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FRONT PAGE - Back to THE ADVISOR PAGE Hey GameMaster, quick question.
Hi, Chris.
I made a few assumptions here, so you'll need to adjust accordingly, but my
figures should give you a fairly accurate comparison.
If you play a single-deck Blackjack game where the dealer hits A-6, no DAS
is allowed, but you may double on any first two cards and receive 60%
penetration, the risk of losing all $300 is about 33% with a $5-$20 betting
spread. Your "expectation" is to make $88 if you play 50 hands per hour
for 16 hours, or 800 hands in total. If you set a goal of winning $500,
the possibility of reaching that is about 22%.
If you play full-pay Deuces Wild for 16 hours at a rate of 550 hands/hour,
you'll get in about 8800 hands if the video poker gods don't bite you
first. Assuming you make it all the way through, your expectation is to
win about $75. The risk of losing $300 is 47% and the probability of
hitting a $500 goal is 23%.
So, you can see that the expectation is about the same and the possibility
of making $500 is about the same, but the risk at Video Poker is higher.
At the Blackjack game, you'll be betting approximately $7.50 per hand on
average or 50 X $7.50 = $375 per hour. At the Deuces Wild game, you'll be
betting $1.25 X 550 = $688 per hour. That, combined with the higher
variance of the Video Poker game, is what elevates the risk.
Another factor to consider in this equation is the value of comps and/or
slot club cash back. It's not likely that a $5-$20 bettor at Blackjack is
going to get much more than a buffet comp, but if the casino has a .33%
cash back option, you'll make an additional $35 or so from that. Yet, when
you put it all together, it seems to me that the Blackjack will give you a
better shot at staying "in action" during your trip, especially when you
consider that there's a 10% chance of losing $300 at the Deuces game in
just 5 hours of play.
What ever you decide to do, I wish you good luck.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, Hi, Patti. In a typical game, each increase of 1 in the true count increases the
player's advantage by 0.5%. Also, the true count will tell you when you
should vary from basic strategy in the play of the hand. For more
information, see the article "The True Count" on the Blackjack Page of my
site. I hope this helps.
Yours for winning, GameMaster,
Thanks for the compliments. We hope you'll visit often. When playing 6-shoe, $5 blackjack your suggested betting is:
+1-$5,+2-$10,+3-$20,+4-$40,+5-$50,+6-$60 with a $3000 (50x$60) bankroll. Question 1. Is it your contention that you will never really get to the
bottom
of the $3,000 if you play exactly according to the script? What I'm really
getting at is it okay to spend the money above $3,000 as long as you
always have
$3,000 in your blackjack stash? The $3000 bankroll which I recommend is a minimum and, depending upon the
specifics of the game one is playing, it carries about a 10% risk of "ruin"
or total loss. To get to the point where you "siphon" off $$$ from the
bankroll, while still pretty well assuring that the well won't run dry so
to speak, the bankroll should be at least $6000 and the betting schedule
should remain the same. Question 2. To increase your expected earnings while playing the $5 game
mentioned above, what about leaving the 0,+1 at $5 but doubling the
positive count bets
to +2-$20,+3-$40,+4-$80,+5-$100,+6=$120. I understand the obvious "don't
look
like a counter" ramification but I'm asking about the mathematics. The earnings will roughly double, but so will the 'swings' (variance) in
the bankroll. In this scenario, a $6000 bankroll would be the minimum for
a 10% risk of ruin and a $12,000 bank would be much more practical.
Thanks in advance for your answers and thanks again for the terrific
lessons! You're welcome, Doug.
Yours for winning, Hi - First the compliment. Now the reason for my comment. Your article on
VP pay schedules mentions no FPDW outside of Vegas. I
recognize that Vegas is no. 1, especially from a long
ways from Nevada, but don't forget Reno and Laughlin.
I'm far from an expert on Laughlin, but the Golden
Nugget had a bank of quarter FPDW machines over
Christmas. And I understand that there may be a few
more elsewhere down there. In Reno there are quite a
few. I only know downtown remotely well, but there
are supposed to be a few in Circus Circus (well
hidden) and I have regularly played the progressive
FPDW machines in Silver Legacy. I understand from
others and other boards that the Peppermill has some
also. The machines I have played have the 100.7%
schedule, even the SL's progressives. In future articles you might mention these
places.
