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The GameMaster Advisor
February, 2001

GameMaster please help!
I'm having a problem trying to decide which count is better, a simple level one unbalanced count or a heavy duty level two, i.e.,, High-Opt 11 or Advanced Omega 11. I like to play DD games and sometimes 6 deck. I feel I could do the math and true count if giving enough time to practice. Although with all the heat that is given to good players, I'm not sure if the small addition of gain if worth the effort vs. good camouflage.
Thanks for your help.
ZUZU

Hello, ZUZU.
The real key is the ability to use the count accurately. If you believe you can be accurate with the true count conversion, Advanced Omega II is the way to go, especially for the double-deck game. Camouflage is needed, to one degree or another, regardless of which system you use, so you might as well get the best bang for your buck.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/23/2001


GM,
I spoke to you before going on my trip to Las Vegas on Feb.8-12,01 and you advised me to incorporate the A-5 count with basic strategy. The casino enviroment is a lot different than my practic sessions: dealers, players and pit bosses talking made it difficult to focus (I didn't want to make it to obvious that I was counting) on the count and basic strategy. I found myself moving from table to table after 20 mins.avg. because of my losing streaks (lose $50-$75) or the dealer was just winning more hands than me. I would buy in for $100 and bet $5 a hand, raising $5-$10 a hand ($30 max. bet) only after a win and going back to $5 a hand after a loss. I played 5 hours in 14 sessions. I didn't get the playing time (15-20 hours) I had expected. But, I did stick to playing basic strategy at all of my sessions. MISTAKE! I started betting $10 a hand because I was being RATED! That lesson cost me about $200, forget about rated play for now. I'm not concered about my losses,but more on my correct playing sessions. Played only at tables dealer S17,DAS,Double any two cards and Multi spit allowed. Do you think I moved tables too fast, not waiting for the tables to turn? I will be going back in Oct. 2001.

Thank you,
Wade

Hello, Wade.
You're playing the correct games, but not using the Ace-5 count in the most effective way. First, you obviously need to practice more so that you can still keep the count when others are talking, etc. Secondly, you should be using the count for betting purposes. There is no mathematical validity to raising your bet after a win or lowering it after a loss. Further, don't move if the dealer is "hot" or not, because all that matters is betting with the count and playing proper Basic Strategy. As you discovered, there is no value in overbetting because you're being rated, so I'm glad you're giving that up.

Here's what I suggest for your next trip: Find a good game and just stay at the table unless the Ace-5 count drops way down in the negative zone and then take a bathroom break, etc. until the dealer shuffles again. By cutting down on your moves from table to table, you'll get in more play and that's the key to winning. Vary your bets only according to the count and be absolutely sure that you know Basic Strategy by heart. Remember that these tools will get you only about even with the house, so you can still lose, but I think you'll see the value of all this as time goes on.

Please let us know how you make out.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/21/2001


Hello,
I was at the President casino over the weekend and my friend wanted to try the triple sevens. I was playing basic strategy and keeping a sevens count. When the count got good I would nudge him so he would make the bet (I chose not to play the sevens at all) Anyway during a good seven count the lady next to him played it and got two 7's of spades. They called the floor and the woman hit and got the third seven of spades for $5000. My question is, is the expectation different when there are more players at the table? I don't think so but my friend seems to think you have a better chance at the triple 7 alone at the table. (I guess because you will get more sevens than if there are other players) Please let me know your view on this. Also I calculated the chances of getting a triple suited 7 at around 1 in 62700.

Please let me know if this is accurate.
Thank You

E. B.

Hello.
I'll bet that was fun to watch. Too bad your friend didn't get it.

As for the number of people at the table, that doesn't make any difference, because the other players also 'eat up' non-sevens. It's all the same.

You were close in your calculation: It's actually 1 in 62,893. The probability in a six-deck game is 24/312 x 5/311 x 4/310 = .0000159.

