Back to The Blackjack Page

The Blackjack Page Archive
Beating Tough Games: Part 3

Beating Tough Games - Part 1
Beating Tough Games - Part 2
Beating Tough Games - Part 4

The subtitle of this is, "Why You Lose at Blackjack" and what I'll cover applies to both newbies and pros alike. Of course, losing is a part of Blackjack that none of us can avoid, no matter how favorable the rules, how deep the penetration and how good our skills are. But we also cause a lot of losses ourselves, so that's what I want to discuss here. In most cases what I'll talk about here applies to both real and cyber-casinos but I'll be careful to point out the differences when they appear.

First and foremost, you have to remember that if you're not an "advantage player", you're supposed to lose at Blackjack. Yes, there are a few games out there on the Internet where the player who uses only Basic Strategy can get an edge over the casino but, for the most part, the casinos have a built-in edge over you that cannot be overcome in the long run. So, don't be surprised when you lose. Readers ask me about various betting "schemes" and progressions all the time and I answer them in basically the same way: No method of betting can help you gain a long-term advantage at Blackjack if it isn't combined with some sort of advantage-play technique like shuffle tracking, card counting, etc. In fact, all a progression does is to raise the size of your average bet which hastens your demise, even though you might enjoy some nice wins along the way. But in the long run, betting schemes and progressions don't work. Period.

But even card counters can lose. In fact, there are probably more ways for a counter to lose than a non-counter but that is offset, of course, by the fact that the counter has the opportunity to overcome the casino's edge (rules permitting), given enough time and enough $$$. Yet, if that's true, why are Blackjack games still available in almost every casino in the world? I can honestly say that the tools available to the prospective counter of today are far more powerful (and easier to use) than anything we had back when I first got involved with the game, so you'd think by now that the game would be gone. Actually, what has disappeared are the good games - not all of them, mind you, but most - and that has kept the "sport" alive. And it has also contributed to the reasons why many counters still lose: They are playing marginal games. Most counters lose because they're playing a game where the long-term advantage is below 1%. Sure, if you hang in long enough, you'll eventually make some $$$, but it's not a lot of fun and winning at Blackjack should be fun.

When you are using a counting system and a specific bet spread, each hand played has a value that can be figured in dollars and cents. For example, if the bet spread works out in such a way that the counter's average bet is, say, $25 and the average edge this counter has is 1.2%, then each hand that counter plays has an expected value of 1.2% X $25 = $.30. That's right, 30 cents. Therefore, if our counter plays 300 hands, s/he expects to make $90 for the session. Unfortunately, the casino won't pay this counter 30 cents for each hand but will, instead, pay him or her in $25 increments. And those $25 increments can really add up (or down!) in a session.

So, let's say that our counter plays 300 hands and wins $500. The expectation was to win just $90, but the Blackjack gods were smiling this day. I love it when the Blackjack gods smile on me. I call it "being in a state of grace". (Isn't that sick? But I have always called it that whenever I walked into a casino and killed them by getting a 9 whenever I hit a 12, having all my insurance bets and doubles work, etc. Those are special moments to a fanatic like me and the closest I will ever get to "grace".) But, it can and does happen, so now our counter is $410 ahead of expectation. Do you think that the Blackjack gods (Expectation and Variance are their names) will smile like this tomorrow? Perhaps. And maybe even the day after that, too. But mark my words, ye of too-much faith: The gods will have their way, and one fine day our counter will fall from grace and get beat up at the tables (figuratively speaking, of course). The counter will cry, "Woe is me" and the gods will laugh. It's at that point where many players get selective amnesia. They will forget their ascent to grace and cry, "I was cheated", especially if they are playing at an Internet casino. And the gods will laugh again. (Heavens - no pun intended - it sounds like I'm trying to steal "Bishop" Arnold Snyder's act. I won't do that.)

My point is this: It's The Big Picture that matters. A fall from grace is nearly as swift as the ride up, so when your 20 is beat by a five-card 21, it helps to remember when you did that to them. Any player, but especially a non-counter, will have huge streaks of losses so it's necessary to keep accurate records. Try to estimate the number of hands you have played and multiply that by your average bet. That total is your "action" and don't be surprised if you lose 15% of that amount in one bad session of 300 hands or so. As an example, let's say you play 300 hands and your average bet is $10. Your bets total $3000, so a bad day may find you dropping $450. Believe me when I tell you that, from a mathematical point of view, it's a realistic result when playing at an honest game. So, one very big reason why you lose is due to the god, Variance. Others just call her "Lady Luck", so maybe she's a goddess.

Get into the habit of keeping accurate playing records so that you can look at all your play, not just today's. If your expectation is to win 30 cents per hand and you're winning at a rate of 50 cents per hand, don't expect it to last. The gods will get even with you at some point and it'll happen when least expected and, of course, when least welcomed. I guarantee that many of you advantage players have run away from good games simply because of the vagaries of Variance and that's not how you make the big $$$ in this business. By knowing that a fall is coming, you can deal with it a lot easier and not spend your time trying to figure out if they're screwing you.