Hello, Frank.
Yours for winning, Gamemaster, Hi, Chris.
Thanks for the feedback, but my review wasn't based upon the connection
available to the casino, but for the games offered there. Yours is the
first complaint I've heard regarding an inability to stay connected. I'm
willing to bet (and I'm not a gambler) that you are using a Winmodem, that
is, a modem which requires your central processing unit to do all the work
and it's getting overloaded which breaks your connection. I know how that
is, because I had one also and couldn't stay connected to many sites. When
I upgraded to a "hardware" modem and put in a 350 MHz processor, all my
problems stopped. Let me ask you, is the casino a loser because you can't stay connected?
How long do you think they'd stay in business if what's happening to you
happened to everyone? I'll stand by my review. No I have Media One Cable. I had numerous connection problems earlier in
the evening. I have never had any problems with any other Casino. I
thought perhaps the rule was that when you start to go on a winning streak,
you get a disconnect. They offer only three games - blackjack in several variations, Slots and
Roulette. So if you get tired of playing Blackjack and want to play Poker
for a while, you can't. Since they feel free to reference your glowing
review, you might inquire why they don't post their games winning
percentages like most reputable Casino's do. Overall with the lack of
posted winning percentages, constant disconnects, and sometime very slow
play, I would rate this Casino as the worst I have visited. Personally I think if you just look at how the games look, you will miss
most of what makes a quality online Casino.
Thanks for the clarification on the modem. I'm a writer, not a techie, so
I can't explain all the disconnects, yet I doubt that it's because you were
on a winning streak. But, who can say for sure? I evaluate casinos by the
mathematical odds which they offer, not on their "look" nor on the
reliability of their server. Sure, they could be cheating, but the
experience of many of our readers who have played there doesn't indicate
that. As for a statement of their audited percentage of return, that's a
good idea and I'll pass it on to them.
But, you've taken the most effective step of all: If you're unhappy with a
place, don't give them your business; that's what I'd do, too.
Yours for winning,
Hi Gamemaster, By the way, one of your "rags" rules finally gave me an easy one for
low three-card straights over flushes. I'd figured out 4-card flushes
always beat outside straights with four cards (after all, 9 cards left to
fill the flush vs. eight to fill the straight), and I kept getting beeped at
by the computer when I followed this through with the three-card variety.
But now I can remember it's different "down in the cellar." Great! Now I just wish that the machines weren't always so busy out at
Harrah's and Player's on the weekends with everyone playing Pick'em! Hi, Marge. I also play at Harrah's and Players (that's what's represented in the
'diary'), but I'm usually able to get in there during the week so the
crowds are a lot smaller.
Good luck to you and be sure to check back for the next two parts of the
series. And who knows....it might be me sitting beside you the next time
you play.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, Hi, Terry.
Yours for winning, Gamemaster, Hello, Raymund. I'm glad to help. Have you been here in the Philippines? More importantly have you played
here? Not recently. Well if not, in my city here in the Philippines , we only have one
casino with 6 blackjack tables and all the tables have the same rules: 6d,
das,
da2, S17, early surrender, but no surrender on ace showing; 75-80% pen,
EUROPEAN NO
HOLE (ENH) CARD, 6 BURN CARDS AFTER EVERY SHUFFLE , 1 BURN CARD B4 EVERY
DEAL, 1
BURN CARD B4 THE DEALER PLAYS HIS HAND , NO DISCARD TRAY (YOU CANNOT ESTIMATE
THE DECKS PLAYED OR THE DECKS REMAINING)...pretty weird rules, huh? My questions are: 1. Will the correct basic strategy change for the ENH? if so ,can you pls.
direct me to some websites which show the correct basic strategy for the enh
variation? Yes, it does change quite a bit, but if you'll go to our new site, The
GameMaster's Arcade (www.gamemasterarcade.com) and then proceed to the
Blackjack game from the Roman Palace Casino, you'll find it's just like the
game in your town. Just click on the strategy that you'll find there and
print it out. Voila! The correct strategy. 2. When using basic strategy variations (like 10,2 vs 6 etc.) will the
true
count indices change for the ENH? Can you please send me the indices if it's
no trouble? These do not change. 3. Can you pls. recommend a good counting system ideal for our rules?
