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Camouflage Betting

The single biggest way for savvy casino game supervisors (lovingly referred to as "pit critters" or PCs) to identify a card counter is by the counter's betting pattern. It's no secret that we counters bet less when the casino has an edge and more - perhaps even much more - when we have the edge, so an ascending and descending pattern of bets might indicate that the player is counting the cards. Of course, it could also be that the player is using some sort of "progression" betting system, which many non-counting players do. A savvy PC will also know that progression bettors cannot win in the long run, so they don't want to confuse a progression player with a counter and throw the wrong one out, if it's the casino's policy to ask counters to leave.

That being the case, it's in the best interest of the counter to look as much like a "gambler" as possible; be it a gambler that uses some sort of progression betting system or another betting method. So, to devise a strategy for ourselves, we first have to examine how gamblers bet, then adopt as many of their traits as possible. In my Blackjack School, I address this situation in Lesson 12, which is Casino Playing Tactics. Most of what's in there is directed towards how you should look, act and play when you're counting the cards and a lot of it has to do with looking, acting and playing like a typical gambler. Take a quick run through it when you get a chance.

One of my key points in Lesson 12 is this: Counters never think about how to play a hand properly; they know Basic Strategy perfectly so there's no hesitation. However, they do often have to think about how much to bet because it takes a certain amount of time to calculate the proper amount. On the other hand, gamblers often ponder whether or not to hit their hand ("Gee, will I take the dealer's bust card?") but they seldom ponder how much to bet - they just put some amount out there. In other words, counters are precise in all of their actions and gamblers are not. Doesn't it then follow that counters should appear to be at least less than precise in their play if they want to look like a gambler? But the success of counting comes from being precise, because that's what gives us an edge. Start making Basic Strategy mistakes on a regular basis and that's going to cost you something. Fail to size your bets properly and that's going to cost you something, too. Does this mean the concept of looking like a gambler while playing Blackjack as a counter is doomed to failure? Well, if it were, do you think I'd be writing this?

I recently saw a terrific program about Leonardo da Vinci on the Discovery Channel (or one of its clones - I forget which) and an interesting point about his many ideas was that Leonardo wrote down darn near every thought he had. He also drew many sketches of machines and other devices that he thought might work; a parachute, a flying machine, a forerunner to the military tank and so forth. What was interesting is that Leonardo often made rather simplistic mistakes in his drawings, which could lead one to believe that Leonardo was either a dummy (I don't think so!) or that those mistakes were in there to confuse those who might steal his ideas, because apparently back then there was no patent system. Interesting idea. I bring that up because I'm no dummy either. While I'm certainly not on the level of a Leonardo da Vinci (although I bet I could beat him at Blackjack, at least for a while), I do know that some casino personnel read my humble offerings here, so you can't do what I'm going to show you step-by-step. What I really want to do is give you some ideas that you can build on. Counting at Blackjack should not only embrace the basics - the proper playing strategy, sound money management and so forth, but it should also have some of "you" in it. Your style, your look, your table image and other things like that have to be a part of it, too.

Let's quickly review a basic premise of card counting: We bet more as the count is rising because little (2-6) cards are coming out of the decks. This essentially means we anticipate that big cards will ultimately come out and we all know that's good for us. Of course, as those little cards are coming out, we may be getting hands like 6,5 that we double on, then get a 4 as our hit card and the dealer pulls out a five-card 21 to beat us! Frustrating, but very common. However, you want to increase your bets in order to be ready when the count starts dropping. A count goes down because big (10s and Aces) cards are now showing up and ideally, we'll have a big bet out when that happens. But there's no law that says big cards must be preceded by little cards. The big cards may come out right after the dealer shuffles, which will lead us into a shoe that goes negative and stays that way for a long time, perhaps even to the next shuffle. My advice has always been to get up from the table at that point and look for a different game. That's good advice and I still stand by it. However, if you're playing at your local friendly casino that doesn't offer a lot of opportunities for moving to another table (it's a small place or it's very crowded, for example), then you can work on reverse-betting the shoe.