To hang in there takes a properly-formulated bankroll, but you must remember that if you're not playing with an advantage, no bankroll will ever be big enough. Sure, you can win every now and then, but not long-term, so don't expect it to happen. The god Expectation says that you are doomed to lose an average of about 0.5% of your $$$, which translates out to 2.5 cents per hand for a player with a $5 average bet. While he may toy with you for a while, he will have his way. So, when you go bonus hunting and get a free $25 for your $100 deposit, don't be surprised if you lose it all after just 400 hands (about two hours' play at most online casinos). Expectation will have his say, but Variance will stick her nose in there as well.

On the other side of the coin, an advantage player may expect to make, say, 5 cents per hand. By the way, to figure your average bet for a 6-deck game, a good rule of thumb is to multiply your minimum bet by 7, add to that your top bet and divide by 8. So, if you are using a 1-12 spread, the average will be about 2.33 units. A lot of variables affect this, however. If you're really aggressive and get your top bet out at a True Count of +2, the average will be higher. And, if the game offers deep penetration, that, too, will make it higher. The opposite of both these conditions will lower your average bet size. Back to our example. If you're winning at a rate of 20 cents per hand, but your expectation is just 5 cents per hand, don't be surprised when you get clobbered. I recently got creamed in 1500 hands of play (about 8 hours at the table) at a 'real' casino and lost 100 average bets, but that came after a winning "streak" that had found me ahead by 150 average bets from about 4 hours of play. The loss was no fun whatsoever, but it happens and it worked out to be a gain over the entire 12 hours of play, so it's full-speed ahead and damn the torpedos.

Another factor many of you don't consider is the speed at which you're playing. If you play at a real casino, head-to-head with the dealer, you'll get a lot more hands per hour and that affects the perception of what's happening, although it doesn't affect your actual results. In a nutshell, if you play more hands per hour, whatever is going to happen to you will obviously happen a lot quicker. That's nice on the good days, but not a lot of fun on the bad days. I think speed contributes quite a bit to the perception of many online casino patrons who think they've been cheated. Speed is good if you have an edge. But if you don't, speed kills bankrolls. Want your $$$ to last longer? Either get an edge or play slowly. But, admittedly, playing quickly isn't really a factor in why you lose, unless you're making errors.

There are two types of errors that you must consider. The first and most obvious is misplaying a hand. Hey, we all make mistakes and sometimes we make them on purpose. Why on purpose? So that you'll look like the average "gambler" when the PCs ("pit critters") come around. Hitting A-7 against a dealer's 9 is a "savvy" move and, while it may be worthwhile to not hit it in order to keep the welcome mat out, it comes at a cost. Not a big cost, to be sure, but a cost nonetheless. The other type of mistake is the betting mistake. If the count calls for an 8-unit bet, you need to get that bet out there. I know the problems associated with bet spreads, but none of those apply when playing online, so "ya gotta chunk", as we used to say. If you're afraid to bet big when the count calls for it, you're either underfinanced or you think the casino is cheating. If that's the case, you shouldn't be playing there in the first place.

When I play, I figure I already have time and $$$ invested in the effort, so I don't invest any emotion on top of them. To me, if my spread indicates that I'll average 30 cents per hand, I view each hand played as being 30 cents in my pocket. Sure, the dealer may pull a five-card 21 to my 20, but that hand is still worth 30 cents to me and is not worth getting upset over. Maybe I'll collect my 30 cents today, or maybe not until next week, but I will collect it. I have often said that the only difference between me and most other players is that I'll double if that's the proper play, even though I lost the 10 previous doubles I made. By not doubling, or by cutting back on my bets, I no longer have the expectation of making 30 cents per hand and that basically amounts to me beating myself. Emotion can cause you to lose, so lose the emotion.

It's human nature (read: emotion) to cut back on your playing time when you're losing, but somewhere along the way, I learned to treat those times differently. When I'm in a losing streak, I play as much as I can, as long as I'm not making mistakes. I believe that my expectation is "building up" during those losing streaks and I want to play through it in order to collect my $$$. I must confess that I do have a tendency to slack off on my play when I'm running ahead of expectation, because I know that I "owe" money and am reluctant to give it back. But learning to "play through it" (whatever "it" may be) is a good attitude to have and will help you to overcome the emotional aspects of this business.

So, to recap this rather rambling dissertation. let me say several things: If you don't have an edge, expect to lose. I'm sorry that it has to be that way, but it is. Secondly, if you have an advantage, calculate what each hand you play is worth and then don't expect to make more than that in the long run. Expectation and Variance are two very tough "Blackjack gods", so don't try to beat them. Just accept what they offer and you'll have more fun.

See you here next time.