The True Count

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The True Count

This is a tough concept to deal with from just reading so try to stay with me, but if you get confused, don't hesitate to e-mail.

Right now you're learning how to calculate the 'running' count, but hold on, Pilgrim, because you need to know more before you go hit the tables. The backbone of money management in Blackjack is what's called the 'true count' and you have to know how to figure it quickly and accurately if you want to play seriously. All of the calculations for bet size and for varying from basic strategy in the play of a hand are based upon the count per remaining deck, or true count. This is simply a mathematical adjustment you will make which converts the running count into a consistent form. For example, if you have a running count of 6 in the first hand after the shuffle in a two-deck game, you can see that it's more meaningful than if you have the same running count in the first hand after the shuffle in a six-deck game.

True count is simple: You divide the running count by the number of decks left to play. In the example above, there are 2 decks (about) and 6 decks (about) remaining. A running count of 6 with 2 decks left equals a true count of 3. In the 6-deck game, the true count is 6 divided by 6 = 1. So, you can see how we 'level' everything out. Got that concept?

Here, try one. With a running count of 5 and 3 decks remaining, the true count is .....?

Did you say 'about 1.5'? That's close enough; you didn't have to say 1.66 since that much accuracy isn't needed and it will only bend your brain. We estimate the remaining decks to within half-deck accuracy (quarter-deck if you're playing a single-deck game) and we round the true to a half. Best to do the conservatively; that is, round it in favor of the lower count.

Try another one. With a running count of 8 and 2 decks remaining, the true count is.....?

If you said 4, you're on your way to being a card-counter! See how easy this is? Or is it?

How does one estimate the number of remaining decks? Well, in most cases the casinos have discard trays where the used cards are placed. If you're at a 6-deck game and there's one deck in the tray, there must be 5 decks remaining. Now, of course, you won't see all 5 decks, because the dealer cut some off with a shuffle card and they'll never hit the table. But that doesn't matter; if a card is unseen, it's considered to be part of a 'remaining' deck. Now, how do you know there's just one deck in the discard tray? The answer is, you've got to 'calibrate' your eyes. Buy a bunch of decks of cards, preferably from your favorite casino (most sell used decks which have been 'canceled' with a hole punch. or some other similar disfiguration) and just start staring at them. Look at one deck long enough and you'll be able to 'pick' one deck off a pile of 4 or 5. Once you've gotten used to one deck, look at one and a half and practice 'picking' it off a pile of 6 decks. Got the idea?

You have to be accurate in estimating the number of decks in the discard tray AND you have to remember to subtract that from the total number used in the game in order to arrive at the number of remaining decks.

You have a lot to do until the next lesson; go get a bunch of decks and start 'calibrating' your eyeballs.

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