What I mean by that is to raise your bet as the count is dropping and lower it as the count is rising! Sounds dumb, doesn't it? Well, it's not dumb, if you understand the ramifications of such play. If the count is dropping, we've already established it's because big cards are coming out - cards like 10s and Aces - that we know are good for us. As that's happening, we're increasing our bets and that, too, is good. The fly in the ointment, so to speak, is that we have no way of knowing when the count will reverse, so we could be making a big bet just when every 2 in the shoe decides to come out. Okay, we might lose that hand, but now the count will have reversed at least somewhat, so we start cutting back on our bet size because the count is rising. Because most shoe games are "streaky" insofar as the count is concerned, the trend of a rising count might continue, so we'll keep dropping our bet size if it does. Here's the key to this play, though, and not everyone can pull it off. At some point, you'll have to take advantage of a high count by making a large bet and it will likely be a pretty big jump over the preceding bet, like 15 to 1 or more.

But even that's not really all that difficult to pull off if you've been reverse-betting the count. First of all, if reverse-betting is your style, it's very unlikely you'll be branded as a counter. That being the case, haven't we all seen gamblers who "take a shot" now and then, in an effort to make back their losses with just one or two big bets? The fact that you happen to take your shot when the count's high appears to be just a coincidence, rather than the act of a counter - and, because high counts are rare, anyway - an observer won't see you do it very often, so it's very hard for them to determine if you're a counter or just another crazy gambler.

You can create even more confusion in the PCs' minds by creative bet sizing. What I mean by that is how many chip permutations a 1-12 bet spread has. We naturally think of it as $5-$60 if one is playing with "red" chips, but it's also a 1-4 chip spread; one $5 chip (obviously worth $5) or two $25 and two $5 chips (four chips worth $60). Along with the reverse betting, the manipulation of your chips can help to reinforce your gambler image. You might bet one $5 chip at times, one $25 chip at other times, two $5 chips or one $5 and one $25 together and so forth. Even though you may put up no more than four chips at any time, you can easily get a 1-16 be spread from your $5 and $25 chips, with a top bet being three $25 chips and one $5 chip. Obviously, you could go to four $25 chips and have a 1-20 bet spread, but a $100 bet oftentimes generates too much attention. The dealer may be required to call out "checks play" or something like that, plus they'll want to pay you off in $100 chips ("one hundred black out"), so I don't recommend it as a general rule. But, if your image of a wild-ass gambler can handle that, do it.

The downside to this method of betting is that it'll increase your bankroll swings ("variance") quite a bit. Should you lose those few top bets, you could find yourself in a fairly deep hole from a $$$ point of view, at least for a little while. This, then, raises the minimum bankroll I recommend for a $5-$60 spread, which is $3000, up to something more like $5000. But it's a better alternative than being tossed out, because if you can't play, it doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is - you can't use it to get the casino's $$$. And, it'll take a certain amount of practice, not to mention a whole lot of self-discipline to do this successfully. It'll be really easy to "get a hunch and bet a bunch" when playing this way and, to be frank, very few players can resist the temptation. But, if you practice a lot, it'll eventually sink in that you have to be highly disciplined to pull this off. How should you practice this? Glad you asked. What I recommend is that you open a play-money account at an Internet casino where the cards aren't shuffled after every hand of play, which will allow you to count the cards and bet pretty much as you like.

Very few Internet casinos offer that possibility, but it just so happens that Global Player Casino, which has been a long-time advertiser here, does. All of their multi-deck games deal a number of hands before shuffling and opening a play-money account there requires no $$$ and no obligation on your part. Go there (please click on one of their ad banners here to do so; it helps to keep this site free for your use), download their software and then play as a "Guest." The play-money games are exactly the same as their real-money games, so you'll get a good look at how reverse-betting might work for you. Practice, refine your technique, then practice some more. You'll soon discover what Leonardo da Vinci didn't know: There are a lot of ways to win at Blackjack.

I'll see you here next time.

  

2007 Articles