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FRONT PAGE - Back to THE ADVISOR PAGE GameMaster,
Hello, Joe.
Speaking of Global Player Casino, their technical wizards are working on
software to enable our monthly match to have 3 or 4 players at the 'final'
table, which would be pretty exciting. They aren't making any promises
that this will happen, but it'll be great if they can do it.
Yours for winning,
(To our readers: This is in reference to the "GameMaster Blackjack Challenge"tournament that we co-host with Global Player Casino (www.global-player.com). An "instant replay" for all the matches is available at their Website; "adamb" was the challenger in this match.)
Dear GameMaster,
Also, before the last bet, the gamemaster had $570 and adamb had $532.50 , why didn't the gamemaster bet over $162.50 (I think $200 is the max bet) to ensure he wouldn't get beaten?
But in this scenario all adamb has to do is see what Gamemaster bets and then bet more,which is what he did.
Also imagine if gamemaster did bet over $162.50 then adam would have to bet 200 and double to win.
How is it determined who get first position? Thank you
Hello, Jerry.
Yes, adamb had a big advantage by being the last to bet, but somebody has to be first to bet on the final round and I have been last in most of my matches.
Regarding my final bet, $200 would have been fine, IF I knew I was going to win the hand. You'll notice that I bet only $40, thus holding back $530. Adamb had to bet at least $5, so the most he could hold back was $527.50. With a $40 bet, I would win the match if he lost, if we both lost or if he lost and I pushed. Basically, he was forced to win the hand and that happens, on average, 44% of the time. Consequently, I had a 56% chance to win and you have to go with the odds in a situation like this. Believe me, had I known we were both going to win I would have bet $200, but I don't have a crystal ball.
I, of course, had the option to double, but with my 19 against his hand, that didn't offer a lot of hope. So, I had a 56-44 shot at winning, but didn't. I hate to lose, but it's easier to take when I know I made the correct bet. Right after we finished, I thought I had made an incorrect bet, but that was hindsight, because we both beat the dealer. After I calmed down, I realized that I had made the correct bet for this situation and that's all I can do.
The good people at Global Player Casino determine who bets first in the matches (it alternates with each bet), so whoever bets first on hand #1 gets to bet last on hand #25 and that's fine with me.
Yours for winning, Gamemaster, Hi!
Yours for winning, Hi, guy!
This got me thinking. For tax purposes, I'll know I'll need to get a printout
of my account at the end of the year to show that I've spent more than my
winnings. I haven't seen a printout yet, but I would guess that it shows all
winnings (taxable and non-taxable), cash spent, and monies played back in.
So, I got a question for you. Should I remove my card while playing so that
some of the non-taxable winnings don't show on my account? Granted, the cash
back benefit at St. Charles is worthwhile. And I know you can't always
predict
when a win is going to happen. But if the $300-$1999 hits aren't always
recorded on my account through my card, then it will show more
expenditures and
fewer winnings. This would look better tax-wise, and I want to avoid any red
flags to the IRS.
What do you think? Please respond to my email address at work shown below. Hello, Nancy.
Secondly, you need to know that all gambling winnings must be reported,
regardless of whether or not they appear on your playing record. What I
recommend you do is keep track of all your play in 2002 and see where you
come out at the end of the year. Whenever I go to the casino, I take a 3 x
5 card with me and I write on it the date of play, where I'm playing, the
name of anyone who was with me, the machine(s) I played and the amount won
or lost on each.
Having been audited by the IRS for my gambling winnings, I can tell you
that records like this are accepted by them, whereas they aren't all that
wild about a playing record provided by the casino. The reason for that is
because you could always give your slot club card to someone else, so they
don't know for sure that it was you playing each time.
Look at it this way: if you owe taxes, it means you won and that's better
than losing.
Yours for winning,
Dear GameMaster,
I'm happy to hear that we've been able to help.
A few questions before I go out and get all my money back from the
casinos...
The Basic Strategy variations for single deck games are quite a bit
different and far too numerous to list here. You should get a copy of
"Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong. They are in there.
