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Heads Up Blackjack Tournaments
Part 3

While I don't have enough time or space to cover every possible situation you might run into at the final hand of a heads up Blackjack tournament, I can give you some ideas that will help you as you gain experience in playing them. I'm specifically discussing one-on-one matches, but much of what we'll talk about here will also apply to "final table" situations you might encounter at any other Blackjack tournament, be it a single-table sit & go (SnG) or a multi-table tourney (MTT).

As a brief review, the Blackjack tournaments I'm discussing are those offered by our innovative friends at Global Player Casino, who have once again brought a new dimension to Internet Blackjack by developing "heads up" Blackjack tournaments. These are matches where you play against just one other person, winner take all. The match consists of 15 hands, each player starts with 1000 tournament chips and the player with the most chips after the last hand is played wins. Because the prize pool is created by the players, the casino has no interest in who wins - they take only a small fee for offering the game. There are, at the current time, three different "Sit & Go Duels", as they're called, available: $10, $20 and $50. In the case of the $10 duel, each player pays $10.50 to participate. The casino receives $1 and $20 goes to the winner. The $20 match has a $21 entry fee, with $2 going to the casino and $40 to the winner. For the $50 duel, the entry fee is $52, with $4 going to the casino and $100 to the winner. Let me add that these are very reasonable fees being charged by the casino, especially when you consider the fact that most Sit & Go poker tournaments have a 9 or 10% casino fee. Fees like that cut into your earnings, so the lower, the better and these are lower.

In Part 1 of this series, I gave you some general strategy tips to cover the various situations you'll find yourself in after the next-to-last hand has been played (hand # 14 in a "Sit & Go Duel", as they are currently configured):

You are in the lead and must bet first on the final hand.
You are in the lead and will bet last on the final hand.
You are trailing your opponent and must bet first on the final hand.
You are trailing your opponent and get to bet last on the final hand.
You are tied with your opponent and must bet first on the final hand.
You are tied with your opponent and get to bet last on the final hand.

My recommendations will not apply in every situation because a lot depends upon how savvy your opponent is, plus the cards you're dealt may completely ruin your strategy. By using my "Blackjack Tournament Calculator", which I wrote about in Part 2, we can easily see how our various bets will work out and from that choose a bet that will give us the best chance of winning the hand. By the way, if you have Excel on your hard drive and would like a full-functioning copy of this, just send an email to me and I'll ship it out asap. Please put "BJ Calculator" in the subject line and send it to Aceten1@mindspring.com/ Okay, let's get going here.

1. You are in the lead and must bet first on the final hand.

If you are in the lead and must bet first, the general rule is to bet your lead, minus one chip so if you both lose the hand, you win. For example, if you have T560 and your opponent has T530 (the "T" means tournament chips, as opposed to $$$), you would bet T30, which will leave you with T530 if you lose a single bet. Yes, T530 is your opponent's total, but remember that s/he must bet at least T5, so their total will still be less than yours after all the bets are placed. If your opponent wants to bet enough to win the match if you both win the hand, then s/he must bet at least T65, which is the total of the amount s/he's behind, plus your bet and one extra chip. Plugging those numbers into my calculator, we can see that you win with a total of 530 if you both lose the hand, but your opponent wins with a total of 595 to your 590 if you both win the hand. However, your opponent's bet of T65 does not cover you receiving a 'blackjack' or "natural" as we call it. Should that happen, the calculator shows you'll have a total of 605 and your opponent will have a total of 595 if s/he just wins one bet. Because you are playing first in this situation, your opponent will obviously know that you received a natural, which will force him or her to double in an effort to catch up. Should s/he double for the full amount - T65 - and win, the calculator shows an ending total of 660 versus your 605.

Alternatively, your opponent might want to bet T80, which will give him or her an ending total of T610 if s/he wins just one bet, thus "covering" you receiving a natural. There's no reason for your opponent to not bet T80, because if you both lose the hand, you win regardless and if you lose and your opponent wins, it doesn't matter there, either. So, to continue with our example, let's say you bet T30, your opponent bets T80 and you do not get a natural, which is the most likely situation. If your opponent has a good hand, say a 19 or 20 and the dealer is showing something like a 7, you're in danger of losing the match because it looks like s/he will win the hand. This basically forces you to get more chips on the table, which you can do by doubling or splitting pairs. Remember, a hand composed of two face cards (10 through King) can be split, thus allowing you to get at least one more bet on the table. And, of course, any hand can be doubled, including a natural, although it's not much fun doubling a 19. If you do bet an additional T30 and go on to win both bets, your total will be T620 versus your opponent's T610, if s/he does not double also.

