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A 1 to 16 Bet Spread

In my Blackjack lessons that have appeared here for many years, I recommend a betting schedule that varies from 1 unit to a top bet of 12 units, or $5 to $60 if you play $5 units, which looks like this: At a True Count (TC) of 1 or less, bet $5; at TC 2, bet $10; at TC 3, bet $20; at TC 4, bet $40; at TC 5, bet $50; at TC 6 or higher, bet $60. In a six-deck game with five decks dealt out before the shuffle and where the dealer stands on soft 17 (double on any first two cards and after splitting pairs), the player who never leaves, regardless of how low the count goes, will have an overall advantage of just under 1% (0.955% to be exact). Because I always have recommended you play only with a 1% or larger edge, this is a marginal situation at best. Of course, I also recommend that you leave the table whenever the count drops below TC -1 ("wonging-out"), so the bet schedule shown above can easily produce a bigger edge if you'll do that - more in the 1.20% area.

But many casinos now have the dealer hitting soft 17 (which we call an "H17" game), so a 1-12 bet spread is no longer practical from a profitability point of view. As a result, not only will you have to use a bigger spread when playing H17 "shoe" games, you'll also have to be much more aggressive about leaving the table when the count drops. However, if you'll do that, a second benefit accrues: There's less opportunity for the casino supervisory personnel (our beloved "pit critters") to observe your play. Certainly, if you're playing in a relatively small casino, changing tables frequently will draw a certain amount of attention in itself. Whether or not you can pull this off in your local, friendly casino is something only you can decide. But if you were to find yourself in Vegas, I can show you exactly where and how to play with a 1 to 16 spread.

If you're currently playing a H17 game with a 1-12 bet spread, you're probably losing because your overall edge in a H17 game (6-decks, double any first two cards, double after splitting pairs, no surrender) with 4.5 of six decks dealt before the shuffle is a miserly 0.58%. I determined this through a simulation of over 2,000,000 shoes of play, so it's a fairly accurate representation. If you leave when the TC drops to -2 or lower, the overall advantage is a more respectable 1.03%, but let's see if we can move our edge up to the 1.25% area.

The good news is that we can get a 1.25% overall advantage in a six-deck, H17 game. The bad news is that it's not easy. First of all, we have to find a game where Late Surrender is available, otherwise the casino's edge "off the top" is over 0.50%. Games with Late Surrender are plentiful on the Vegas Strip, so I'm going to recommend the following bet schedule, if the game you play offers it as well: Bet $5 at TC 0 or lower; bet $10 at TC 1; $20 at TC 2; $40 at 3 and $80 at TC 4 or higher. You must also leave the table when the count drops to TC -2 or lower; but do so only after losing a hand - "gamblers" never leave after winning a hand. Also, if it's almost time for a shuffle (say in one or two more hands), go ahead and stay, but be sure to bet the minimum. That tactic won't cost very much in absolute $$$, but it will cut down on your traveling time somewhat.

In a typical Vegas "Strip" game (6-decks, H17, Da2, Das, Late Surrender) with 75% penetration - better pen. can be found - your overall edge will be 1.25%, if and only if you leave when the count drops to -2 or lower. With such an aggressive bet schedule, you'll want to stay on the move. Should you play through all counts, the overall edge is only 1.03%, which is barely okay for comps, but your 1-16 bet spread is going to attract some attention and, because you need to put in some serious playing time to be eligible for comps, it's a tough way to go. My recommendation is to play aggressively - screw the comps - and spend no more than one hour per shift (each Vegas Strip casino runs three shifts) in each casino. The good news is that there are over one hundred games like this available in the South Strip area - down by MGM, Monte Carlo, Mandalay Bay, Luxor, etc., although many have a $10 minimum bet. (A note here. If you must play $10 tables, you'll obviously be betting $10 when the count is below TC 1. If you're aggressive about wonging out and leave at TC -1, that reduces your overall edge to 1.05%, in spite of the fact you're basically using a 1-8 bet spread. You can pump that up to about 1.30% by finding games where 5 of 6 decks - 83.33% penetration - are used before the shuffle.) I know of several "semi-pros" that supplement the income from their regular jobs (mostly as bartenders in Strip hotels) by playing 6-deck shoe games and they tell me it's very rare to draw any heat whatsoever by using a hit-and-run technique, while spacing out their visits to each casino by more than a week.

I should also mention that the simulations I ran for this article assume you use the Basic Strategy Variations from my lessons, with the following modifications for a H17 game: Double A-8 vs. 6 at a count of 0 or higher; double 11 vs. Ace at 0 or higher and stand with A-7 vs. Ace at TC 1 or higher. By the way, my information regarding the Vegas Strip casinos was accurate when this was written in February, 2006. If you're planning to go to Vegas - or any other major casino market, for that matter - you should invest in a copy of "Current Blackjack News", which is published monthly by Stanford Wong. A single issue costs about $13 and is well worth the price. More information is available at Stanford's Website, www.bj21.com/

I'll see you here next time.

  

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