In Pursuit of Basic Strategy

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In Pursuit of Basic Strategy

I have in front of me a handout from the Player's Island Casino which is located here in St. Louis. It's a free Blackjack basic strategy card which is printed on a simulated playing card and is freely given to players in the casino. Most of you probably know that for each two-card hand which you are dealt in Blackjack, there is one correct play depending upon the dealer's up card. The problem is that there are so many 'experts' out there telling you how to play your hand, it's difficult to determine which play is correct! Sure, all agree that you should stand with a hand of 17 or more, but what about some of the more common plays? For example, the card from Player's Island clearly states that if your hand totals 12 - 16, you should stand when the dealer shows a 2 - 6. They are wrong. Now, most players DO play it that way, but for the game at this casino (6 decks, double on any first two cards, double after split, late surrender, dealer hits A-6 -- all terms which will be explained in time), the proper play is to HIT 12 against a dealer's up card of 2 or 3.

Why? Who says so? Well, it's not me who says so; it's a thing called probability. Sure, you can easily hit your 12 with a 10 and bust, watch the dealer turn over a 10 in the hole and hit it with an 8. Then you (and everyone else at the table) will feel you played the hand incorrectly, because had you stood, you probably would have won. You 'took the dealer's break card', they will say. Well, I'm here to tell you and them that Blackjack is not a team sport. You should have hit that 12 and the next time you get the hand, you have to hit it again. The difference between me and most other players is that I'll bust 12 against a dealer's 2 ten times in a row and if I get the hand an eleventh time, I'll still hit it. Why? Probability.

If the dealer has a 2 showing and you have a 12 with $10 bet in a casino with the rules described above and you were to play that hand 1000 times in a row, you'd end up a net loser, regardless of how you played it. For a total of $10,000 bet ($10 X 1000), you'd lose $2900 if you stood every time and you'd lose $2520 if you hit every time.

From this example we can develop a percentage which we call 'expectation'. The expectation for a 12 against a dealer's 2 is -29% if we stand and it's -25.2% if we hit. In either case it will result in a loss, but you will lose less by hitting; it's that simple. No 'hunches', no 'feel for how the cards are running'. Expectation - only.

Now you know how the correct play for each possible hand is determined; by calculating the mathematical expectation. However, if you read a few books on Blackjack, you'll see differences in what each author claims is the 'correct' basic strategy. Some just put in what they 'feel' is the best play and they're usually wrong. Others have copied the strategy from another source and got certain key elements incorrect, like does the dealer stand on A-6 or is he required to hit it? That difference alone calls for several changes in basic strategy. If doubling is permitted after splitting pairs, there are quite a few changes in the pair-splitting strategy which must be made.

The first requirement for anyone who wants to win at Blackjack is to learn the PROPER basic strategy for their game. You must know which player options, such as double after split (DAS) are allowed in the casino where you'll be playing and work on learning that strategy. Thanks to the power of the internet, you can go the the "Black Jack Strategy Engine". and get the one that's right for you.

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