Letter to an Ex-counter

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Letter to an Ex-counter

It's a sad fact of life that most card counters become ex-counters because of their misunderstanding of risk, not because of a failure of the counting 'system' they've chosen. Yet, it's the system which will get the blame. Of course, it's easier to blame someone else for one's failure, but that doesn't really change anything. If you've given up on counting, it's probably because you haven't been winning. And you might not be winning because you don't completely understand the financial risks involved in the game, so you were undercapitalized when you began and the bogeyman -- variance -- got you. You can substitute the word 'luck' for variance, if you wish, but all us big time players don't believe in luck, so we call it something else.

But, that's what probably got you. You had a bad run or two of getting the high bets out there on skyrocketing counts and the dealer got all the 20s and you got all the stiffs. Hand after hand, you put your top bet out there and lost it. Of course, when you then put out your last $5 with the count still high, THAT'S when you got the Blackjack! What's a counter to do? You walk away shaking from the adrenalin that's coursing through your system and head for the car. Somewhere on the way home, you figure it's just not worth it anymore and swear to switch to video poker or sports betting or poker or anything else that doesn't grate you the way BJ does.

Wait! There's a very nice little computer program which will help you. If the scenario above hasn't happened to you yet, get this so it won't. If you're already an ex, get it to restore your faith in the game. What is this magic bullet? It's called "The Blackjack Risk Manager", it's by John Auston and it costs only $29.95 (plus $5 shipping from RGE, 414 Santa Clara Ave., Oakland, CA 94610) You can also order it on the 'Net at www.rge21.com.

BJ Risk Manager is, as Auston explains, a companion program to Don Schlesinger's book "Blackjack Attack" and some of the simulations which were performed for that have been incorporated in the program. This is a nifty tool for any card counter. It will do more to console you after a big loss than a pitcher of martinis and a visit from a lady of negotiable virtue. That's something which always bugged me after a bad session: just how bad was it? Was it bad or really, really bad? So, I'd sit down and run through the number of hands I'd played, my average bet, figure the standard deviation, square root this and calculate that and....well, you know the drill.

Auston does all this for you -- and a lot more. First, his program tells you whether or not the game you're considering is actually worth playing at all. It will then calculate your expected win rate and the standard deviation for that game and you can plug all that into a bankroll calculator. That section will then tell you how much you need to take on a trip where you'll play "X" hours, to insure that you'll come home with at least some money (if not a profit), or you can tell it how long you want to play and it will tell you how much money to take. Blackjack Risk Manager will also compute a total bankroll requirement for your favorite game. For example, if you can live with a 5% chance of 'ruin', BJRM will tell you the bankroll size needed. This is excellent for teams which have a tendecy, in my experience, to over-finance themselves.

But, for me, the best feature of BJRM is the ability to plug in the results of your play and it will tell you, on the basis of standard deviation, how your results compare. For example, if you lost "X" dollars in 16 hours of play, BJRM will tell you what the 'odds' of that happening were. This is also a good thing for teams, since it might detect skimming by unscrupulous players. Most of all, it will alert you if you are playing poorly. A few trips with bad results that should only occur once in a hundred trips is a signal that you're not playing with the edge you think you have. On the other hand, those great trips will be shown to be just as rare, and that will keep you from running around thinking you're the Greatest Blackjack Player in The World; it was just 'variance'.

Let me show you how I used the Blackjack Risk Manager to calculate a lot of information about the double-deck game we have here at a local casino. The rules are two decks, dealer hits A-6, DAS is allowed and doubling on any first two cards is permitted. Based on a 1-8 spread (reaching the max at a true of 5) with 75% penetration, the BJRM tells me that I should expect a return of 3.05 units per 100 hands of play. Assuming $25 units, if I intend to play 16 hours, want to win $2000 on the trip and take $4000 with me, my chance of being completely wiped out is 15.58%, the chance of hitting my goal at some point on the trip is 67.37% and my expectation is to win $1220. My actual results will, on two out of every three trips like that, fall somewhere between a loss of $2215 and a win of $4655. What if I win $8500? That will happen less than 5% of the time, so that's a very good (and rare) trip. As for total bankroll requirements for the game described above, BJRM tells me that I should have 579 units or $14475 if I can live with a 5% chance of the complete loss of the bankroll. Still too risky? A 2% chance of ruin requires $19,000.

All those calclations took seconds; it's just point, click and the little bugger spits out an answer. You don't even have to know what standard deviation is to get a lot out of this program; Auston explains everything very clearly.

You should invest 35 bucks and get this program, even if you're only thinking of playing BJ for serious $$$; it's a small investment which will return a lot of peace of mind.

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