I like counting 7s even though the $$$ never amount to much. But, it's basically an even bet when there are two 'extra' 7s in each remaining deck. Plus, it's only a buck and it's good for camouflage. No "real" card-counter would ever bet the 7s (at least that's what the pit critters think.)

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/13/2001


Hi Gamemaster:
I have a question. In answer to a non-counting Blackjack player's question, in the Jan. advisor, you said, "since all the casinos will have a long term edge over you, there is no advantage in varying your bets."

I use a 50% progession---flat betting for two wins, then increase subsequent bets by 50% and back to the table minimum when I lose a bet. I know in the long run that I will lose. However, in a particular session, say I get really lucky and win twenty hands in a row at my normal $5 mimimum bet table. If I were flat betting I'd win $100. With the progression betting I'd win $6,453.

Looking at the game from a session standpoint, rather than the long run, wouldn't the basic strategy player be better off with some type of progession betting instead of the flat bet.
Best,
Mac

Hello, Mac.
I've never really written a complete article about why progressions don't work and maybe I should. But let's look at them from a practical point of view before I get into all the mathematical mumbo-jumbo. If progressions worked, there wouldn't be any Blackjack games anywhere. Let's face it, progressions are easy to use and anyone can do it, so lots of people are and yet the casinos are still making a profit at Blackjack, so on a 'grand' level, they cannot be working. The corollary to this is the casinos paying 2 for 1 for a Blackjack. Why don't they? It would be easier for the dealers in that they wouldn't have to fuss with those half-dollar chips, etc. But if they did that, the average player would have nearly a 2% edge over the casino. So, you don't see any BJ games out there that pay 2 for 1 on a Blackjack. See my thinking here? If it's good for the casino, it will continue but if it's bad for the casino, it disappears. You can use a progression in any casino and it's because they don't work.

Now, to your specific question, what you say is true: If we consider them only from a short-term point of view, progressions can work. But what is "short-term"? If you mean playing 50 hands where there is a 20-hand winning streak, then I have to agree. But that's not how it works for most people. Few play 50 hands, win and then give up the game forever. On a more practical level, let's say we all play 200,000 hands in our lives. Since we both agree that the amount bet has no effect on whether or not we win or lose the hand, I think it's safe to say that the casino will end up with about a 1% edge over us. That basically means that we'll win 99,000 hands and lose 101,00 hands for a net loss of 2000 hands. The flat-bet player will lose 2000 of his bets. The progression player will also lose 2000 hands, and we don't know if some are minimum bets or top bets or something in between (remember that all progressions end with the loss of a large bet unless it's time to shuffle), but we do know that the average bet will be bigger than the minimum. So, the progression player will bet more and, even though s/he may capitalize on "streaks" like you describe, in the end it just comes out to them losing the same number of hands, but losing more $$$ in the process.

I hope this makes sense.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/12/2001


GameMaster:
Hello there, I have used a betting strategy in my practice sessions on the computer that has worked extremely well. I was wondering if you thought it would be a good strategy to employ in real life situations and statistically what my odds would be of being successful with it.

Basically it is a doubling strategy where every time I lose a hand I double my bet from the previous hand. When I win a hand I bet the table minimum.

The net effect is you win the table minimum on every winning hand, with the losing hand's not mattering as long as you are able to keep doubling.

The things that kills this strategy are obviously, running out of money or doubling up to a number higher than the table maximum. So my question for you is what are the odds of losing x number of hands in a row.

I figure if you can get a table with a large enough spread, say $2.00 to $500 you can lose up to 8 hands in a row without the strategy breaking down. I know 8 hands is highly likely statistically if you play enough hands, however I would like to know the actual odd of this occuring. I played at home for several hours at about 200 hands per hour and it never happened to me.

