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The GameMaster Advisor
for October of 1999

GameMaster,
What do I look for when selecting the best pay back on a deuces wild machine?

I listed the most common payouts for popular Deuces games in one of my "Video Poker Bible" chapters. You can find it in the Story Archive section of the site and it's called "Pick a Game, Part 2". The standard 'full-pay' version of Deuces Wild is what we call '15,9,5' which means that the five-of-a-kind pays 75 for 5, the straight flush pays 45 for 5 and the four-of-a-kind pays 25 for 5. That game, which is seldom found outside Nevada, returns 100.7% for perfect play. The key to most Deuces games is the pay on a 4K and the pay for 4 Deuces. If the 4K is cut to 20 for 5, it usually takes a big increase in the 4 deuces payout to make up for the loss. I wrote another article about that, which you can also find in the Archives and it's called "Field Evaluations, Part 2: Deuces Wild Games". Deuces Wild payouts can be confusing, so what I do is write down the pay schedule of any new game I find and then calculate the long term return on my analysis software before I consider playing it. If you have a game you'd like to know more about, e-mail me the pay schedule and I'll let you know how it stacks up.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/25/99


GameMaster,
First off let me tell you a little about myself. I am a 55 year old male who has played craps for thirty years. There is not a system that I don't know. Give me the system and I'll tell you your percent of expected loss would be over 360 decisions. At the casinos there is much talk about me. Most of the talk concerns the amount of discipline and patience that I have. I have been asked many times, don't you ever lose? The answere to that is of course. Having said all that, I was approached by a group of floor people and ask to evaluate the honesty of on line casinos. I gambled 4 hours a day at three different casinos and there is no doubt in my mind and I mean no doubt that the results can be controlled. I have seen many strange things happen in a real casino but nothing compared to what I saw on line playing for real. Are all on line casinos rigged, I don't know, but I would say most are. I think you are doing your readers a grave injustice if you lead them into believing they are getting a fair shake. Thanks, try it sometime playing for real it won't take you long to get the message.
Tom

Dear Tom,

Thanks for writing. First of all, there's no place in my writings about or reviews of on-line casinos where I state that players are getting a 'fair shake'. I have very carefully avoided that, because I don't know for a fact if any of them are honest. That said, I believe most are honest, because (especially at craps) they have a built-in edge which no one can overcome for very long, so why do they have to cheat? I appreciate your experience at the game, but an analysis of the honesty of a casino game has to be done on a mathematically-sound basis for the results to be valid. I value 'gut feelings', but using a series of 360 rolls is a much-too-small sample to use as evidence that a game is 'rigged'. Probability and the standard deviation thereof plays an important part in all this and it takes samples consisting of thousands of hands to get reliable statistics. For example, a craps player may expect to see an 11 once every 18 rolls, so it should show up 20 times in a 360-roll series. What would your reaction be if an 11 showed up only 8 times? Would you consider that a rigged game? I'll save you the math; it's possible for that to happen in an honest game - but if it were to happen in a large percentage of 360-roll 'trials', then one would have good evidence of a less-than-honest game. However, to be conclusive about this, it would take more like 360,000 rolls.

Now, I'm not trying to defend any cheaters out there and I'm not trying to razzle-dazzle you with a bunch of obscure arithmetic. Time may prove you correct, but the only certain answer to this is mathematical analysis and, in my reviews, that's how I judge honesty at a casino. I have yet to see anything that is outside the realm of probability, though admittedly, my sample sizes are small, also.

As for playing at an on-line casino for 'real', it's illegal to do so in the state where I reside, so all I can do is offer the limited reviews I do and equip my readers with the knowledge they need to determine for themselves if an operation's legitimate. Perhaps some day I'll be able to do more, but until then, I agree with you: "Let the player beware".

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/24/99


Dear GM:
Do you know where I might be able to get a complete set of Lawrence Revere's blackjack strategies with all variations?