2) I am skeptical that taking insurance when the true count is 3 or higher
will yield a win 80% of the time. I have read on other sites that you should
take insurance when TC > = 3 as well. When I ran a simulation, I was only
winning 33% of the time? Although I was winning slightly more money overall
(2%) than I was losing on the play (probably because I was winning on the big
bets). Am I missing something here? This does not seem like a terribly
advantageous play.
Winning an insurance bet 33% of the time has made it an even-money
proposition because it pays 2 to 1. I understand your skepticism, but
insurance is the single-most important Basic Strategy variation, when done
correctly.
3) You mentioned to leave the table at -1. I have seen others say to leave
at -2. My simulations show that this is a good strategy. However, this
means getting up somewhere during the 2nd shoe on average. Is it really
practical to get up and move so often? Especially at small casinos where
there are a limited # of tables. Or at single or double deck games where you
would be leaving the tables very quickly.
Leaving at a count of -1 is the ideal, but conditions may dictate you do
something else. As you say, it's difficult to do in a small casino. You
need to remember that my lessons are based upon 6-deck games, so my
recommendation for leaving is based upon that. You should play 'through'
single-deck games and you'll probably have to do the same at DD games, but
try and avoid as many hands as possible during negative counts by taking
bathroom breaks, etc. according to the count.
Thanks again for the very informative articles. I hope to be hearing from
you soon!
Glad to oblige.
Yours for winning,
Dear Game Master
The only thing you can do is play Basic Strategy, since the machine renders counting useless.
Some questions i have for you about basic strategy that i hope you can help me with are as follows, and no doubt you have been asked the same many times:-
I can understand the sense of splitting eights to a dealers 2,3,4,5,6,7, with the possibility of winning double or at least breaking even being the greater odds. But when against a dealers 9,10, 0r Ace, since there is a negative expectation anyway, why is the strategy to split - and possibly lose double the original stake, which seemingly contradicts your advice elsewhere to minimise or avoid ones losses?
I read where you write that "......by standing, a player has an expectation of -.537% and by splitting (if DAS is allowed), an expectation of -.483% is realized. So, the extra money which is put to risk does -- in the long run -- give a better return. Think of it this way. Would you rather stand with a 16 against a 10 or hit an 8 against a 10?"
The percentages you see here are based upon the original bet, not both bets.
My initial answer is that i'd rather not be in either position. I can understand that splitting gives the better odds than standing, but since it's still negative odds is it wise to add to the expected loss?
You aren't adding any loss by splitting; you are reducing the total loss. I think what you're forgetting here is that you collect two bets if the dealer busts. Believe me, if it were better to stand with this hand, then that's what we would be doing.
Another is where you have a 9 total against a dealers 2. The advice is to hit instead of double, but both have a positive expectation, with the hit only marginally better than the double. Wouldn't it make more sense to capitalize when one is in such a positive situation and double the stake?
We do double 9 vs. 2 if the True Count is high enough. Perhaps you haven't gotten to that lesson yet.
Can you tell me the mathematical formula used to determine the precise odds in the different player/dealer/count scenarios, or where i can find it?
Check out www.thewizardofodss.com and www.bjmath.com for more information.
I look forward to your reply, and in addition to your skill i wish you lots of luck at the tables and in life. Thank you for the kind thoughts, Allan.
Yours for winning, Good morning Gamemaster: I had played twenty or thirty hours of about breaking even. A couple of days later after our last correspondence,
(where you stated that I needed to learn to count in order to overcome the Casino advantage,
I ran into the BUZZ SAW of Standard Diviation.)
(Thank you very much for that lesson. What a reality check that is.) Playing $5 a hand I managed to lose $200 in just a couple of hours.
(I was still playing basic strategy, I hadn't learned to count yet.) Almost every hand I was dealt was a stiff with an incredible number of 14s, 15s, and 16s.
The dealer was continually showing 7 or better. The few times I had good hands the dealer seemed to pull better ones.
(I am thankful for your lesson on standard diviation.
I am a natural mathematician, I can appreciate what you showed me.) I felt quite a bit of Angst and sat on the sidelines and went to work on perfecting counting. Last night I felt prepared enough to try and count in the Casino. I found a Casino with one $2 table (6 decks) so I could afford the 50 times rule for my bankroll which is only $700 at this time.