Anyway, sorry to go on so long. Any thoughts you might have on this would be greatly appreciated.
Jason

Hello, Jason.
The strategy you're contemplating is called the "Martingale" system and, while it will work for some period of time, it'll eventually fail. Since the probability of losing a hand in Blackjack is 47.9%, the probability of losing 8 in a row is 0.479 to the 8th power or about 0.0013274 which translates into a 1 in 753 chance.

What happens with the Martingale is that you get a lot of little wins and then, one fine day, you get a gigantic loss that wipes out all those little wins. But don't take my word for it. Continue practicing on your computer and you'll see what I mean.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/10/2001


GM,
I really apprecite your article(s) about on line gambling. Thought I knew a lot but your articles made me realize how much I did not know. Now I keep basic strategy tables by my computer while gambling - along with other of your suggestions. Also feel much more secure about online gambling with your info.
THANKS AGAIN
JBJ

Hello.
I'm really glad that we have been a help to you.
Thanks for taking the time to write.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/10/2001


Hi Gamemaster,
Just read the article about the rather upset individual, Jane, after her experience at Global-Player casino and just wanted to thank you for the laugh. I noticed the article was dated from a while past, but I just stumbled upon it.

Anyway, after the initial laugh I felt it appropriate to write you to let you know your review was right on. I've played dozens of online casinos and Global-Player ranks as one of the best. I play video poker exclusively and GPs selection and odds are the best I've seen. As for honest, I was fortunate enough to hit a royal and the check was in my hands within two weeks. Trust me, that is fast. So, from someone who knows how to use advice, I say thank you. Your advice and reviews are one of the best on the net.

Thank you,
Brad Whittaker

Hello, Brad.
Thanks for writing. I'm glad you enjoyed our little "flame war."

I'm also glad to hear that you're doing well at Global-Player. Congratulations on the Royal!
I appreciate the kind words.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/9/2001


GameMaster,
Sorry for bugging you but I've seen mentioned a few times some single deck games online that have a modest player edge for proper basic strategy. Are there? If so, is anyone keeping track of them?

Thanks,
An avid fan of the site,
Chad.

Hello, Chad.
I can never be bugged by a fan, so write anytime.

Those games definitely do exist and you'll find a list of them on the Blackjack page of our other site, The GameMaster's Casino Directory (www.gamemasterlist.com). Take a look at the single-deck games offered by Boss Media and Unified Gaming. We also list the casinos using that particular brand of software.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/9/2001


Hi GameMaster,
I just registered for an online casino called Captain Cooks. They gave me a free $40 bonus with my initial deposit of $20. So, can I just cash-in and get that $40 or do i have to make some sort of bet before I have access to it. I did, infact, cash out, and I think it worked.
How can this be.
Free $40???
Pete

Hello, Pete.
I do believe that Captain Cooks will give you a bonus for just downloading their software and making a purchase of $20. The big question is whether or not they'll let you withdraw it without betting. Most casinos require that you make a certain number of bets before they actually let you withdraw the bonus. For example, many require at least 2 times the value of the bonus and deposit combined so, in your case, it would amount to $120 worth of bets, such as 24 hands of $5 Blackjack. I guess you'll find out how this works when your cashout goes through.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/5/2001


GM,
First, I would like to say I think your site is very informative. I just recently came across it. I'm hoping you'll be able to help. I am currently learning Uston APC, and would like to know if a simulation can be run to find out what advantage I might have playing in AC? 8 decks,double on anything, split up to three times (not aces), DAS, insurance, no surrender, with a spread of 1-12. I'm not sure if anything else is needed.
Thanks.

Hello.
If you play all the hands (don't 'wong' in or out), you'll be operating with an overall advantage of about 0.60%, assuming 75% penetration. That is just too low to offer any kind of meaningful return.

If you will back count and not enter the game until you have a 0.5% advantage and leave when the count drops to where you're even with the house, your overall return would be a more acceptable 1.25%.

I hope this helps and I'm glad you've found the site useful.

Yours for winning,
The GameMaster
2/3/2001