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FRONT PAGE - Back to THE ADVISOR PAGE GameMaster, 1) When you doubledown..according to the chart you should always hit between
5 through 8...but why can't you double down on any value 11 and below when the
dealer has a 5 or 6 facing up? The dealer will most likely bust anyway..so
wouldn't make sense to double down on your hand that's 11 and below? Unfortunately, the dealer will bust with a 6 up only 42% of the time; the
other 58% of the time, s/he will make a hand. By doubling on a 7 , for
example, you'll lose 12.6% of all the $$$ you bet in that situation
(assuming a 6-deck game, dealer stands on A-6), but if you hit, you'll win
3.4%, a difference of 16%. Believe me, the good people who figured out the
proper playing strategy took all those situations into consideration. 2) When card counting..How do you know how many chips you should place as a
bet. Is there a sysytem or a formula that calculates how many units you
should raise your bet(considering you are using 6-8 deck of cards). For
instance when you have a card count of +7 how many chips should you place down
6-8 decks are used)? The bet is based upon several things: the total amount of your 'bankroll',
the edge the casino has 'off the top' and the number of decks remaining in
the shoe. For a thorough discussion on how to figure this, see the lessons
on my site. They're on the Blackjack Page under 'Money Management'.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
I really don't understand much about statistics, but in Caribbean Stud if
you go in (('call') with a pair of twos you are hoping that the dealer
doesn't qualify because if they do, you almost definitely lose(same thing
with k/a/q and other low pairs). Arent these
hands almost the same as going in with any blind hands? i would think you would
have better odds if you only bet a pair of 5s or 6s(am i wrong?).
when I first was taught the game, I learned to go in with a pair or k/a
and that is like saying hit on 17 stick on 16 only because that is what the
dealer does. Thanx for taking the time to read this. Thanks for the compliment. The proper strategy for Caribbean Stud is to
basically 'call' the dealer (by making a bet which is twice the ante) when
your hand is A, K, J, 8, 3 or better. This includes all pairs, because they
win when the dealer qualifies with an A, K, but s/he doesn't have a pair. A
pair of 2s isn't a winner, but you lose less by making the bet. Let's say you get a pair of 2s for 1000 hands in a row. If you bet $1 per
hand and never call, you'll lose $1000. But, if you call everytime, you'll
win the $1 ante whenever the dealer doesn't qualify and win both the ante
and the 'bet' when the dealer qualifies, but doesn't have a pair. You also
'push' on a few hands. Now, the dealer will fail to qualify 433 times in
the 1000 hands and you'll get back your $1 ante, plus your $2 bet and a $1
payout on the ante for a return of $4. So, $4 X 433 = $1732. In 52 times
out of the 1000, the dealer will qualify, but won't have a pair, so you'll
get back $6 (your $3 bet paid at even money) which equals $6 X 52 = $304.
You and the dealer will 'push' 6 times in a thousand, so you get your $3
back, thus $3 X 6 = $18. Now, add all those returns up and you get $2052.
You bet $3000 and lost $948. But remember, if you decline to bet all 1000
hands, you would have lost $1000. Thus, you lose less by calling on a pair
of 2s. Admittedly, you're putting a lot more money in play, so in the short
term a pair of deuces is a risky play. But, if you play a lot, it's a
worthwhile bet. Of course, as the pairs get bigger, your return increases,
because you'll beat the dealer more often.
Yours for winning, Hi Brenda and GameMaster, Unfortunately, I don't have any better track record with VP. That's why
I'm writing to you... I need to talk to somebody in the "know". I must
be doing something VERY wrong. I decided before I would waste a lot of money in the Casino, I would try
to learn everything I could about VP. To that end, I purchased a copy
of the WinPoker Tutor, by Bob Dancer, from Zamzow. As far as a tutor,
for learning how to discard, I think it is great, however, after playing
in excess of 28,000 hands, I have detected what I believe to be a flaw
in the program. I reported this to Zamzow, but they just blew me off,
and didn't want to talk about it. (Yes, I defined a Jacks or Better
Game, which matches the Pay Table at the Casino where I play.) Now before I tell you about the flaw, let me tell you that I'm a retired
Programmer/Analyst. Computers and software are not totally a foreign
entity to me, although I have never written game software. What I found is what I believe to be a problem with the Pseudo Random
Number Generator, in WinPoker Tutor, that is used to select the cards,
after a shuffle. To me, it produces FAR more "pairs", than anything I
ever see at the Casino. Further more, these "pairs" lead to "2-pair",
"3-of-kind", "Full Hse" and "4-of-kind"; after the discard, and again
seem to produce FAR more of these hands than I ever see at the Casino. When I first suspected this, I actually dealt some hands from a real
deck of cards (shuffling each time), and it seemed the frequency of
"pairs" were reasonable. Then, I got another VP simulation program
(Diana Gruber's Jacks or Better). I played it for several thousand
hands, and it appeared to produce a much more reasonable frequency of
"pairs", similar at least to a real pack of cards. My first question is: Have you noticed this anomaly in WinPoker?
