what the odds are on a lottery -- astronomical is a word that fits. Keno does, however, pay more prizes than a lottery, so for the most part the return is a little more reasonable. Most electronic versions pay back about 90-92% of the $$$ put through them, but you can only know that for sure if you do some homework. I'll show you how to do that a bit later, but for the moment, let's discuss the betting options a player has in electronic keno. Most games allow you to pick from 3 to 10 numbers of the 80 and the payoffs depend upon how many of your numbers are 'hit' by the 20 which the machine randomly chooses. And believe me, 'random' is how it's done. With an edge as big as this games has, the casino has no need to 'rig' a game; they'll make plenty of money from a random selection. Anyway, you make a bet (usually 1-10 coins), pick some numbers, hit 'Play' and the machine 'draws' 20 numbers. If you hit a certain minimum amount or more, you win. For example, if you choose three numbers, you must hit at least two to win. Obviously, hitting 3 pays more, so it's a combination of the probability of hitting "X" numbers times the payoff on that number which determines the casino's edge on that bet.

Oh, No! The Math of It All

To continue our example, let's assume a game pays 2 coins (per coin bet) if you hit 2 of 3 and 46 coins if you hit 3 of 3. The math here is by no means simple, but the odds are pretty straightforward. The probability of hitting 2 numbers of any 3 (out of 80) which are chosen is, when 20 numbers are drawn, one in 7.25 which gives us a probability of 13.8%. If that 'hit' pays 2 coins, the return is 2 X 13.8% = 27.6%. The probability of hitting 3 of 3 is one in 71.5 or about 1.4%. If the game returns 46 to 1 for a 3 of 3 hit, the return there is 46 X 1.4% = 64.4%. Add the two together and we get 27.6% + 64.4% = 92% total return on a three-spot play. Not very impressive, is it? Yet, that's about what you can expect from most electronic keno games. It looks easy to pick 3 numbers out of 20 and, in fact, you can expect to hit either 2 or 3 numbers about once every six plays. With a probability of hitting 3 of 3 once every 71 hands or so, this is actually a better deal than most plays, because your bankroll may support the several hundred plays it might take to hit it, whereas a lot of the value of a 7-spot pay is in the 7 of 7 and the probability of that is one every 41,666 hands! Are you following me on this? Let me explain just a bit more.

If you play 7 spots, the return you can expect comes from hitting 3 or more of the numbers you've chosen. The total return for a 7-spot play is the combination of all the payoffs and that's figured by multiplying the probability of a 'hit' times the amount won. For example, a hit of 3 out of 7 will occur, on average, once every 5.68 plays, for a probability of 17.6%. Since it pays one coin for every coin played, 3 of 7 adds 17.6% to the total return. In contrast, 7 of 7 pays a lot more -- 7000 coins for each coin played -- but it will occur, on average, only once every 41,666 hands. If you multiply the probability of .0024% times 7000, you'll see that 7 of 7 contributes 16.8% to the total return of a 7-spot play. Since a 7-spot play has a total return of about 92%, until you hit a 7 of 7, you're getting a return of 92% minus 16.8% = 75.2%. Now I realize you could just as easily hit 7 of 7 on your first play, but it's not likely. So, there you sit, bucking a house edge of 25%, trying to hit "The Big One". And maybe that's the way to play keno -- go for the big hit. But, if you want to make your $$$ last longer, look to playing the 3-spot where the 'big' payoff is only 46 coins, but at least it will occur, on average, about once every 71.5 hands. This way, you can expect to get the entire 92% payback which a 3-spot play offers and you might have a session where you hit 3 of 3 once every 50 hands and walk away a winner!

The Realistic Return

Remember that a keno machine is actually 8 machines in one. When you play a 3-spot ticket, it'll return one percentage and when you play a 10-spot ticket, it will return a different percentage. That's about as far as most books on the topic take it. But what I'm proposing is that you consider the 'realistic' return on a play, in order to make your $$$ last longer. If nothing else, you'll have more fun and can suck down more free drinks. So, here is a chart of the payoffs I found recently on the Casino Queen in East St. Louis, IL. and my recommendations for how to play it. Compare this to your favorite game and you'll have a good handle on both the total return of any particular play and the 'realistic' return that play offers.

Keno Probabilities

**3-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
2	2	13.8%	27.6%
3	46	1.4%	64.4%
Hit Frequency 15.2%		Total Return 92.0%

Note: Probably the best play in order to conserve your bankroll. While a lot of the payback is concentrated in the 'big' payoff, it will occur, on average, once every 71.5 hands.