And that's an important point: sometimes you can force your opponent into making a play s/he would rather not make by how you play your hand. If, in this example, you have a two-card total of 11 versus a dealer's 7, the double is a no-brainer. If you have a 10,6 versus the dealer's 7, a double looks like a stupid move, but it isn't. What might be "stupid" in a cash game may well be a very smart move in a tournament, especially if it's your only hope of winning. But let's say you double and don't bust; now your opponent has a decision to make, which is primarily dependent upon your hand's total. If you doubled an 11 and caught an Ace for a total of 12, the only way you can win the hand is if the dealer busts, which is a 26% probability in a game where the dealer has an up card of 7 and must stand on soft 17. So, should your opponent also double that 19? Obviously not because the probability of receiving a card higher than Ace or 2 is 11/13 or 85%, which far outweighs the 26% probability of a dealer bust. If your opponent has a 20 that is composed of two face cards, it's more of a dilemma. By splitting, your opponent can get more chips on the table and regardless of what cards s/he gets, cannot bust those hands. Of course, s/he may get 2s on both of them and have a pair of 12s versus a dealer's 7, but if the dealer busts, it won't matter. Your doubled total will be T620 and your opponent's doubled total will be T690. Again, it all depends on who gets which cards, what the dealer's showing and so forth. But by running various scenarios like this through my Blackjack calculator, you can get a pretty good feel for what might be the best play. (The emphasis is on "might".)

2. You are in the lead and will bet last on the final hand.

The next scenario, where you are in the lead and bet last, is one we all wish for and it's usually pretty easy to play. The general strategy rule is to match your opponent's bet so you win if you both win the hand and you win if you both lose the hand. I'm going to stick with the T560 total for you and T530 for your opponent, but now you get to bet last. Your opponent is hoping for a "swing"; that is, you lose the hand and s/he wins which is about a 12% probability so you're in pretty good shape to win the tournament. Is there anything your opponent can do to increase his or her chances, besides praying for a natural? Let's say s/he makes a maximum bet of 500 and you match it. A natural will give him or her a total of T1280 and you'll have a total of 1060 if you win just one bet. As I mentioned earlier, the probability of any player getting a natural is only about 5%, so you're still an overwhelming favorite before the cards are dealt if you both make maximum bets.

But what if your opponent bets only half of his or her stack - in this case T265 - and you match it? Now, your opponent can win if s/he receives a natural and you do not, but s/he can now beat your single-bet win by doubling (or splitting) and winning two bets. If s/he bets T265, then doubles for the full amount and wins the hand, his or her total will be T1060 and if you just win one bet, your total will be T825. Even if you get a natural, your total will be only T957.50 and you'd still lose. So, by betting just half of his or her stack, which indicates a willingness to double or split with any hand, your opponent is looking to force you into making a bet other than just a match of his or hers. That doesn't necessarily mean you won't match his or her bet - the choice is up to you - but if you alter your bet so you're still ahead if you win one bet and s/he wins a doubled bet, you have covered one more possible play by your opponent. So, just calculate how many chips your opponent can end with if his or her entire bankroll is doubled and then bet enough so that a single-bet win by you still keeps you in the lead, which in this case is T505. Oops! What if the maximum bet is T500? If the bet limit does not allow you to put out enough chips to cover your opponent's double by winning a single bet, then you're basically forced to match his or her bet, then double or split if your opponent doubles or splits. But, because you get to act last you'll know your opponent's outcome, which might mean you won't have to do anything, if s/he busted while doubling a 19, for example.

So, which is it...match your opponent's bet or bet more to still win with a single bet versus your opponent's doubled bet? I'm slightly more in favor of matching my opponent's bet because by doing so, my natural beats my opponent's natural (admittedly a low probability event) and s/he really has no choice but to double, while I may not have to. Although my surrender would leave me in the lead if s/he surrenders, that's not likely to happen, so I'm not counting on that option. Of course, if my opponent doubles and ends with a hand that s/he can win only if the dealer busts, I might surrender if the dealer is showing a 7 or higher and my own hand is a "stiff." But I like having the option to split or double if my opponent does it, so the vast majority of the time, I'll just match his or her bet in this situation because if we both lose our doubled hands, I still win the tournament. Again, all of this can be worked out automatically by my Blackjack tournament calculator - just plug in the bets and read the results.

3. You are trailing your opponent and must bet first on the final hand.

Now let's turn our attention to a case where you're the low stack and must bet first. This is, of course, the same situation we just discussed, except now you're in the opponent's seat, so to speak. Given the same chip totals, T560 for my opponent and T530 for me, I feel the best play is to bet half my bankroll with the idea of doubling or splitting, regardless of the hand I get. If my opponent - the chip leader - matches my bet, I win if I get a natural and s/he doesn't and can win if my double works and his or her double doesn't work. Of course my opponent may or may not match my bet, but I have no control over that.

4. You are trailing your opponent and get to bet last on the final hand.

If you're the low chip stack but get to bet last, what you'll bet is typically determined by what your opponent bets. Again, let's say your opponent has T560 and you have T530. If your opponent bets T30, which leaves him or her T530, it's what we call "taking the low". If you both lose the hand, you cannot win because you must bet something, so your total can be no more than T525, depending upon the size of the minimum bet. If, like in example # 1, your opponent does indeed bet T30, then you should bet enough to cover him or her receiving a natural, which we already know is T80. You need to win the hand to win the tournament, plain and simple.