6 Decks, H17, DA2, No DAS, No surrender
I played with the following table True Count
1 $2
2+ $4 or $5
3+ $10
4 or more $15 (couldn't afford to bet more a hand because of the fifty rule.) I had only two hours and determined to play with discipline.
The first number of shoes had negative counts, one was very poor so I left the table. The last two shoes I played before I had to leave were amazing.
The count quickly got high, after a few hands the count was over 20!, Near the end of the shoe the count was still over twenty, (once it reached 29 with only two decks remaining..)
(They play to between 75% and 85% penetration.) What a rush! Knowing all those face cards would be coming, then seeing them come! I got a number of stiff hands but because of your insights on 15 and 16 against a dealer face card during a high True Count,
I gritted my teeth and stood, and watched the dealer bust even though he was showing Face.
What a Thrill! The best part was it made me look inconsistant.
My cards were poor yet I managed winning $50 on a $2 minimum bet table by varying my bet, Now thats Fun!
The best part is I now have a clue because of your excellant, reality lessons.
(This will become profitable when standard diviation gives me a lot of pat hands in the same situation.
But it gave me an edge with normal cards and thats cool.) Thanks and Best wishes
Hello, Eastwind.
Yours for winning, Hi GameMaster,
The True Count is the count per remaining deck. That makes it possible to
standardize your betting and playing decisions, regardless of the number of
decks used in the game. For example, if you're playing a game that uses
six decks and, on the first hand, the running count goes to 6, it basically
means the count per remaining deck (about 5.75 decks, because less than a
quarter deck was used for the first hand) is just over 1. That's quite a
bit different than if you were at a 2-deck game and the running count is 6
on the first hand, because then the count per remaining deck would be over
3. We use the True Count to determine, among other things, the bet for the
next hand, so you can see that you'd be betting more on the next hand in
the 2-deck game, even though the running count is the same as that in the
6-deck game.
I have the same lack of understanding of the term penetration.
This is how many of the cards are actually dealt before the shuffle. In a
6-deck game, the dealer is not going to deal all 312 cards before
shuffling. More likely, s/he will deal 4, 4.5 or 5 decks before the
shuffle card comes out. If 4 decks are dealt before the shuffle, that's
66% penetration, 4.5 dealt is 75% pen. and so forth. When you go to a
casino, you'll see how this works.
Also I do not understand how on-line blackjack is a profitable use of my
time.
I have read in one of your articles that the deck is reshuffled after
every hand, therefore it's not possible to count cards. From my
understanding, if you can't count cards it's not possible to overcome the
house advantage (even if playing basic stat); therefore over a long peroid
of time you are gonna lose not matter what. Am I missing something here?
Yes, you are missing the bonuses that many casinos offer. For example, if
they give you a 25% "sign-up" bonus and you deposit $600, you'll have $750
in your account. Now understand that the casino isn't going to let you
just take the money and walk away; it will require some minimum amount of
play before you can collect the bonus. Let's say they require you to make
5 times the deposit and bonus in bets. Five times $750 is $3750, so you'll
have to make at least that much in bets; let's say you play 1000 hands of
Blackjack at $5 per hand, which will total $5000 in bets. Depending upon
the casino's rules, they'll have about a 0.50% edge over you. One-half of
1 percent of $5000 is $25, so you can expect to lose that much. If you
lose $25, you'll end with $725 in your account and that's a profit of $125
for about 5 hours' work. Sometimes you'll win $$$ in those 1000 hands of
play and sometimes you'll lose, but if you do this often enough AND if you
play proper Basic Strategy, it'll work out much like I've shown.
I really thank you for your help. I started your blackjack school (online)
and have memorize basic stat perfectly! I really want to understand all
the concepts of BJ before I step in to a casino.
I understand. Glad to help.
Yours for winning, Hello GM, P.S.- Do you have any opinion on "double exposure"
black jack? This is the game where both the dealers
cards are face up. Is this game beatable or is it a
tourist trap?
Hello, Joe.
The A.C. game is *barely* beatable and that's only if you back-count the
tables while using a fairly large bet spread. You should read my series,
"Beating Tough Games", which is archived on the Blackjack Page of my site
for some strategies to use. There are no changes in the Basic Strategy for
an 8-deck game versus a 6-deck game.