**4-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
2	1	21.3%	21.3%
3	12	4.3%	51.6%
4	64	0.3%	19.2%
Hit Frequency 26.0%		Total Return 92.1%

Note: If you want to combine the thrill of a sizable 'hit' with conservation of your bankroll, consider this play. The 4 of 4 will hit, on average, about once every 333 hands and one hand in four will produce some sort of winner.

**5-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
3	3	8.4%	25.2%
4	12	1.2%	14.4%
5	810	0.065%	52.2%
Hit Frequency 9.665%		Total Return 91.8%

Note: A play to avoid, primarily because over half the return is concentrated in the 5 of 5 payoff and that will happen, on average, only once every 1538 hands. Until you get that, you're playing at a realistic rate of return of only 39.6%.

**6-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
3	3	13.0%	39.0%
4	4	2.9%	11.6%
5	70	0.3%	21.0%
6	1600	0.013%	20.8%
Hit Frequency 16.21%		Total Return 92.4%

Note: While this play will produce some sort of winner every six hands on average and the total return is a bit higher than most, the realistic return is just 71.6%, because the 6 of 6 will hit only once in 7700 hands.

**7-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
3	1	17.6%	17.6%
4	2	5.2%	10.4%
5	21	0.9%	18.9%
6	400	0.070%	28.0%
7	7000	0.0024%	16.8%
Hit Frequency 23.77%		Total Return 91.7%

Note: If you observe people playing electronic keno, you'll see that most play 7 spots. I think the reason for that is the hit frequency, which is almost as high as a 4-spot play, but most of that is just 1 coin, which is a 'push'. While a 7000-coin jackpot is appealing, it will happen on average only once every 41,666 hands! Even the 400-coin payoff is rare; it has a 1 in 1428 chance. Until the 7000-coin payoff arrives, you're bucking a 25% house edge with this play.

**8-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
4	2	8.2%	16.4%
5	12	1.8%	21.6%
6	98	0.24%	23.5%
7	1652	0.016%	26.4%
8	10,000	0.00004%	4.4%
Hit Frequency 10.24%		Total Return 92.3%

Note: See the probability for 8 of 8? That number means 1 in 2.5 MILLION! At a rate of 1000 hands an hour, you'll need about a year of full time play to hit it. If you have the $$$ to finance that little adventure, you should just retire and stop trying to win a lousy 2500 bucks. Even the 1652-coin winner (how'd they pick a number like that?) takes an average of 6250 hands to hit. Thus, the 'realistic' return here is about 62%. This isn't a game, it's a vacuum cleaner.

**9-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
4	1	11.5%	11.5%
5	6	3.3%	19.8%
6	44	0.6%	26.4%
7	335	0.06%	18.9%
8	4700	0.0033%	15.5%
9	10,000	0.000007	0.7%
Hit Frequency 15.5%		Total Return 92.8%

Note If you are a 'high roller' at keno, this might be the play for you. It has a comparatively good total return, the 4700-coin payoff will show up about every 30,000 hands and the 'jackpot' contributes just 0.7%, which is good, because it will happen only once in 14,000,000 hands! Play a quarter at a time and you might last long enough to hit for some big $$$.

**10-Spot**
# of Hits	Payoff	Probability	Return
5	5	5.1%	25.5%
6	24	1.14%	27.3%
7	142	0.16%	22.7%
8	1000	0.014%	14.0%
9	4700	0.0006%	2.8%
10	10,000	0.00001%	0.1%
Hit Frequency 6.41%		Total Return 92.4%

Note: This is probably the second-most popular play (after the 7-Spot), mainly because it seems to give you the best shot for your money (The thought here is, "the more spots I play, the more I'll hit."). While you can see that a lot of the return is concentrated on the 'lower' end of the scale, remember that the 1000-coin payoff will occur, on average, only about once in every 7150 hands and the 4700-coin payoff will show up about once in 166,666 hands. Ouch! You can expect a 'realistic' return of about 75% on this play.

Some Final Thoughts

I'm trying not to brag, but I think this is the most complete examination of electronic keno which has been published. While it's a shame that the casino's edge is so large here, I've tried to avoid repeating the advice most authors give on keno: avoid it like the plague. Some of you are going to play it, regardless of what we 'experts' say, so please try to approach it from a 'realistic' point of view. First, search around for machines with better payoffs; I don't know if they exist or not, but you should at least take a look. Second, play just 1 coin at a time. That will give you longevity and, if the top payout is limited to $10,000, you're wasting money trying to win 10,000 to 1 by betting 10 coins when 4 will do the trick. One is even better. Also, join the casino slot club. Once you get going at a keno game, you can play 800-1000 hands an hour. Even at a quarter a pop, that's $200 or so in 'action' per hour and it might get you a lunch or dinner comp. Good luck!