I have not noticed such a flaw and have played over 100,000 hands at it. I guess it wouldn't matter if you were just learning the proper
discards, but I wanted to utilize the program to analyze a "betting
system", and the results I was seeing were encouraging, but when I took
my system to the Casino, "I lost my shirt". (Don't double up in
laughter, I know, I'm new at this, and I'm just learning....) The nice thing about a VP game with a 100+% return is that you don't have to
utilize a betting 'system'; just play the max coins and play each hand properly.
Anyway, that leads me to my next question: Are there certain Payout
machines which just "should not" be played, except for pure enjoyment,
or to put it another way --you may as well throw your money down in the
Casino parking lot and let it blow away??? Assuming the cards are dealt randomly from a 52-card deck, the only
determination of a 'good' or 'bad' machine is the long term payback, which
can be figured from the pay schedule. You must also play each hand
properly, of course. I am 15 minutes away from a Casino, here in Central Iowa, unfortunately,
it is on an Indian Reservation, and I understand they don't have to
follow ANY guidelines or rules about how their machines payout. (From
what I've seen, I suspect it is very true!) That is correct; they aren't under the supervision of a state casino control
commission. I have searched the Casino, and analyzed some of the Pay tables using
WinPoker, and the very best machine I can find is a Quarter machine
which pays 8/5, and 4000 for the RF, with 5-coins bet. It is the only
machine in the Casino, like that. I found NO 9/6 machines. The nickel
machines are worse, and I analyzed the Deuces Wild and Joker Wild, and
they are slightly worse than the 8/5 machine I found.
So... my question is: Since I can't play a 9/6, or an 8/5 Progressive,
is there NO betting strategy or money management tip that will work with
a flat-top 8/5 machine? Such a game has a long term return of only 97.3%, regardless of how you play it. As you can imagine, after playing in excess of 28,000 hands of WinPoker,
I don't make that many discard mistakes, anymore, but since my bankroll
at the Casino never goes as far as it does with WinPoker, I am about to
give up playing the game altogether, and go back to the Slots. Rather than go back to slots, consider going to casinos with good VP; we
have a lot of them here in the St. Louis area.
Recently, I purchased a copy of Professional Video Poker, by Stanford
Wong (a made up name). That was another waste of money. He only talks
about 8/5 Progressive, and I guess that means 8/5 flat-top, is a waste
of time (I don't know for sure). Yes, playing an 8/5 with a 4000-coin progressive is a waste of time.
I guess, to summarize, I'm looking for any assistance or clues that you
might be able to provide me. I hope this helps.
Yours for winning, Hello GameMaster, Also while am here do you have any information on casinos fixing or changing
the payout over time, like turning the payout % higher and lower at points
during the day. Dear Jim,
Parts 1 & 2 are located in the section called "The Best of GMO" which can be
reached by the 'button' on the left side of the front page. My webmaster
was supposed to have added a link in the story, but he forgot. I'll remind him.
As for the casinos changing the payouts, it's a very complicated procedure,
so it's not done very often on slots and certainly isn't done on a
day-to-day basis. As for video poker, the payout is changed only if the
schedule on the machine is changed (ie., reducing the payout for a Full
House from 9 for 1 to 8 for 1).