I'm also from New Jersey, but I'm afraid I don't get back as often as I'd
like, so I don't hold any classes there. It's definitely something to
think about, though, and I appreciate the interest.
The Double Exposure Game in A.C. is well worth your time and consideration,
because it's more beatable that the 'regular' game. The difference is that
each increase of 1 in the True Count is worth about 0.50% to the counter,
but in Double Ex, it's worth about 0.65%. Of course, it's an entirely
different Basic Strategy.
Spanish 21 is also something to think about. For a good discussion on
that, go see the Wiz at www.thewizardofodds.com/
Stanford Wong's book, "Professional Blackjack" will tell you everything you
need to know about Double Exposure Blackjack.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
Grasshopper!
It's also very nice to hear that you have begun your journey on the path of
winning. Congratulations.
Yes, the surrender of 14 vs.10 at a True Count of 3 includes 7,7.
"When you can snatch the $5 chip from my hand, you will be ready."
Thank you for you prompt answer to my question gamemaster. I am in the process of polishing all the minor details of my strategy and playing the most perfect mathimatical game I can. my next dilemma occurs because in your essay on surrender you advocated surrender of 16 vs. 9,10, A.....my hi/low index advocates standing with a 10 for a count of +1 or greater..I know that the numbers at this point are very close but ...what would you do....I want to play the most perfect game possible and just let the chips fall where they may....hopefully in my pocket...
Surrender always takes precedence over hitting or standing when the numbers are equal or even close.
Yours for winning, GM, Thanks
Yours for winning, Gamemaster, Hello, Nathan. Betting $25 per hand with a $200 bankroll is financial suicide, because it's only 8 bets and you can lose 8 bets in a row very easily. You'll be much better off to bet just $5 per hand and use the time at the tables to practice your counting. I think you'll find that, on your first few trips, keeping the count and playing each hand properly takes some 'real-life' practice. Don't forget that you can also win while making $5 bets. If I can't talk you out of playing the $25 tables, then stand behind one, count the cards and don't place a bet until the True Count is 4 or more. That will at least give you a shot at lasting for more than ten minutes or so. Good luck.
Yours for winning,
Dear Gamemaster,
Hi, Steve. Great name: Slim Pickems. Did you come up with that one?
Yours for winning,
Hello GameMaster,
Thanks in advance for your help,
Hello, Sam. So, plan on playing a 6-deck game where you may double on any first two cards and double after splitting pairs, except that the dealer hits A-6. There are only a few adjustments needed for that, but you should learn them. Go to www.blackjackinfo.com and you can generate a proper Basic Strategy table for that game at the Blackjack Strategy Engine. Compare that with my lessons and you'll see the differences. Good luck on your trip and let us know how you do.
Yours for winning, GM, If you are using the True Count for betting purpose, then convert every time before you place a bet. If you are also using the count to vary from Basic Strategy, convert every time before you play your hand. I know that sounds like a lot, but it will come to you with practice, I promise.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, "At Pharaoh's Casino, the single player version of their casino offers a wonderful single deck game that allows double after split and the dealer stands on all 17s. Using the appropriate strategy chart (make your own here), the player actually has a tiny edge in this game of around 0.07%." Do you know anything about this? Is this for real? Adam But don't forget that 0.07% is a very small edge and, because they shuffle the deck after every hand of play, you can't gain anything beyond that. If you can play 200 hands per hour and bet $10 per hand, your expected profit is $14 per hour, but a typical hour's play will find you up by as much as $325 or down by about $300, so you'll need a minimum bankroll of $500 to approach this properly. BTW, they aren't the only software company that has a good single-deck game. Check out the Blackjack page of our other site, "The GameMaster's Casino Directory" (www.gamemasterlist.com) for others.
Yours for winning, Hello GM,
Hello, Chris.
Yours for winning, Gamemaster, Hello. As for the situations you've described, if you miss a card, just ignore it and keep on counting. If you lose the count completely, just stay at the table, play Basic Strategy and bet the minimum. When the dealer reshuffles, start counting again. We all have these problems the first few times we play "live." Hang in there, practice, and you'll do fine.