Remember that we don't have any discard trays (we cannot estimate the number
of decks played) so it's virtually impossible to estimate the true count... The April article for my Blackjack column is just what you need. There
you'll find a discussion of "unbalanced" counts which are very effective,
yet do not require a true count adjustment. 4. BJ books here in the Phils. are basically non-existant. Where can I
find them? Our favorite on-line retailer is Cojelco which is at www.conjelco.com/
Also, my article on unbalanced counts gives you the names of the books to buy. 5. Most importantly, are the BJ games here worth playing at all?
It all depends upon the bet spread you can get. First I'd calculate the
exact penetration which is offered by counting the actual number of cards
put into play for each shoe. Then, if it's at least 65%, you have a
fighting chance if you can get (and afford) a 1-12 bet spread. But bear in
mind that your bankroll will fluctuate quite a bit, because your edge will
be only about 1%. Proper money management is crucial. Thanks for your responses in advance and more power to you and your
sites... Thank you, Raymund. Good luck to you and let me know if I can be of
further help.
Yours for winning, Dear GameMaster, Is there a different basic strategy for double exposure? It's considerably different; in fact, almost completely different and it
requires a lot of study.
Where can I find more info about double exposure blackjack? Stanford Wong covers the game completely in his book "Professional Blackjack". Am I better off playing a 2 deck or 6 deck game with good rules? I assume you're talking about "regular" Blackjack here. Two-deck games are
usually better, but it depends upon not only the rules, but also the
penetration offered. All things being equal, however, the two-deck game is
far superior.
I look forward to hearing from you. Good luck, Peter. Let us know how you do.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, Hi, yes he's still around. His latest incarnation is teaching people to "Master the Flow" at Blackjack. From all that I've read about it, this is just a simplified Basic Strategy and light-weight counting system that sells for $39.95 on infomercials he's running on late-night TV. If the description of his method is accurate, you can save your $$$ and get all that info. right here for free.
Yours for winning, GameMaster, Hello, Mark. Glad you found us. I don't sell strategy cards, but others do; some are listed on my "Personal links" page. However, what I recommend is that you purchase TomSki's Video Poker Strategy Master, a great program which can generate strategy charts for almost any Video Poker game. It's available at www.zamzone.com/, from conjelco at www.conjelco.com and other retailers on the Web.
Yours for winning, GameMaster. I know the proposition bets are not good bets, however I played a $5.00 check on the hard eight and then parlayed the winnings to $450.00 on back to back hard eight's. This was only a $5.00 investment. So, if you have the courage to lose your
winnings you can make 900% on a $5.00 bet. Hello, Barney. I like to look at negative-expectation games (games where the house has a fixed edge against me) in terms of 'expectation'. For example, if you bet $10 at a game where the house has a 10% edge, you'll either win $10 or lose $10, but the 'expectation' is to lose $1. Play that game long enough and the $1 'tax' will eventually catch up with you. In craps, a hard 8 pays 9 to 1, but it's actually a 10 to 1 occurrence, so the casino's edge is 9.09% on that bet. What that means is you basically 'gave' the casino 9.09% on the first $5 bet or 4.5 cents and then you 'gave' them 45 cents on the second bet which was $50. So, your 'expectation' was a minus 50 cents for those two bets. Contrast that with a $5 pass line bet where the edge is 1.41% and a $50 come bet where the edge is the same. The total 'tax' on those bets is 7 cents. The payoff isn't nearly as spectacular, but the cost to you is a lot less. That said, the best way to reduce your 'tax' at a negative-expectation game is to make as few bets as possible. You certainly did that here and it worked.....this time. But how would you like to make a living waiting for back-to-back hard 8s? Not my game.
Yours for winning, |