Yours for winning, Dear Gamemaster:
Sincerely,
Dear Paul,
Yours for winning, Dear Jeff,
Yes, you can gain an advantage in Pai Gow poker by acting as the banker as
much as possible, while betting the minimum when another is banking. In Las
Vegas, where the house takes a 5% rake on the winning bets, an edge of about
.3% is possible, but that can be larger if you're playing against unskilled
bettors. In California, where the house charges a $1 per hand or so, the
edge a banker has is about 1.25%, minus the 'rake'. An excellent book on
the topic is "Optimal Strategy for Pai Gow Poker" by Stanford Wong. It's
available from his web site at www.bj21.com.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, Dear Dwayne, I'm glad you like the site and I hope this helps.
Yours for winning, Hi again. Dear Dana,
Yours for winning, Hi Gamemaster;
Not at all; ask away
I'm one of those "burnt-out counters" that is just fed up with the whole
Casino BJ hassle and would like to just go into a Casino and have fun
without losing my butt on a negative expectancy game. The pressure that the
BJ BP's and even the dealers tend to put you through to take a few of their
checks home is getting to be a real pain in the neck. All that crap and for
what? A lousy 1% edge that may or may not pay off for the once a month player.
Just a comment - to a degree, quite true, but it still can be fun.
Question #1:
On the outside I've got 6 years before taking the old "Dirt Nap". = 60
trips or 180 days x 5 hours a day which = 900 hours of gambling left for MY
PERSONAL LONG RUN. For simulations this to me should be more accurate
because your dealing with winning and losing cycles and a fixed number based
on realistic numbers instead of that elusive long run number that's never
been nailed down to my knowledge but just floats around out there not
knowing if it's too much or too little.
Doesn't this math make more sense than chasing the long run based on it
being an infinite number?
Sure. Let's put you at a decent six-deck game, DOA, DAS, S17 with 5 of 6
dealt out. With a $3000 BR, your top bet should be $60, so at a $5 table,
you can get a 1-12 spread. Using Blackjack Risk Manager (TM), which I wrote
about in my lesson entitled "Letter To an Ex-Counter", you can expect to
make $6.71 an hour, if you can play 75 hands/hr. But, as you say, that's a
'long term' expectation. What can you expect to happen during a 3-day trip
where you play 16 hours or 16 X 75 = 1200 hands and you take $1000 of your
bankroll with you? You will average 16 X $6.71 = $107.36 in winnings for
the trip. Two-thirds of the time, your result will be between a loss of
$473 and a win of $688. Ninety-five percent of the time, your result will be
between -$1054 and +$1269. If you are willing, at any point on the trip
(first hour of play or last hour of play), to stop if you are ahead by $500,
45% of your trips will end with a profit of $500. On 6.11% of your trips,
you'll lose the entire $1000.
Those aren't such bad stats when you consider the fact that 99% of the
people who walk into a casino lose. If you think you've got 900 hours of
play left, hell, that's a $5400 profit! How much fun will you have, how
many cocktail servers can you smile at and how many free lunches can you eat
in that time? It's not always about $$$, you know. Sometimes it's just
about winning. It's the casino's table, their dealer, their cards, their
rules and I beat 'em. God, I love that.
Question #2:
Laying the odds on a 'wrong' bet just puts more money into action. There
is, as you state, no house edge, so there's little to gain, other than it
may increase your comps, etc. at the expense of MUCH larger swings in your
bankroll. Yes, you've virtually won the game by getting your bet behind the #.
Hope I have made my point clear enough GM, guess I'm thinking the old "1 in
the hand is better than a bunch in the bush...... Thanks in advance for your
prompt answer,
Hang in there, Chico. You've got a lot longer to go; enjoy it.
Yours for winning,
Hi Gamemaster,
"Hi. I love your column! I'm a budding blackjack enthusiast and am
generally a risk-averse basic strategy flat-better unless the count's
looking outrageously good or bad. However, I'm looking to get the most
mileage out of making all the right plays."
. . .and I just couldn't resist giving some unsolicited advice based on my
current understanding of what it takes to win at blackjack. Maybe if you
agree with what I say you can forward it to him --
-- many novices who read the average blackjack book (especially Humble and
Cooper's World's Greatest Blackjack Book) come away with the idea that
basic startegy makes you a winner for the majority of your sessions. I
suspect that even Humble and Cooper were slightly under this misconception
and that's what made them particularly paranoid of dealer cheating. They
would talk about how losing a double down bet under extreme high count
situations is already a sign of possible dealer cheating. I know I came
away from the same book with the same misconception. BUT, after actual
casino play and more study, I've come to the realization that there is
absolutely no assurance that knowing BS will help you win any particular
session. A lot of times the old lady sitting beside you ('Marge' in the
book) will vastly outperform you mimmicking the dealer and standing on
A-7's against any upcard. Even at extreme high counts, the player still
only wins less than 60% of the hands.