It seems his book, "Playing Blackjack As a Business", falls far short of providing these. Instead, the book gives only a smattering for single deck, no DAS. You are then asked for additional monies for each count strategy you want. (@$25. and $200. for the Advanced Point Count)

I ordered the Advanced Plus-Minus, only to find that it had no variations for DAS. When I called Mrs. Revere, his daughter-in-law in Vegas, she pointed out that there was another charge of $25.00 for that and $25. for each of another 2 variations. And it takes forever for delivery. I really don't want to play this game, so I'm asking you here if I can get the complete set, or perhaps a superior set of count strategies.

I would also be very interested in knowing your recommendations for online blackjack games with which counting strategies would be useful.
Best Regards,
Aaron

Dear Aaron,
I'm not aware of any books with that information.

You need to make just one more purchase and you'll have everything you need for a lifetime of Blackjack. What I'm referring to is the "Blackjack Statistical Analyzer" (SBA) by Karel Janecek. The advanced version, which costs $159, will generate strategy indices for virtually any counting system and for any playing option. True, it's not cheap, but it has a bunch of other features which makes it a good investment. It's available from our favorite online retailer, Conjelco, at www.conjelco.com/.

As for online casinos where card-counting is effective, the best penetration I've seen to date is only about 33%. Counting helps here, of course, but it will only get you to about break even or slightly less. Check out the games at Acropolis and Global-Player. Be sure to read my reviews on them first, though. You can get to the reviews from our front page.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/21/99


GameMaster,
Let me just say that your site is incredible. The content is revealing and insightful, and the writing is superb--a rarity these days. 'Nuff said...:)

No, no....say more!! Seriously though, thanks.

My question is probably a common one: how do counting systems work in the electronic world of blackjack? It would just be nice to play at home away from the eyes of suspecting pit bosses and without the time factor. Do internet casino sites even use a finite number of decks? It appears that they simply keep going through an endless pile of cards.

For the most part, the on-line casinos use a finite number of decks, but they shuffle after every hand. However, as you'll see in some of my reviews, there are casinos which deal out a portion of the shoe and card counting is somewhat effective. I say "somewhat", because they don't deal too deeply into the deck(s) so, just as the count gets interesting, they shuffle. But this is a very competitive market and I predict that you'll soon see more casinos which deal deeper and show the point at which the shuffle occurs.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/9/99


GameMaster,
Would it would be safe to say that, currently, on-line casinos hold the long-term advantage because users are forced to depend more on basic strategy? Do you discourage profit-seeking people from gambling on-line?
dj

Dear DJ,
It depends upon your options. If you count cards and are able to get to 'real' casinos with good games, then that's the way to go. But, if you do not count cards, then the casino's edge, be it 'real' or virtual is approximately the same; in fact, some on-line casinos have lower house advantages than many brick-and-mortar operations. I try to discourage players from participating in any game with a built-in house edge, cyber or otherwise, but if one enjoys playing and does not have access to beatable games, then you have to make a decision. All the real casinos are visited everyday by players who know that the house has an advantage over them; just look at all the slot players, craps and roulette players, etc. Yet, they still go, because they set some sort of limit and treat their losses as a cost of entertainment. I think that applies to Internet casinos as well. The advantage of an honest Internet casino is that the player isn't also paying for transportation, meals, hotel rooms, etc. which all add to the 'entertainment' cost. So, if it takes $500 to get to and stay at a 'real' casino where you win $100 at Blackjack, how is it different if you stay home and play at an Internet casino where you lose $400? The net monetary result is the same. Of course, by staying at home, you may get asked to cut the grass or do some other chores you can blow off by heading out of town. But to directly answer your questions: Yes, I think it's safe to say that most, if not all, Internet casinos have a long-term edge over the player in Blackjack and if one is seeking a profit, it cannot be gained at a game where the house has an edge.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/9/99


GameMaster,
After reading the article below, what software do you recommend?
Thanks
David

"When I'm playing Video Poker on the 'Net, I have my VP software open so if I get a hand that I'm not absolutely certain about how to play, I just check it out, then I play the hand. This ability mostly applies to Video Poker, Blackjack and Pai-Gow Poker, though there might be other games out there for which this option applies."

