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FRONT PAGE - Back to THE ADVISOR PAGE Dear GameMaster - You stress repeatedly (and rightly so) that the gains on VP machines are
long-term, depend on perfect play, and that one must have a sufficient
bankroll to achieve the promised rewards. But I am a very casual gambler, at
best. My gambling (with the exception of a few minor excursions into online
gambling) is done in a single annual 3-day visit to Las Vegas. At best I can
only average about 400 hands per hour; my top is actually a little better
than 500, but I am unable to maintain my concentration for an entire hour,
probably more like 20-30 min, after which I need to take a break. So even if
I'm at the machine for 12 hours per day, that's only 4800 hands/day X 3 days
= a little more than 14000 hands in a typical stay. This obviously decreases
the likelihood of getting a Royal in any one visit. So, to my questions: (1) Is there some way the casual gambler can increase the chances of getting
that Royal? In other words, do the casinos make available information like
how many hands have been played on a particular machine since the last
Royal? If so, it seems to me that by playing a machine that hasn't hit for
the past 35000 hands or so, one would stand a better chance of getting a
Royal (statistically speaking, of course--I realize that it still wouldn't
be a sure thing). Thus a smaller bankroll could be used (I can only afford
between $500-1000 per visit). You can increase the chances of getting a royal by drawing to all two- and
three-card royals which are dealt to you, but it's at a cost of the
near-term returns like two-pair, etc. You have to remember that the
statistics here don't know you're on your only trip of the year and your
results aren't wiped out when you leave town. You will, on average, see a
Royal every 40,000 hands, if you play proper basic strategy. You can cut
that to maybe 28,000 hands but it isn't worth it if you're going to continue
to play in the future. The long-term odds *will* have their way. As for the concept of whether or not a machine hit a Royal recently is
immaterial; those little devices don't know they hit a Royal, they only know
they dealt one of a billion sequences of cards. We were the ones who
recognized it as a Royal. (Sure, the lights, etc, go off when one hits, but
these are random devices). What matters is what you see and the only thing
we can say with certainty is that, after 4,000,000 hands or so, you'll
average a Royal every 40,000 hands. I've hit 3 Royals within 2000 hands of
play and I've gone 186,000 hands without one. (2) What constitutes "perfect play"? Everyone is going to make mistakes, but
what is an acceptable error rate that will still yield an acceptable return? It depends upon the game. Less-than-perfect play at a game with a long term
return of 100.7% is more forgiving than similar play at a game with a long
term return of 99.5%. On the Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker program, you can
check your accuracy at a particuler game and I think 99.75% (on the 'total
return' side) is easily attainable with 30-40 hours of practice.
(3) I usually stay at the Imperial Palace (I take my Aunt, and it's her
favorite hotel). In one of your answers, you indicated that the Imperial was
a casino to avoid for VP. Why? Am I wasting my time by playing there? Would
I be better off going next door to play at Harrah's? I'm not sure why I said that, but it's probably because they don't have good
VP games. Check Skip Hughes' site (www.vid-poker.com) for an up-to-date
listing of 'full-pay' games.
And one final, unrelated, note. You obviously have no use for slot machines,
and after reading what you have to say about them versus video poker (or
even blackjack) I can certainly understand that. But I want to share a
nearly incredible experience I had at the Argosy Riverboat Casino in
Indiana. I went there with $200, and came home with $1500, most of it from 5
or 6 different slot machines! All but one were dollar machines, some 2-coin,
some 3-coin; the exception was a 2-coin 5-dollar machine. I hit for $200,
$160 *twice* on the same machine, $240 on another. Then I got brave and
decided to try the $5 machine, at which I hit for $500. The last machine I
played was kind enough to give me $320. There were a few other small hits
along the way, including a 4 of a kind and a full house, practically
back-to-back, on a dollar VP machine, to round out my day of winning. I
certainly do believe your 92% payout on the slots (I've left enough in Las
Vegas in years past to testify to that), but if one is *very* lucky, they
*can* be lucrative! (I should note that all my winnings on that day still
didn't quite make up for my prior losses in Las Vegas. I have avoided the VP
machines in favor of the slots, but after reading what you have to say about
VP, and learning the correct way to play, my next visit will concentrate on
VP.)
Glad to see you won. It was, most certainly, a short term phenomenon.
Shalom,
Yours for winning, Dear GameMaster - But I do have a question: does the coin size of a machine ever come into
play? Or should one only look at the "expected return" values as expressed
in *coins* when deciding what to keep? I ask because of the following hand I
got in Deuces Wild while playing WinPoker: 2S 2H JD QD KC The advice was to keep the deuces, the jack and the queen, thus guaranteeing
a 3 of a kind, but giving up the straight. Now, on a quarter machine, the "loss" if you get, say, a 4H, would only be
$1.25; on a dollar machine, $5, and, of course, on a 5-dollar machine, $25.
