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Evaluating Games: Part 2


Let's say your local, friendly casino has a decent 6-deck Blackjack game where double after split is allowed and one day you walk in to play and find that the option is no longer allowed. Nown we know that DAS is worth .14% to the player, so by eliminating it, the house will make more $$$. At least they'll make more from those who don't count cards, because the counter can pretty well overcome the change and that's what I want to show you here.

In a previous Blackjack lesson, I wrote a review on an excellent software program called "Blackjack Risk Manager" ("Letter to an Ex-counter") and I want to use that to show you how to make more $$$ at the game, or at least maintain your edge in the event of a rules change. Our discussion here may also help you to choose between competing games in your area (is a 6-deck game EVER better than a single-deck game?); I'll show you.

First, let's look at a 6-deck game where the dealer stands on A-6, you may double on any first two cards, double after split is allowed and penetration is 75% (4.5 of 6 decks are dealt.) The Blackjack Risk Manager (BJRM) says that a counter can gain an average edge of 1.06% at that game by utilizing a 1-12 bet spread. If the DAS rule is removed, the counter's edge drops to .84%, all other things remaining the same. To make up that .22% drop in average advantage, you can increases the bet spread, but that presents several problems. The first is whether or not your bankroll can support the higher bets. In the first game (where DAS is allowed), a bankroll of $4500 or so is required to operate with a 10% chance of 'gambler's ruin'. If you go to a 1-14 spread to counteract the loss of DAS, your bankroll will need to support a top bet of $70 a hand, so it should be $5000 or so. The other consideration is whether or not the playing conditions at the casino will allow a bet spread of $5-70 to go unnoticed. By playing two hands, you should be able to pull it off, but playing 2 hands at a $5 table is an iffy proposition in most areas, due to crowded tables. So, what's a shark to do? My recommendation is to use a technique we call 'back-counting' or 'Wonging'. This works well in those situations where the tables are crowded since that allows you to stand behind the table and get into the game only when the count is in your favor. You then play until the count drops to a negative number, then get up and walk away. According to BJRM, when using a 1-8 spread in back counting, the game which does not have the DAS has a long term return of 1.24%. So, we've cut the risk (because the top bet is only 8 units) and yet we're making more, on a percentage basis, than we did in the original game. The fly in the ointment here is that, while the long term return is higher, you'll be playing fewer hands, since a lot of time is spent behind the table rather than at the table. And that isn't a viable technique if you don't live near the casinos. But look at it this way: if you have to travel to get to a casino, start traveling to areas which offer better games.

Now, is there ever a time when a 6-deck game is better than a single-deck game? The answer is a qualified "Yes". It all depends upon the rules of the game, penetration and how big a bet spread can be achieved. There are a lot of single-deck games in the Reno/Tahoe area, but their rules leave a lot to be desired and they damn well know the games are beatable, so it's difficult to spread more than 1-4. The BJRM says that the edge on a single-deck game where the dealer hits A-6, double is allowed on 10 and 11 only and penetration is 50% is .85% for a 1-4 spread. A 6-deck game where the dealer stands on A-6, double on any first two cards and DAS returns 1.06% with a 1-12 spread, a considerable improvement. But that comes at a much higher risk, since the top bet is much bigger, so 'you pays yer money and you takes yer choice'.

The lesson here? Evaluate the games you're playing. If you're a counter, you can ultimately get the $$$, but unless your long term edge is at least 1%, you may be wasting your time.

See you here next time.

  

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