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Basic Strategy Variations

You will make most of your money at Blackjack by varying your bets according to the count; betting little or none when the casino has the edge and betting more when you have the edge. But knowing the true count can also help you by prompting you to play certain hands differently. For example, hitting a 16 against a dealer's 10 is a coin toss; you'll lose just as much by standing as you will by hitting. But, if you know there's an excess of 10s in the deck, you'll lose less if you stand, rather than hit. That's also true for a 12 against a dealer's 3. While proper basic strategy says to hit, if you know there's a higher proportion of 10s left in the shoe, there' s a point where you're better off standing. Using the true count to vary the play of your hand requires a lot more memorization on your part, so you may not want to do it. That's okay, because even the best player will gain only about .1 or .2% from this. But, if you're playing for high stakes, that small increase can be significant.

The best thing for the majority of you is to learn the most important variations and then add to them as you get more into it. I'll try to list them in some sort of order of importance, so you can just learn them from the top.

A very important note on the decision numbers: You will notice that a few of my numbers do not match those of other authors such as Stanford Wong, et al. That's because I use the numbers of Joel Friedman who wrote a paper back in 1981 about 'risk-averse' play. What Friedman basically said was that some plays carry more risk than they are worth if you are betting optimally. A good one in particular is doubling a hand of 10 against a dealer's 10. Most authors would have you do it at a true count of 4. Friedman says it's never worth the risk, if you're betting 2% of your bankroll; a number which roughly corresponds with a true count of 4. His reasoning is that the indexes for this and other plays are figured without taking risk into consideration. In other words, the play was calculated with zero risk aversity (is that a word?). This may not be the best explanation, but let me say that I've used these indexes since 1981 and I find that they reduce the swings in my bank roll, without significantly reducing my profit. So, I guess what I'm saying is that they work for me, but if you want to learn different numbers, go for it.

By the way, all the indexes I'm giving here are for a six-deck game where the dealer stands on A-6, and double after splitting is permitted, as is doubling on any first two cards.

The most important basic strategy variation you can make is insurance bets. When the true count is at 3 or more (in a 6-deck game; it varies according to the number of decks), take insurance regardless of what your hand is. Since insurance is a side bet, it doesn't matter what your cards are. I will say, however, that if the 'pit critters' are watching me, I sometimes don't insure a hand of 12 through 16, unless I can camouflage my move with "Oh, she's due. Bet I win this one!" Or, "Damn, you've had a blackjack every time; I better start insuring." Or some other BS like that. Don't feel bad about insuring your own Blackjack and taking even money; it's good camouflage and it costs you very little, especially if the count is positive.

The other important variations:

Stand on 16 vs. 10 if the count is above 0. Yes, even if the running count is at 1, stand. Hit when it's negative and do whichever you want when it's exactly 0.

Stand on 15 vs. 10 if the true is 4 or more.

Stand on 12 vs. 2 if the true is 3 or more.

Stand on 12 vs. 3 if the true is 2 or more.

Hit 12 vs. 4 if the true is below 0. (This drives other players at the table bonkers, which is good, because maybe they'll get up and walk away, thus getting you more hands per hour.)

Hit 10 vs. 9 if the true is lower than minus 2. (Instead of doubling.)

Double 9 vs. 7 if the true is 6 or higher.

Double 8 vs. 6 if the true is 3 or higher.

Double 8 vs. 5 if the true is 6 or higher.

Double 11 vs. A if the true is 1 or higher.

These are the most important, but if you have any specific questions, please e-mail me.

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