Presumably those playing 5 dollar machines have the bucks to spare, so a raw
dollar amount of $25 wouldn't matter to them quite as much as it would to
me. But lots of people do play the dollar machines, at least sometimes,
although they normally play the quarters (include me in that category). If I
took that straight, granted I'd be risking a "loss" of considerably more if
the right card comes in, but I'd be assured of having that extra $5, which I
could then take to a quarter machine and use to play 4 hands there. All of
which came together to bring this question to my mind. Dear George, As for your question regarding the coin size, it shouldn't make a
difference, but I know how you feel. When I first got involved with VP a
few years ago, I mostly played quarters, but found myself at a dollar
machine one night and I was down to my last 5 credits. I bet them and was
dealt a flush which consisted of a four-card Royal and a small card. The
correct play is to go for the Royal, but I held the flush to get the 30
bucks. I've always wondered if I would have gotten The Big One (probably
not, since the odds are 46 to 1) and today I wouldn't hesitate to throw away
the little guy. But a really good hand has to be taken in context. If you
only play a lttle each year, it's not the worst mistake to settle for a sure
thing. It's only a problem if you do it all the time.
Yours for winning, Dear GameMaster - In the meantime, I'd like to suggest to dnj (and other Mac users out there)
that they consider Virtual PC or SoftPC as possible alternatives. Both of
these emulate a Pentium processor. Virtual PC, at least on my Macintosh G3,
gives quite adequate performance for connecting to online casinos, and
allows me to use WinPoker (another program for which there is no true
equivalent on the Mac side). Dear George,
Yours for winning, GameMaster, Dear Tony,
Yours for winning, Dear Game Master, Card counting is not illegal in any jurisdiction of the U. S., but some
casinos may ask skilled players to not indulge in Blackjack. The 'trick' is
to disguse your skills, as I teach in my lesson "Casino Playing Tactics"
which can be found on the Blackjack Page of my site. You might also want to
check out my experiences in Mississippi which are chronicled in "The
GameMaster's Secrets".
Yours for winning, Hello, are you the Game Master?
Thank's,
Dear John,
Yours for winning, Dear Gamemaster, Hello,
Yours for winning, Why do you still feature W W W Casinos in your on-line makeup ? ?
They haven't been on-line for months...
They stiil owe me over $4000.00... 8 Months now...
I brought this to your attention 6 months ago... I think their busted out...
You should bring this to your readers attention...
Maybe that wiill wake them up....
Carol
cad2348@aol.com Dear Carol,
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
Dear Jeremy,
Yours for winning, Dear GameMaster, Dear Adam,
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
Sorry, but I haven't heard anything about them, either way. We'll post
this and see if anything comes up.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, What surprises me was that the next shoe I played, it was a true count of
1-->5 the whole time and I started losing the 55 dollars gradually? If I
have a true count of 5 with a 2% edge, why was I suddenly losing?
What you experienced was a short term 'swing' which will happen fairly
often. This card counting stuff is a long term situation; if used properly,
it guarantees a profit. Just as any player can win in the short term, you
had a winning session in negative decks. The loss in a plus situation isn't
unusual, either - remember that even with a 6% edge, the probability of win
is just 53%.
One session does not the 'long term' make.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
I just came across your favorable review of BDPW. Thank you very
much. You can read the review right here. I'm also glad that you forwarded potential sales to Stanford Wong. I
spoke with him a few weeks ago and he told me that when somebody calls up to
order his Stanford Wong's Video Poker that he tells them not to buy that but
to buy BDPW instead. Very few authors would do that. He deserves to be
rewarded. You're welcome, Bob.
Yours for winning, Hi there I have been playing a strategy where I bet $5 a hand and double my bet
at every loss. Is this a fairly safe way of gambling?
I have managed to win over $1000 during 3 hours work using this strategy
but am not sure whether I'll remain this lucky during my next round. My question for you is : Would you recommend playing online as this
method may be susceptible to corruption? and does the recommendation of
always splitting Aces remain valid if you are only allowed to draw one
card per ace after splitting them?
Dear Chris,
As for splitting Aces, the basic strategy assumes you'll only receive one
card on each Ace, since that's the rule at most casinos, worlwide.
Yours for winning, Dear GameMaster,
You still have something to gain by learning to count, because the basic
strategy changes as the count increases and decreases. For example, Basic
Strategy says to hit a hand of 16 against a dealer's 10, but if the running
count is 1 or more, you should stand. While the biggest edge in counting
comes from utilizing a significant betting 'spread', a player can cut the
house edge by .2% or so by varying the play of hands according to the count.
Plus, you may have a larger bankroll some day. With a $50 bankroll,
you should only bet one chip, except when doubling or splitting pairs.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
Dear Howard,
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
For the moment, the site to get the flashcards program is inoperative, but
we're working to get it back up. As for the count not zeroing, it's because
of the two cards which are left. The idea is for you to know what those
cards are in order to check yourself. If you set it to deal out all 104
cards, it should end at zero.
Yours for winning, |