I guess the more important point I'm trying to make is that the term
"risk-averse winning blackjack player" is an oxymoron. The only way to beat
the game in the long run is to bet correctly at all times (double down 11
vs. 10 even if you already have a big bet out, bet correctly at high counts
even if you know you'll lose at least 40% of these hands, etc.) There is no
way to win without ranging your bets. Playing conservatively with BS only
cuts down the house's edge, it does not turn your expectation from negative
to positive.
MORAL : Winning at blackjack takes TOTAL COMMITTMENT. Employing half of
what you know doesn't give you small winnings, it just gives you smaller
losses.
Dear Solomon,
Yours for winning,
Dear Gamemaster:
Thanks!
Happy to help, Jeff. First of all, Dan Paymar's book is available at
Conjelco's web site (www.conjelco.com). What you hear about the
Stratosphere is true, but that property has had its problems, so have a Plan
"B". Check Skip Hughes' site for the location of good games. It's at
www.vid-poker.com/ Finally, get a good VP training program for yourself. I
just got Bob Dancer presents WinPoker and it's very good. Conjelco may have
it; if not, check Huntington Press. The game you should learn is Deuces Wild.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
Dear Barry,
Yours for winning,
Hi!
Dear Yurik,
Yours for winning,
Dear Gamemaster:
Also, noticed a 15 to 1 payout for any blackjack in Laughlin. This only
applies to the first hand dealt off a single deck. I found it quite amusing
that several people felt this was a good side bet. What makes it even more
interesting is that you can bet for the dealer as well as yourself. They even
have a jackpot (progressive) if you bet both side bets. A lot of people
thought this was the cat's meow.
Your analysis and comments to both will be appreciated.
I'm glad you enjoyed the article. I thought 'Royal Match' was dead, or I
would have included it. At he payouts you described, in a single-deck game,
the casino has a 3.8% edge on that bet. At a 6-deck game, however, the
player has an edge of about 1%.
As for the 15-1 payout for any 'natural', the probability of a Blackjack
'off the top' of a single deck is 4.83%, a 1 in 21 shot for which you get
paid 15 to 1. You can see how big the casino's edge is on that bet. The
probability of tied naturals is .177%, so with a progressive jackpot there
is a point at which that bet will have positive expected value.
Yours for winning, Dear Gamemaster
Dear Rich,
Regarding a 'positive' deck at Blackjack, this is determined by 'counting'
the cards and when there are a higher proportion of 10s and Aces remaining
than 'small' cards (2-6), the deck is considered favorable for the player.
A complete explanation can be found at my web site on the Blackjack Page.
Team play is a very effective way to approach the game, IF all the team
members are counters and they can combine their $$$. You'll need a minimum
of $6000 for this approach and you need to learn counting, first. Why not
get your group together and start on my lessons? E-mail me if you need help.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
The expected return is based upon the pay schedule and whether or not the
player (you) plays each hand properly. This return is a percentage of all
the $$$ put it. Thus, a game with a 98% return will, in the long run,
return 98% of all the $$$ put through it. In the short term, it could
return 102% or 96%.
Does is mean that if I play 100 hands, 98 of them will be
winners?
Don't I wish! No, it's just a return on the $$$. In most video poker
games, you'll lose 50% or more of the hands. But remember, some hands pay
50, 60 or more for each coin played.
2. Is the payout or ER higher on video blackjack or video poker?
Few video blackjack games return as much as very good video poker games.
It's primarily because the video games usually pay even money on a
Blackjack. There are some which pay 3:2, however.
Also, if you know of somewhere I can find definitions used for payout, ER,
etc., it would better help me to understand some of the discussions.
Every serious player should own Dan Paymar's book, "Video Poker-Precision Play."
Thanks in advance,
Thanks Tony.
Yours for winning, |