Hi, David.
I use "Bob Dancer presents WinPoker" software for Video Poker, Stanford Wong's book "Optimal Strategy for Pai Gow Poker" and Wong's book "Professional Blackjack", all of which are available from www.conjelco.com and others.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/5/99


GameMaster,
What is best : (on 9/6 jacks) Playing 5 quarters on a machine or playing one dollar on a dollar machine; Playing 2 dollars on a dollar machine versus playing one 10 dollar coin on a 10 dollar machine. Your thoughts also on the subject of playing higher denomination video poker but not full coin.
THANK YOU.

The only problem with playing less than the maximum coins is that the payoff on the Royal Flush usually isn't proportional. For example, at most games with one coin in, the Royal pays only 250 coins, but it should be 800 to keep the payback the same. That being the case, I cannot recommend playing less than the max.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/5/99


Dear Gamemaster,
I love to play craps and I have been fairly successful taking pass line and come bets with full odds. On a recent trip to the Grand Casino Gulfport in Mississippi I was offered a "high-low" bet by the dealers with a large payoff. The come-on sounded too rosy so I declined figuring it was an exotic bet with terrible odds. Can you give me the true odds on this bet and how it works?
John

Hi, John.
I have to assume the dealer was talking about what is also called the 'horn' bet which is a one-roll bet on 2,3,11 &12 The payoff is 15 to 1 on the 3 & 11 and 30 to 1 on the 2 & 12. This usually takes a $4 bet and you lose the other 3 if one hits, so the house edge is 16.67% He should at least hold a gun on you when recommending that bet. You're playing the best way, though you might want to see my article "Press the Odds" in the "GameMaster's Secrets" section.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/3/99


Gamemaster,
So you're saying you have better odds playing Blackjack with one deck as opposed to two or more decks? This would make it easier to count cards right? And don't you want to play with less people-this would make it easier to count cards too.
Perry

Dear Perry,
While what you say is essentially correct, there are several advantages that single-deck has over two or more. First, depending upon the rules, a single-deck game may give the casino a smaller edge over the basic strategy player and, depending upon how deeply they deal into the deck, a single-deck game usually gives the counter more opportunities to get the 'top' bet out, since the count is much more volatile. It may actually be more difficult to count accurately at a single-deck game, because the conversion to true count involves decimals; if you have 3/4 of a deck left and the running count is 6, you need to divide that by .75 to get the true count. Some people come up with 8 a lot faster than others.

As for the number of people at the table, having less may make counting easier, but proper training can help a counter be equally as effective at a full table as an empty one.. The primary reason why counters like to play 'head-to-head' is that the play proceeds more quickly, so the number of hands per hour goes up. For the skillful counter, the more hands you play, the more $$$ you win.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/3/99


Hi Gamemaster,
Just wanted to say thanks for the fine article on St. Louis gambling. We just moved to the Springfield, MO area and have a hard time finding out what's going on or what future casino plans are. I'm glad to hear they're not having to offer incentives to keep people interested. Hopefully things will continue to grow.
Thanks again.
Greg

Hi, Greg.
Thanks for the note; it's always good to hear that we've been able to help. Keep checking back, because we have a lot planned for that section. We'll keep you up to date on the new casinos.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/1/99


GameMaster -
Can practicing VP be detrimental? Certainly it's important to practice, lest we forget some of those obscure plays, and to make sure we're keeping the right ones at other times, but isn't there a possibility that this can affect your actual winnings?

For example, while practicing you get a Royal. Since it doesn't matter what machine you play on (a "real" one or your computer), won't that skew the odds against you if you'll be making a trip to a casino in the near future?

(Of course, *in theory* this can also work for you: if you've had a lousy run while practicing, it *should* skew things in your favor when you hit the casino.)

And, yes, I do understand that all of these things are based on random numbers and statistics, and it's entirely possible to get two royals back-to-back (although highly unlikely). But it does seem to me that practice-mode and real play are, statistically speaking, linked in the grand scheme of things.
Thanx,
George

Hi, George.
I agree with you up to a point. I think it's all 'linked', but you need to remember that by practicing at home, you're playing more hands, so you're 'qualifying' yourself for more Royals. At that point, the random factor takes over and whether you'll hit the Royal at home or in the casino is in the hands of the VP gods. Just so you know, I've personally hit 3 Royals in less than 5000 hands of play, all on 'real' machines and I've hit one at home while practicing, then hit one two hours later at the casino.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
10/1/99