Yours for winning, Hi GameMaster, Good idea. If I ever finish the tournament series, I'll do one on the "art" of double-deck play. In the meantime, you may want to check out Lesson 19 in "The GameMaster's Blackjack School" where I analyze a double-deck game (now gone, darn it)that I used to play. There is a suggested betting strategy, etc. in there. While the game existed, I called it my "bank". Whenever I needed $$$, I'd play it and make a withdrawal. The reason I ask is because it is possible to find single deck games, but "counter"-measures are very prevalent - it seems rare to find a single deck game that doesn't shuffle up before half the deck is used up. Even me playing against just the dealer I can usually get 4 hands max before the shuffle. Double deck games are a lot more common, less heat from the pit critters, plus depending on the dealer (tips help) I can usually get much better penetration and therefore a better true count. Here are some of the questions that come to mind: 1) Over time, is it more profitable to play single deck with 50% penetration or double deck with 75% penetration? The common rules I find allow double on any two cards, double after splits (except aces - 1 card) and resplit up to 4 hands, but unfortunately the dealer hits on soft 17 and there's no surrender option. Using these rules, another website says the house advantage is .0469% for single and .3932% for double (big difference!) but I wonder how much the larger penetration takes off the house advantage in the double deck? It all depends upon the bet spread you can get. If all the rules are equal, the SD game is only slightly more profitable than the DD game with a 1-4 bet spread used on both. However, if you can get a 1-8 spread on the DD game, it's almost twice as profitable as the SD game with a 1-4 spread. 2) My homemade counting method divides the count by 2 until it goes down to 1 deck. For instance a +4 count results in a true count of +2 if it's the first hand off a double deck. Sounds logical, right? My problem with this is it seems like there is a lot more room for error if the count varies widely so soon into the deck. So what if the true count is +2 after the first hand. With 90-100 cards left, it doesn't seem smart to add two units to my original bet. Am I right or is there something I'm missing? You're definitely giving something up by calculating the TC this way, but I doubt if it's a lot. Look at the betting schedule in Lesson 19 and formulate yours around that. 3) Also based on the above, should the betting schedule for double deck be different as opposed to the single-deck betting schedule? Most definitely. A 1-4 bet spread is probably all you should use for a single-deck game in order to keep the welcome mat out, but a 1-8 spread is the minimum you'll need for a DD game. 4) What are the variations in basic strategy (if any) between single and double deck? Quite a few. Go to www.blackjackinfo.com and run a Basic Strategy chart for both games and then sit down with them side-by-side to see the differences. A DD game is much more like a 6-deck game, rather than a single-deck game. 5) This last question I always wondered about regardless if it's single deck or double. What happens when the true count goes WAY up? Since I play double deck mostly, I frequently find counts at +6, and sometimes at +10 or more. It seems like most betting schedules say go up to 5x original bet max. But with counts this high, should I be betting even more (assuming I can get away with it)? In these instances, should I bet 6x? 8x? My car? Sex with my girlfriend? You should have your maximum bet out at a TC of 6. Again, see Lesson 19 for a suggestion. Save offering sex with your girlfriend to owners of Websites that help you win at the tables.
Thanks and good luck in the tournament! Thanks. I think I'll need some luck, but I never "count" on it.
Yours for winning, Hi GM, Question: (Example:) I get a 6 and a 7 card (dealer gets a 8 )...basic strat says when you get a 13 to "stand 2 thru 6, o/w hit"...so I hit...now I have a 6,7, and my new card is a 2...so my total is 15...NOW do I think of basic strat again remembering what to do for a total of 15? Sometimes using basic strat will NOT work when you are using it past your first two cards especially when you have three plus cards and basic strat says to double or split. If I don't use basic strat past the first two cards what do I do in order to play the odds correctly? Please help me...
I hope you understand what I'm asking?
Hello. Because you may double only on your first two cards, the Basic Strategy can get confusing when you have multiple-card hands, especially when you have an Ace in it. For a simple explanation of what to do in that situation, read my article, "Multiple-card Soft Hands" that is in the archives on the Blackjack Page of my site. You won't run into this type of situation very often for splitting pairs, because you'll either split them or you won't, according to the Basic Strategy. If you split, say, a pair of 8s and the third card is another 8, resplit the hand if possible, but if not, play it as a 16.
Yours for winning, |