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Donating Money to the Casino of Your Choice

While I'm at a Blackjack table, I naturally watch how others play their hands, not because I'm worried that they'll "mess up" the table with poor play, but just to gauge the skill level the casino is used to seeing. That gives me an idea on what kind of "act' to use in camouflaging my play, since I don't want the pit personnel to know my skill level. While doing that, I notice that few players ever hit their 12 against a dealer's up card of 2 or 3 and fewer still ever hit their A-7 against a dealer's up card of 9, 10 or Ace. All of those plays are correct basic strategy and you should be making them if you hope to cut the house's edge down to the minimum.

But just what is the cost of not making those plays? Determining the cost of a mistake in Blackjack basic strategy requires us to figure the average bet a player is using and how often the situation will occur, over time. We also need to know what percentage of the bet is lost by playing the hand incorrectly. For example, if a player stands with A-7 against a dealer's Ace, s/he will lose 10.0% of all the money bet in that situation. So, if the average bet is $10, that player will "lose" $1 each time the situation comes up. Of course, s/he will either push, win $10 or lose $10 in that situation, but in the long term it will average out that the loss was $1 for each of those hands. This is what we call "expectation." Now, if the player hits A-7 and continues to play the hand according to the basic strategy rules, s/he will lose 9.5% of all the money bet in that situation or $.95 on a $10 bet. A gain of (Wow!) a nickel. That five cents is no big deal, but what if we got an A-7 against a dealer's Ace once every 3 hands? At a rate of 60 hands an hour, that nickel would add up to $1 an hour, so it would be costly. Fortunately , if you play Blackjack an average of four hours a week, you'll get that hand about 11 times a year so it's not very costly to stand with A-7 against a dealer's Ace; about $.55.

But there are some hands which, if misplayed, cost you a lot more. Standing with a 12 against a dealer's up card of 2 results in a loss of 29.3% of all the money bet in that situation. Once again, with an average bet of $10, it costs you $2.93 to stand. Ouch! The sad part is that hitting only reduces the loss to 25.3% or $2.53. Regardless of what you do, a 12 against a dealer's up card of 2 is a loser but since it happens fairly often, there's a lot to gain by hitting. In 200 hours of play (about 12,000 hands), you'll begin with 12 versus 2 about 75 times. By hitting, you reduce your loss by $.40 per hand, so that adds up to $30 a year. Do you really want to give your favorite casino $30 a year? Do you think they need an extra $30? If you're scared of busting or "taking the dealer's bust card'", you're giving the casino a gift each time you stand.

Using the same assumptions as those listed above, here are a few more ways you can make a donation to your favorite casino

The Wrong Play The Correct Play The Cost of Playing Wrong
Stand with 12 vs. 3 Hit $10.20 a year
Stand with A-7 vs. 9 Hit 9.28 a year
Hit 11 vs. 10 Double 99.00 a year
Stand A-7 vs. 3,4,5,6 Double 32.89 a year
Stand A-6 vs. 7 Hit 21.89 a year
Double 9 vs. 7 Hit 19.44 a year
Stand 16 vs. 7 Hit 37.00 a year
Stand 16 vs. 10 Hit 12.09 a year

(Yes, it actually costs you more to stand with 16 against a dealer's 7 than it does to stand against a 10. That's because the dealer has a better chance of making a good hand with a 7, if s/he is "stiff".)

I could go on and on with examples like this, but I'll make my point here: The difference between me and you is that I will double 11 against a dealer's 10 a dozen times and while I may lose all 12 times, on the thirteenth time, I'll double again. I have complete faith in the basic strategy and never vary, unless the card count tells me to do so. I don't play hunches and I don't believe that intuition has a place in the game of Blackjack. Consequently, while I'm a generous tipper, I never donate my money to the casino. You shouldn't either.

 

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