If your opponent bets more than T30, thus giving up the low, immediately do the calculations for what will be left should s/he surrender because I smell a trap - the surrender trap. As an example, let's say your opponent bets T100, which leaves him or her T460 and you take the low by betting T65, which will leave you with T465. If your opponent surrenders, s/he will have T510, but if you surrender also, your total will be only T497.50, so your opponent is basically forcing you to play out your hand. Of course, if s/he surrenders and you win the hand, you also win the tournament, but that may not happen. Consequently, if your opponent bets T100, you can bet only T30 if you want to take the low and win if you both surrender or both lose the hand. But, by doing that, you still lose if you both win the hand and you cannot cover if s/he gets a natural. It's the old "you pays yer money and you takes yer choice." Unfortunately, when you're trailing in the chip count, your options are limited.

A play I like to make in this situation is to bet half of my stack if my opponent makes a maximum bet, assuming my chip count allows it. Let's say my opponent has the same T560 and bets T500. If I have T530, I'll bet T265, which obviously gives me the low and the higher surrender total. Should my opponent get a natural, I'm toast but if s/he doesn't, I can still split or double and get my total bankroll on the table and might pull out a win if the dealer busts. It's a long shot, but I like the flexibility such a bet gives me. It'll all come down to the cards we both get but I've won more than one tournament by doing this.

5. You are tied with your opponent and must bet first on the final hand.

This situation will most likely come down to the winner being the person who gets the best cards. Because you can take the low only by betting the minimum (and your opponent can match your bet), I think it's time to bet the maximum. By doing so, your opponent must bet less than the maximum if s/he wants the low and that accomplishes several things. First of all, you win the tournament if you both win a single bet, plus you win if you get a natural, even if s/he gets one as well. The downside is that you lose the tournament if you both lose the hand and your opponent will win if s/he doubles with his or her remaining chips. For example, let's say you both have T560 and you must bet first. You put out a maximum bet of T500, which leaves you with T60. Now, let's say your opponent bets T495, which leaves him or her T65. If you both win one bet, your total will be T1060 versus your opponent's total of T1055. Consequently, if it looks like you're going to win with, say, a 20 against the dealer's up card of 6, your opponent has to give doubling some serious consideration. That's not to say your hand is necessarily an automatic winner, but that's how your opponent is going to think, so s/he will likely double. If that double is for T65 and it works, your opponent will have a total of T1120 and your total will be T1060 because you didn't double.

There might come a time when you'll want to double in a "pre-emptive" fashion, because you're 99% sure your opponent's going to double. For example, if we use the same numbers - you both have T560, you bet T500 and your opponent bets T495 - and you're dealt A-8, your opponent receives 6-5 and the dealer's up card is 6, it's reasonable to assume your opponent is going to double. Because you must play first, I would double for T60, which will leave me in a tie if my opponent also doubles and the dealer busts. The alternative is to stand, watch your opponent double then pray the dealer makes a hand, which is a 58% probability when showing a 6. Of course, that hand has to also beat your opponent's hand (it's okay if it beats yours also because you still have T60 remaining and your opponent has 0), but if your opponent caught a 10 and now has 21, that may not happen. I use the pre-emptive double when my opponent has a hand of 10 or 11 and the dealer shows a 3 through 7 as the up card. Beyond that, I'm willing to stand if I have soft 18 or higher and I'll take my chances with an opponent's double.

6. You are tied with your opponent and get to bet last on the final hand.

The proper, mathematical play is to bet one chip less than your opponent because the odds favor both of you losing the hand, which will make you the winner of the tournament. That said, I prefer to match my opponent's bet so I can play my hand the same way s/he plays his or her hand. Because I get to play last, I'll have a good idea of what I need to do. Of course if my opponent gets a natural and I don't, it's over. But if my opponent splits or doubles, I might be able to do the same thing and battle to a tie. A tie isn't a win, but a tie at least gets me a playoff hand and, being the eternal optimist I am, I could win that. To me, this is better than having to automatically double if my opponent makes a good hand. Plus, if my opponent does not surrender, it might still be an option for me and that could win me the match. If my opponent does surrender, I can follow suit and we'll have a tie. Any savvy opponent knows that, so s/he might take a chance by hitting, say, a 13 against a dealer's 6 in an effort to make a hand of 17 or higher, especially if I also have a bustable hand. Again, it all depends upon who has what cards.

Okay, I need to wrap this up. Hopefully you understand that each final hand situation is different, so what I've presented here are just some typical examples that may or may not work for you. My best advice is to get a copy of my Blackjack tournament calculator - or make up your own - then plug in various numbers to see how they might work for you. Experience is a great teacher and by using the calculator you can play literally hundreds of final hand situations in the course of an evening.

Next time I'll talk about the Insurance option in final hand play against one opponent. See you then.